SHFE tin 428,000 high-level turnover, awaiting 8/26 PCE and Jackson Hole to set the tone [SMM Tin Morning News]

Futures

LME : LME three-month tin on the electronic session on Aug 21 closed at $56,070/mt, up $220 or +0.39%, with an intraday high near $56,200. On a day when all LME base metals rallied, tin continued to outperform most of them (zinc +1.07%, lead +0.64%, copper -0.07%, nickel -0.98%, aluminum -1.30%). LME tin inventory fell 130 mt to about 1,715 mt on Aug 20 and edged back to around 1,740 mt on Aug 21, still at an absolute historical low, with the tight supply of deliverable material outside China unchanged.

China (daytime session on Aug 21 → night session at 22:02): SHFE tin SN2609 closed the daytime session at 428,570 yuan/mt, up 3,520 yuan or +0.83%, opened at 424,000, hit a high of 431,140 and a low of 423,100, with volume of 110,018 lots and open interest of 29,904 lots (down 928 lots for the day); the night session at 22:02 reported 427,430 yuan/mt, down 260 yuan or -0.06%, with a high of 429,750 and a low of 426,660 — after shooting up in the daytime session, the night session failed to continue the rally, and the 430,000 mark failed a second test, shifting to high-level churning in the late session on Friday. The SN2610 contract closed the daytime session at 429,030, with open interest up 4,902 lots to 36,137 lots, as the most-traded contract is accelerating its rollover to the Oct contract.

Macro: The probability of a Sep rate hike has swung back from 36.2% to around 41%, and the Aug 26 PCE is the last solid anchor before Jackson Hole.

(1) Consensus PCE forecast: headline +3.6% YoY and core +3.3% YoY, but with accelerating MoM.​ The Jul PCE will be released on Aug 26 (8:30 am ET). Multiple sources (RBC, Oxford, Cleveland Nowcast, CMC) are consistent — headline PCE YoY 3.6%(3.7% in Jun), MoM +0.1%; core PCE YoY 3.3% unchanged, MoM +0.2%(+0.1% in Jun). Regards of Wall Street noted that "the 3.3% annual rate masks a 2.5x acceleration in July's MoM," because the +6.5% in portfolio management fees from PPI will feed directly into PCE's financial services item, which CPI does not cover — If the PCE MoM exceeds expectations by more than 0.25 percentage points, the probability of a Sep rate hike could rise again from the current ~41% to above 55%.

(2) The probability of a Sep rate hike has already swung back from 36.2% on the morning of Aug 21 to around 41%.​ Update as of Aug 24: CME FedWatch shows a ~41% probability of a 25bp rate hike in Sep and ~59% probability of holding steady. The reason is that the 30-year US Treasury yield broke 5.25% again, the fiscal deficit hit a record $1.799 trillion, and Bessent's long-term bond repurchase "fever shot" failed within 24 hours, with the rise in long-term rates itself leaving room for the Walsh hawkish stance.

(3) Walsh's Jackson Hole debut on August 28 at 10 a.m. Eastern Time.​ This is the most important policy signal window 21 days before the September 16 FOMC; former Philadelphia and St. Louis Fed presidents warned that "if only structural statements are made without substantive explanations on fighting inflation, the Fed's credibility will be under pressure."August 26 PCE + August 28 Walsh are the twin anchors in autumn that will determine whether tin surges to 433,000 or falls back to 420,000.

(4) AI chain and geopolitics: Nvidia's FY2Q earnings (guide ~$91 billion, gross margin 75%, zero China revenue) will be released simultaneously on the evening of August 26; if AI Capex again exceeds expectations, tin "solder alpha" short-term sentiment will be further boosted; the Middle East/Iran war pushing up August energy costs also sets mines for PCE upside.

Fundamentals: Yinman fully halted unresolved + Indonesia's Bangka illegal mine crackdown, supply hard constraints but not one-way upward push

(1) Yinman Mining remains fully halted, production resumption duration unknown (hard support).​ Xingye Silver&Tin repeatedly confirmed on July 31, August 6, and August 13: Yinman Mining's mining system and beneficiation-tailings system have both been halted; the core tin-silver mine with an annual capacity of 1.65 million mt; the accident cause and cause of death are under investigation; "the duration of the halt cannot be determined, and the impact on current period and full-year performance cannot be accurately estimated for now." Based on a 1-2 month short halt, the estimated impact on tin metal content is about 1,000 mt (3%–4% of China's tin concentrates), and if prolonged to Q4, the gap will widen.

(2) Indonesia's Bangka illegal mine crackdown: not a one-way upward push; need to distinguish compliance growth.​ Kuang Lifang on August 20: Indonesia plans to close about 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung (informal mining accounts for about 80% of local output, with annual illegal exports up to about 12,000 mt), but compliant capacity such as PT Timah is also resuming/expanding production — if the crackdown is faster than formal recovery, supply disruption intensifies; if slower, it is offset. Do not simply interpret this as "Indonesia reducing supply again."

Spot market

trading: "Bullish funds are actively long, trading has slightly recovered, but buying at high levels remains weak." After the daytime session surged to 431,140,downstream solder and alloy plants completed small batch just-in-time pricing below 428,000 (424,000–426,000), and basically did not place orders above 430,000.

[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are irrelevant to SMM.】