Imports of Unwrought Aluminum Alloy in October 2025 Plunged YoY to 76,400 mt [SMM Analysis]

The General Administration of Customs recently released import and export data for October 2025. Customs data showed that:

In October 2025, unwrought aluminum alloy imports totaled 76,400 mt, down 33.8% YoY and down 7.1% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to October 2025 reached 841,000 mt, down 16.4% YoY.

In October 2025, unwrought aluminum alloy exports totaled 30,900 mt, up 50.7% YoY and up 31.6% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to October 2025 reached 228,700 mt, up 13.8% YoY.

By import source, the top five countries for China's unwrought non-alloy aluminum imports in October 2025 were Malaysia (24,600 mt, 32%), Russia (21,700 mt, 28%), Thailand (9,600 mt, 13%), Vietnam (5,400 mt, 7%), and Indonesia (2,300 mt, 3%), with the remaining sources accounting for 17% combined. Among them, imports from the top three source countries saw slight decreases that month.

In October 2025, China's unwrought non-alloy aluminum exports reached 30,900 mt, an increase of 7,400 mt MoM, hitting a new high in nearly five years. By export structure, exports to Japan rose significantly by 40% MoM to 16,200 mt, remaining the top export destination with its share rebounding to over 50%. Additionally, exports to Mexico and India also showed significant growth MoM. In terms of trade mode, processing trade remained the primary method for China's unwrought non-alloy aluminum exports.

Overall, in October 2025, China's imports of unwrought aluminum alloy declined both MoM and YoY, while exports continued to show significant growth. The primary driver of this trend was the persistent inversion of the aluminum alloy price spread between domestic and overseas markets throughout the year, which directly reduced the cost-effectiveness of imports. Additionally, tight scrap supply and rising demand in Japan, South Korea, and India pushed up local aluminum scrap and alloy ingot prices, attracting Southeast Asian aluminum alloy ingot resources to divert, further suppressing China's import volume. Currently, overseas ADC12 offers remain at $2,600–2,630/mt, with price resilience significantly higher than in the domestic market. The widening of immediate import losses will continue to constrain import willingness. Based on this, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy are expected to remain low in November-December, with full-year imports likely to decline sharply by around 18% YoY.