SHFE tin retreated after a rapid rise and then rebounded during the week, with spot tin trading limited in the off-season and mainly driven by rigid demand [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, August 24, 2026

Market review: Last week, the most-traded SHFE tin contract first rose and then fell, swinging wildly, with macro sentiment repeatedly dominating the short-term pace. Early in the week, mild PPI data cooled expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, boosting bullish sentiment, and futures shot up to test the 430,000 yuan/mt threshold; subsequently, after the bullish news was priced in, bulls took profits in a concentrated manner, the futures center pulled back markedly and at one point tested support at the 420,000 yuan/mt round-number level. Toward the weekend, supported by easing trades and low inventory, prices rebounded and held firm near 428,000 yuan/mt, with the overall trading range hovering around 420,000–430,000 yuan/mt. In the tin ingot spot market, trading performance was closely tied to futures moves. Early in the week, elevated prices severely suppressed downstream purchase willingness, and the market saw sluggish real orders; mid-week, the futures pullback spurred a brief release of some rigid-demand pricing and restocking orders, and the inquiry atmosphere recovered; however, after prices returned above 428,000 yuan/mt, end-user enterprises again turned cautious, and overall trading remained prudent amid the off-season.

Market forecast:

On the international macro front, broad cooling in US inflation data continued to cool market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. CPI, PPI, and retail sales data released last week all appeared weak, and the probability of a September rate hike stayed at a low level of around 30%, with easing trades becoming the core macro backdrop supporting tin prices. In addition, the upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Annual Symposium is in the spotlight. The market generally expects the Fed Chairman not to release clear rate signals, but any dovish remarks could further lift risk appetite. China’s tin ore market overall remained characterized by unchanged hard supply constraints while rigid demand persisted on the demand side. In terms of supply, disruptions on the ore side continued: China’s Yinman Mining’s mining, beneficiation, and tailings systems were fully shut down, with the duration of the shutdown still uncertain; if it extends into Q4, it will significantly widen China’s ore supply deficit. Meanwhile, the Wa State mining ban policy continued, with the ceiling for resuming production firmly capped at 40%–50% of pre-ban levels. Although Myanmar’s tin ore exports to China rebounded, they remained far below normal levels, and the pattern of supply is tight was unchanged. In terms of demand, downstream solder enterprises released some rigid-demand pricing when tin prices pulled back to relatively low levels, but overall they still mainly purchased as needed; elevated AI server capex provided medium and long-term underpinning for solder demand. On the inventory side, LME tin inventory stayed at an absolute historical low, with deliverable supply outside China continuing to tighten, while China’s social inventory accumulated somewhat due to concentrated inbound warehousing in Guangdong; total exchange inventory still remained at a relatively low level. Overall, supported jointly by a warmer macro backdrop and strong supply constraints, downside support for tin prices remained solid. After last week’s surge and pullback, prices rebounded again to reclaim key levels, showing strong resilience. Tin prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note this week, with around 428,000 yuan/mt potentially becoming a new central battleground for bulls and bears, and the upside is expected to test the high-price zone again. Investors may watch for positioning opportunities after pullbacks, while also paying attention to how the upcoming PCE data and central bank symposium remarks guide market sentiment.