【SMM Analysis】The average import price of fruit shell charcoal surged 16% MoM, highlighting the cost pressure of hard carbon, and the industry urgently needs raw material diversification

According to the latest statistics released by China's General Administration of Customs, in August 2025, China's shell-based carbon imports reached 11,092.3 mt, up 8% MoM from the previous month, but still down 1% YoY. More notably, the average import price of shell-based carbon surged to $755.37/mt in August, a significant increase of 16% MoM compared to $653.97/mt in July.

This sharp price hike has directly led to a sharp rise in the production costs of hard carbon materials using shell-based carbon as a precursor, imposing significant cost pressure on the sodium-ion battery anode material industry, which is in a phase of rapid expansion.

The 16% MoM increase is the core focus of this data. This surge is primarily attributed to:

1. Fluctuations in international shipping and logistics costs: Changes in freight rates on major global routes have been transmitted to raw material costs.

2. Tight supply at the source: Major source countries for shell-based carbon (e.g., Southeast Asia) may have increased FOB prices due to factors such as climate, export policies, or rising processing costs.

3. Robust demand growth: As the industrialisation of sodium-ion batteries accelerates, demand for shell-based carbon, the mainstream precursor for hard carbon, remains robust. Under tight supply-demand balance, prices are more likely to rise than fall.

Breaking Through Constraints: Exploring Diverse Raw Material Pathways for Hard Carbon Production

Faced with the challenges of high prices and unstable supply of shell-based carbon, domestic anode material enterprises and battery producers are actively seeking and diversifying technical pathways for hard carbon raw materials to reduce costs and supply chain risks. Currently, mainstream alternative routes mainly include the following categories:

1. Biomass-based routes (excluding shells):

- Coconut shells, walnut shells: Similar to the current mainstream shell-based carbon, these belong to biomass hard carbon with comparable performance, making them the most direct alternatives. However, they also face risks of concentrated resources and potentially following the price trend of shell-based carbon.

- Bamboo: China has abundant bamboo resources, with wide availability and strong renewability. Bamboo-based hard carbon has a unique pore structure, and some studies show excellent C-rate performance, making it a highly promising route with Chinese characteristics. Agricultural Waste: Such as rice husks, straw, bagasse, etc. These raw materials are extremely low-cost and widely available, making them an ideal choice for "turning waste into treasure." The technical challenge lies in their high ash content, which requires complex pretreatment processes for purification, but the cost advantages after large-scale production are significant.

Resin-Based Route: Uses synthetic polymer precursors such as phenolic resin and epoxy resin. The hard carbon materials produced by this route exhibit high purity, uniform structure, and excellent electrochemical performance. However, the core drawbacks are the high cost of raw materials and potential environmental protection issues during synthesis. Currently, it is more suitable for high-end applications with extremely high performance requirements and cannot meet the low-cost demands of sodium-ion batteries.

Fossil Fuel-Based Route: Utilizes heavy hydrocarbons such as asphalt and coal tar as raw materials. These materials are by-products of the petrochemical and coal chemical industries, offering stable sources and low costs. The key technical challenges involve refining processes to control molecular structure and preventing graphitisation (forming soft carbon) during carbonisation. This route is one of the important directions for achieving low-cost, large-scale production of hard carbon.

Sugar-Based Route: Uses carbon sources such as glucose and sucrose. The resulting materials perform well, but the high cost of food-grade sugar sources means future development may rely on non-food-grade industrial syrups or cellulose hydrolysates, with their economic viability yet to be further verified.

Industry Outlook and Summary

The sharp fluctuations in the import price of nutshell carbon have served as a wake-up call for the entire industry—relying on a single raw material pathway carries significant risks. The future competition in hard carbon materials will not only be about technical performance but also about cost control and supply chain resilience.

In the short term, reducing reliance on high-grade nutshell carbon by mixing multiple precursors or developing pretreatment technologies will be a practical strategy for enterprises to address cost pressure. In the medium and long term, cost-effective routes based on asphalt and coal tar, as well as biomass waste routes using rice husks and straw, hold the greatest potential for scalability and affordability, and have become key focuses for R&D and capacity planning among many top-tier enterprises. The significant increase in import average prices this time may accelerate the diversification of technical routes for sodium-ion battery hard carbon anode raw materials, promoting the establishment of a more independent, stable, and lower-cost supply chain system for China's sodium-ion battery industry from the source.