Futures
LME : LME three-month tin closed on the electronic platform on Aug 24 at $55,895/mt, down $175, down 0.31%, with an intraday high of 56,035 and low of 55,395; with London base metals showing mixed performance, tin pulled back slightly, but LME tin inventory fell 155 mt to 5,230 mt on Aug 24, with cancelled warrants at 755 mt, accounting for 14.44%, continuing to hit a new stage low — the marginal tightening of spot cargo supply outside China provided bottom support for tin prices.
China (Aug 24 daytime session) : The most-traded SHFE tin contract completed the transition to the 2610 contract. The 2609 contract closed at 427,110 yuan/mt, down 580 yuan, down 0.14%, opening at 427,800, high 429,750, low 423,300, with volume of 102,033 lots and open interest of 24,477 lots (down 5,427 lots day-on-day); the 2610 contract closed at 427,590 yuan/mt, down 650 yuan, down 0.15%, opening at 430,800, high 430,800, low 423,730, with volume of 83,484 lots and open interest of 36,302 lots (up 165 lots day-on-day) — the 2610 officially took over as the most-traded contract, but after shooting up to 43,114 on Aug 21, it failed to retest 430,000 for two consecutive sessions, and 427,000 became the new consolidation level at highs.
Inventory:
- LME tin inventory 5,230 mt (Aug 24, -155 mt) , with a cancellation ratio of 14.44% — hard destocking outside China continued, and the "squeeze backdrop" of low inventory + high cancellations remains unbroken;
- SHFE tin inventory about 5,452 mt (increased to 5,452 mt on Aug 14 + 324 mt from Guangdong inbound), total exchange tin inventory (LME+SHFE) about 10.7kt;
macro: Sep rate hike probability 59%/41% seesaw, two anchors this week — Aug 26 PCE + Aug 28 Wo Shi's Jackson Hole debut
(1) CME FedWatch Aug 24: Sep unchanged 59.0%, hike 25bp 41.0%. Nov unchanged 46.6%, hike 25bp 44.8%, hike 50bp 8.6% — "Short-term rate hike expectations have marginally heated up but divergences are evident", and hawkish forces have not dissipated. Kashkari on Aug 24 said "the US Treasury market is functioning normally", downplaying the need for Treasury intervention, leaving hawkish room for Wo Shi's speech.
(2) One of this week's two anchors: Aug 26 20:30 (Beijing time) July PCE. Overall PCE is expected at YoY 3.6% (June: 3.7%) and +0.15% MoM; core PCE is expected at YoY 3.3% unchanged , with MoM +0.25% (only +0.1% in June). The acceleration in core MoM is the key risk : In July PPI, the portfolio management fee of +6.5% will directly feed into the PCE financial services item, which is not covered by CPI. Capital Economics expects core PCE MoM to be about +0.21%, higher than the recent trend. If PCE meets or falls short of expectations, the probability of a rate hike will drop from 41% further, pushing tin towards 430,000; if core MoM is ≥0.25%, the probability will swing back from 41% to 55%+, testing support at 423,000 .
(3) Second anchor this week: August 28 Warsh's Jackson Hole debut (ET 10:00, Beijing time Aug 28 22:00). This is Warsh's first Jackson Hole appearance since becoming chair on May 22, with the theme "Financial Innovation: Payment and Policy Implications." Multiple analyses agree: Warsh has so far avoided forward guidance and canceled the dot plot in June, market expectations for clear interest rate signals from him may be disappointed . Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard bluntly said, "The Fed's credibility is at risk — the market is beginning to believe the committee does not genuinely care about bringing inflation down to 2%," the 20-minute speech is a "decisive sentence" before the September 16 FOMC . Xinhua Finance's Yan Lei pointed out that "the speech on August 28 may release some policy signals, but market skepticism may be hard to subsiding."
(4) Long-end US Treasurys are the shadow line : After the 30-year yield broke 5.33%, Bessent doubled the long-end repo purchase ceiling to $4 billion on August 19, but the "fever reducer" effect lased less than 24 hours, rebounding to 5.251% on August 20; Kashkari said on August 24 that the market is functioning normally — the high long-term rates are an actual constraint on Warsh's hawkish stance and the underlying reason why the tin "easing trade" has not been realised unilaterally .
(5) Geopolitics and AI chain : The situation in the Straits of Hormuz is volatile (Iran war pushes up energy costs, oil prices rising again this month); NVIDIA's FY2Q earnings on August 27 (guide ~$91 billion, gross margin 75%) will land simultaneously. If AI Capex exceeds expectations again, tin's "solder alpha" short-term sentiment will be further reinforced.
Fundamentals: Yinman’s full shutdown + the continuation of the Wa State mining ban, but the off-season in demand + five consecutive weeks of increases in social inventory constrained the rise
(1) Supply-side hard constraints have not eased: The mining ban in Myanmar’s Wa State continued, and the ore supply tightness pattern remained unchanged; tin ore imports fell in July, and the overall supply side still faced certain constraints; Yinman Mining’s mining & beneficiation + tailings were fully shut down (impacting tin metal content by about 1,000 mt, with the duration until resuming production yet to be determined), remaining a regional hard reduction on China’s ore supply side.
(2) Demand-side dual pressure from the “off-season + high prices”: SMM’s closing commentary clearly noted that “downstream demand is average, and social inventory has continued to rebound recently, making it difficult to provide more support”; “domestic downstream demand is relatively cautious, processing enterprises are maintaining normal production, and the spot market is showing a slight premium.” Nanhua Futures characterized it as “tin prices consolidate at highs; relatively high prices suppress actual buying activity, and participants are generally cautious”—this is consistent with the earlier logic of “valuation repair driven by low inventory,” but demand for electronics/solder has not materially strengthened.
(3) Smelting and TCs: Yunnan 40% tin concentrates TCs were about 17,900 yuan/mt, and Guangxi 60% TCs were 14,650 yuan/mt. Ore supply tightness has eased compared with the earlier period but has not loosened; the operating rate of refined tin was 82.91% in Yunnan and 32.79% in Jiangxi, at a low level; China’s refined tin production in July was 15,290 mt (-140 mt MoM).
Spot market
8/24 spot: Futures prices pulled back by 3,500; suppliers held prices firm, and downstream made just-in-time procurement.
Transactions: Traders held prices firm while selling; downstream solder plants made just-in-time procurement. The trading atmosphere was steady, tin prices adjusted slightly, and market conditions were moderate. Some merchants’ shipments were still not very ideal, while downstream consumer enterprises took on an appropriate amount of just-in-time demand—the 423,000–427,000 range was the main level at which downstream was willing to fix prices, and basically no orders were placed above 430,000.
[Data Source Statement: Other data aside from public information are processed by SMM based on public information and market communication, relying on SMM’s internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
![The most-traded SHFE tin contract continues to consolidate, while the spot market is dominated by small orders and just-in-time procurement [SMM Tin Futures Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/nBLhE20251217171750.jpg)
![SHFE tin 428,000 high-level turnover, awaiting 8/26 PCE and Jackson Hole to set the tone [SMM Tin Morning News]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/pLauM20251217171751.jpg)
