Peak Season End-Use Demand Robust, Copper Foil Industry Operating Rate in China Rises for Fifth Consecutive Month This Year [SMM Analysis]

SMM October 14 News:

According to SMM, China's copper foil enterprise operating rate reached 82.17% in September 2025, up 3.73 percentage points MoM and up 7.54 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate for large enterprises was 87.73%, for medium-sized enterprises 52.78%, and for small enterprises 71.52%. By specific sector, the operating rate for electronic circuit copper foil was 80.86%, up 2.78 percentage points MoM and up 6.83 percentage points YoY; the operating rate for lithium battery copper foil was 82.84%, up 4.21 percentage points MoM and up 7.88 percentage points YoY. The overall operating rate for the copper foil industry in October 2025 is expected to climb further to 83.72%.

Copper Foil Enterprise Operating Rate at 82.17% in September 2025

Robust end-use demand across multiple sectors in September drove the copper foil enterprise operating rate up for the fifth consecutive month, again reaching a new high for the year. For lithium battery copper foil, both the downstream power and ESS sectors contributed significantly. According to SMM data, total lithium battery production in September increased by 4.83% MoM. Coinciding with the traditional peak season, downstream demand for new energy vehicles is robust, and with the significant increase in battery capacity per new energy vehicle, domestic demand for power battery cells has also grown noticeably. In the ESS sector, both domestic and overseas demand remains strong, household ESS maintains high activity, and the overall industry operating rate remains high. For electronic circuit copper foil, high-end products such as RTF and HVLP series continue to experience undersupply, while demand for low and mid-end products also showed growth, supported by downstream stockpiling activities ahead of the National Day holiday.

Shipments Growth Drives Industry Finished Product Inventories to Low Levels in September

The finished product inventory/output ratio for the copper foil industry in September decreased by 3.81 percentage points MoM to 9.94%, while the raw material inventory ratio decreased by 1.14 percentage points MoM to 15.76. Benefiting from robust downstream demand, overall copper foil shipments increased by 6.56% MoM in September, with lithium battery copper foil shipments up 7.35% MoM, leading to a significant decline in industry finished product inventories to low levels.

Copper Foil Industry Operating Rate Forecast to Rise to 83.72% in October

2025SMM forecasts the overall operating rate for copper foil enterprises in October 2025 at 83.72%, up 1.55 percentage points MoM and 8.11 percentage points YoY. The operating rate for lithium battery copper foil is projected at 84.80% in October, up 1.96 percentage points MoM and 10.18 percentage points YoY. The operating rate for electronic circuit copper foil is expected to reach 81.60% in October, up 0.75 percentage points MoM and 4.23 percentage points YoY.

SMM expects the operating rate of Chinese copper foil enterprises to continue growing in October. In the power sector, downstream manufacturers are rushing to meet year-end volume targets, and the order growth trend is projected to persist until the end of November. In the ESS sector, domestic downstream players will maintain a high pace of order fulfillment, while new overseas projects continue to be released, with battery cell manufacturers' production schedules generally arranged until the end of the year or into Q1 2026. Additionally, after October, copper prices rose significantly, boosting stockpiling sentiment among downstream players that settle based on the M-1 average copper price. However, with ample market orders since Q3, capacity utilization rates at most top-tier enterprises have already reached relatively high levels, which is expected to lead to a slowdown in the growth of the industry's operating rate.