HRC futures prices weakened first and then strengthened today, closing up 0.96% with the most-traded contract settling at 3,352. According to the latest SMM tracking data, 39 mainstream steel mills planned a total HRC commercial production volume of 14.0407 million mt in September. On a daily average basis, September has one fewer day than August, with the planned daily HRC commercial output at 468,000 mt, up 0.5% MoM from August's actual daily production. The daily HRC production schedule in September increased slightly by 0.5% MoM compared to August's actual output, with relatively small fluctuations in daily levels.

31 mainstream cold-rolled sheet mills planned a total commercial production volume of 4.2411 million mt in September, up 1,800 mt (0.04%) from August's actual output. In the short term, HRC prices face low risks of supply-demand imbalance and may fluctuate within the raw material price range. For September as a whole, HRC production schedules are basically stable MoM. Demand side, as September begins, the transition between off-peak and peak seasons is gradually accelerating, leaving room for steel demand improvement. HRC inventory is also expected to reach a destocking inflection point, with limited drag from supply-demand imbalance on prices.

Other factors include the US Fed's expected interest rate cut in September from a macro perspective, though the market may have already priced this in. Cost side, hot metal rebounded rapidly after production restrictio