SMM Analysis:China's ESS Sector's Aluminum Semis Consumption to Reach 800,000 mt

SMM, December 3，

Driven by the global wave of clean energy transition, the ESS industry is experiencing steady growth. Its core value lies in effectively mitigating the inherent intermittency and volatility of renewable energy sources such as wind and PV, providing a critical guarantee for stable clean power output. This development trend will sustainably boost the demand for key metals in the ESS industry chain, with aluminum semis, as one of the core materials, mainly used in aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil, and aluminum extrusion.

I. Scale of Aluminum Semis Consumption in ESS

According to SMM calculations, the aluminum semis consumption per 1 GWh of ESS is approximately 2,310 mt, with aluminum extrusion accounting for 880 mt. In terms of industry growth momentum, global battery cell production is entering a period of rapid expansion: reaching a scale of 363 GWh in 2024, and expected to climb to 540 GWh in 2025, up 48.8% YoY; even with an expanded base, the growth rate in 2026 will still maintain a high level of 35.2%, with global battery cell production expected to reach 730 GWh.

SMM survey results show that China's ESS battery cabin shipments in 2025 are expected to reach 350 GWh, accounting for over 80% of global shipments, corresponding to an aluminum semis consumption of around 800,000 mt. Breaking down to aluminum extrusion, the 2025 production related to ESS is expected to be about 300,000 mt, with an additional 105,000 mt in 2026. However, it should be noted that with the continuous iteration of large cell technology, there is downside room for the unit usage of aluminum structural components in ESS, and in the long term, the single consumption of aluminum semis is still expected to be optimized.

II. Core Application Scenarios of Aluminum Extrusion in the ESS Industry

Aluminum extrusion, with its characteristics of lightweight, corrosion resistance, and excellent processing performance, has been deeply integrated into the core components of ESS, mainly applied in three key areas:

Battery module stage: primarily used for ESS battery cell casings;

Pack packaging stage: primarily used for battery trays;

ESS cabinet system: covering ESS enclosure, liquid cooling plates, and heat sinks, among other key components.

III. Calculation Logic for Single Consumption of Aluminum Extrusion in ESS

This calculation of single consumption of aluminum extrusion is based on two types of ESS with higher market share: the 5 MWh ESS prevalent on the power generation and grid side, and the 261 KWh system prevalent on the user side. The specific calculation logic is divided into three steps:

Calculate the aluminum extrusion usage per battery cluster: (weight of the battery module casing in a single Pack + weight of a single battery tray) × number of Packs required for a battery cluster;

Calculate the aluminum extrusion usage per ESS: weight of aluminum extrusion per battery cluster × number of battery clusters required for the ESS cabinet + unit weight of liquid cooling plates × quantity required + unit weight of heat sinks × quantity required + weight of ESS enclosure × corresponding market share;

Calculate the industry-weighted average single consumption: combining the market shares of the two types of ESS on the power generation and grid side and the user side, along with China's ESS battery cabin shipment data, the weighted calculation ultimately yields an aluminum extrusion single consumption of 880 mt/GWh.