SHFE tin 2609 night session rose 2.15% to 426,800, consolidating at highs with heightened volatility above 420,000 [SMM tin morning report]

Futures
LME: Three-month LME tin closed at $55,205/mt on July 30, surging 2.46% to lead gains among London base metals (copper +1.60%, zinc +1.12%, nickel +1.04%). The V-shaped rebound that closed at $53,850/mt in the previous session (July 29) was decisively confirmed as an upside breakout on July 30, taking the $55,000/mt round-number level in one fell swoop and hitting a recent high.

China (July 30 daytime session → night session): SHFE tin 2609 retreated after a rapid rise in the daytime session, closing at 416,770 yuan/mt, up 0.47%, after opening higher and moving up by more than 2% in early trade before narrowing gains. In the night session (22:02), the 2609 contract was at 423,540 yuan/mt, up 1.37%, with an open of 419,000, a low of 417,700, and a high of 424,500, and open interest of 54,390 lots – completing a second upward push intraday from "daytime pullback → night session renewed attack," turning the 420,000 level from resistance into a new support-testing zone.

Macro
(1) US Fed held steady on July 29 at 9:3, with historically wide hawkish dissent but expectations pulling back. The FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting; three regional Fed presidents – Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan – demanded a 25bp hike, marking the first time since 2016 with three dissenting votes in the same direction. At the press conference, Warsh stuck to a hawkish tone: "the inflation problem cannot be solved in nine weeks" and "will not hesitate to act as needed and appropriate," but at the same time substantially softened forward guidance, stressing that "financial conditions tightening accomplished by markets on their own is a benign development."

Market expectations shifted dramatically: ahead of the meeting, the probability of a July hike had reached as high as 38%, with 1.66 hikes priced in for the year; after the meeting, CME pricing adjusted to 1.32 hikes for the year and a 57.4% probability of a September hike – "hike postponed, possibly no further moves this year" became the core view of Huafu Macro. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 8bp to 4.24%, and the US dollar index dropped 0.5% to 100.9, providing positive short-term support for non-yielding assets like base metals.

(2) US tech stocks slumped, AI narrative under near-term pressure but unbroken. All three major US stock indices closed lower after the Fed decision; Nvidia fell over 3%, Micron tumbled nearly 10%, Intel dropped more than 5%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 4.5% over two days. A-shares' afternoon tech sector rebounded under pressure but with limited strength; tin's "AI solder alpha" was briefly suppressed by tech de-leveraging, but the long-cycle logic remains intact.

(3) Middle East situation escalating, adding variables to the inflation path. Iran seeks to rewrite the rules of engagement with the US, while the US pressures Iran’s regional proxies through strikes. The risk of energy supply-chain premiums pushing inflation higher for a second round persists, reinforcing Warsh's narrative that "supply shocks drive up inflation."

Fundamentals
(1) Supply: Tight ore, limited ingots, and low inventory amplify elasticity. The rainy season in Myanmar extends to late August, causing water accumulation in mines and logistics disruptions. Wa State’s tin ore output was only 6,392 mt in physical content in June, and China's tin ore imports in July are expected to remain roughly flat MoM. The bullish factor of Wa State’s slow production resumption has already been priced in, with no major production halt events in the short term, but supply contraction expectations due to the rainy season have not fully materialized. Indonesia’s tin ingot imports in July are expected to recover somewhat MoM.

(2) Demand: Solder operations improved, but high-price acceptance awaits verification. The operating rate of solder enterprises in June was 78.8%, up 4.6 percentage points from May; however, after spot prices surged on July 30, downstream users turned cautious and stayed on the sidelines, and the absorption of high-priced spot cargo still needs verification. Stockpiling for new Apple/Huawei models in late August will be the next demand catalyst.

Spot Market
On July 30, the daytime session moved higher following futures, and the night session’s 2609 contract surged to 423,540. On July 31, spot prices are expected to open at 422,000–426,000 yuan/mt. Brand premiums remained stratified: minor brands +500~+900, Yunzi +900~+1,200, and Yunnan Tin +1,200~+1,500.
Transaction outlook: Solder plants’ resistance to prices above 420,000 will intensify further, and downstream buying orders will be cautious near the 418,000+ level. However, if the 2609 contract’s night session high of 424,500 can hold, traders may increasingly hold back from selling, potentially causing spot premiums to widen passively. The key is whether today’s morning session can see high volume in the 423,000–425,000 range, which will determine whether this marks the start of a new major uptrend or a final rally within the 420,000-425,000 box.

[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.]