【SMM Analysis】Tight Supply-Demand Pattern for Nickel Intermediate Products Drives Upward Price Trend

This week, the MHP market saw both supply and demand factors pushing up nickel and cobalt payable alongside prices. Demand side, restocking needs from some nickel sulphate and refined nickel producers continued to materialize, with stable inquiry activity for MHP providing effective price support. Supply side, limited spot cargo availability prompted some traders to raise offers, while rising cobalt sulphate prices further lifted the cobalt coefficient in MHP. Combined, these factors drove significant WoW increases in both nickel and cobalt payable, propelling absolute prices higher.

The high-grade nickel matte market remains tight in spot inventory, but weak downstream procurement enthusiasm and limited smelter acceptance of high payable have dampened overall activity. Nevertheless, higher nickel prices this week pushed absolute high-grade nickel matte prices up moderately.

As a key raw material for nickel intermediate production, sulphur prices have risen steadily. Specifically, Indonesian sulphur prices increased this week, driven by two factors: higher phosphate fertiliser industry operating rates releasing steady demand, and recovering procurement demand in the local Indonesian market. Looking ahead to August, autumn fertiliser preparation season is expected to sustain sulphur demand from fertiliser production, providing strong price support. Indonesian sulphur prices are projected to remain stable or extend their upward trend in August.

LME nickel prices rose early this week due to market concerns over supply chain stability amid large-scale protests in Indonesia, resulting in a slight WoW increase overall. Against this backdrop, MHP prices gained from both supply-demand improvements and higher cobalt payable, while high-grade nickel matte followed nickel price trends. Both nickel intermediate products rose with the broader market, with their tight supply-demand pattern continuing to underpin prices in the near term.