【SMM Analysis】Indonesian Nickel Ore Market Update – Limited Impact from China’s Independence Holiday, RKAB Uncertainty Persists

The one-week National Day holiday in China (October 1st–8th) has had minimal impact on the Indonesian nickel ore market, as Indonesia did not observe a holiday period during this time and mining operations continued as normal.

A key regulatory development took place on October 3rd with the release of the new RKAB (Work Plan and Budget) policy. However, nearly one week after the announcement, very small portion of mining company has reportedly succeeded in obtaining approval under the new system, according to SMM’s discussions with Indonesian nickel miners. The submission process now involves two stages of verification: one by the mining company internally, followed by verification from the ESDM. Although the submission window is officially scheduled between October 1st and November 15th. However, it seems that the approval from the government has not yet been processed, potentially from stricter requirements and new system transition.

Looking ahead to October 2025, market sentiment in the nickel ore sector has begun to strengthen. Several smelters have already initiated procurement plans earlier than usual to secure supply in anticipation of potential RKAB-related disruptions in the first quarter of 2026. As RKAB re-submission will be required for all mining companies in 2026, market participants expect the risk of supply tightness to increase next year.

From a production standpoint, weather conditions in Sulawesi and Halmahera remain generally favorable. The current week has been relatively dry, with only light rainfall reported in certain locations, supporting consistent mining and transportation activities. From the demand perspective, NPI production in Indonesia is expected to increase, which will require higher ore consumption as feedstock. In terms of limonite market, the nickel ore supply is relatively ample for the smelter's feedstock, and demand is stable to the end of the year except the procurement of nickel ore from new HPAL Projects in 2026 has started. Therefore, looking ahead to Q4 2025, nickel ore prices are likely to remain relatively elevated, partly supported by market sentiment and speculative news.