【SMM Analysis】Weekly Review of Indonesian Nickel Market - Oct 10

Nickel Ore

In early October, Indonesian nickel ore prices showed an upward trend. In terms of benchmark prices, Indonesia’s domestic nickel ore benchmark for the first half of October was USD 15,102 per dry metric ton, up 0.68% from the previous period. For premiums, according to SMM data on Indonesia’s domestic laterite nickel ore premiums, 1.4% grade averaged USD 22, 1.5% grade averaged USD 25.5, and 1.6% grade averaged USD 26, with mainstream premiums rising by USD 1. The delivered price for 1.6% Ni laterite ore in Indonesia was USD 51.7–53.7 per wet metric ton. For hydrometallurgical ore, the delivered price for 1.3% Ni remained stable at USD 24–26 per wet metric ton, unchanged from last week.

• Pyrometallurgical Ore:

From the supply side, most regions in Sulawesi and Halmahera have entered the dry season, which is expected to support higher ore production. On October 3, 2025, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Ministerial Regulation No. 17/2025, announcing that starting from 2026, the approval of RKAB (Work Plan and Budget) will revert from a three-year cycle to annual approval. As a result, all RKAB production quotas for 2026 previously approved under the 2024–2025 cycle have been revoked, and companies are required to resubmit new annual RKAB applications. In addition, the Forestry Task Force continues to conduct compliance inspections on several mining companies, which has had limited impact on production but has slightly disrupted market supply sentiment.

On the demand side, although NPI prices have shown limited upward momentum, production is still expected to continue increasing. Currently, some NPI smelters have ore inventories slightly below production needs and have begun to gradually increase raw material procurement. Overall, Indonesia’s regulatory policy changes are strengthening nickel ore demand, which is expected to support pyrometallurgical ore prices to remain at elevated levels in the future.

• Hydrometallurgical Ore:

Market conditions remain stable, with inter-island shipment volumes slightly declining. Since HPAL smelters currently hold relatively sufficient ore inventories to meet production needs, overall market demand has not shown significant change compared with last month. Looking ahead, ore procurement is likely to increase, driving demand upward. Additionally, with the implementation of the new RKAB regulatory policy approaching, smelters may accelerate procurement in advance during the remainder of this year. Therefore, hydrometallurgical ore prices are expected to show an upward trend as well.

Nickel Pig Iron

“High-Grade NPI Prices Decline Amid Downstream Pressure, Market Oversupply Persists”

The average price of SMM 10–12% high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) fell by RMB1.2 per nickel unit from last week to 953.5 yuan per nickel point (ex-works, including tax). The average price of Indonesian NPI on an FOB basis declined by 0.28 USD per nickel unit from last week to 117.16 USD per nickel unit. After the National Day holiday, high-grade NPI prices decreased week-on-week due to margin pressure from downstream stainless steel mills.

On the supply side, although upstream smelters still showed a willingness to support prices, market quotations showed a slight downward shift. On the demand side, under pressure from sluggish stainless steel sales and rising overall production costs, some major steel mills reduced their purchasing bids for high-grade NPI, dragging market prices lower. Overall, the oversupply situation in the high-grade NPI market remains unchanged. With weak end-user consumption, downstream buyers have reduced their acceptance of current NPI prices. Prices are expected to continue facing downward pressure next week.