HRC futures prices were in the doldrums today, with a 0.09% decline throughout the day, and the most-traded contract finally settled at 3,299 yuan/mt. Spot HRC prices dropped by 10 yuan/mt, with market transactions at a medium-to-low level. Cold-rolled coil prices in Shanghai and Lecong remained stable, while daily transactions were moderate. On the news front, China's services PMI rose to 53 in August, hitting the highest level since May 2024, outperforming last year's 51.6 and the one-year average. According to SMM's daily inventory data, Shanghai's inventory saw a slight accumulation, while Lecong and Ningbo inventories experienced minor drawdowns. Social inventory accumulation is expected to narrow this week. Fundamentally, short-term HRC supply pressure has increased, approaching last year's levels. Demand side, the September-October peak season is an ideal period for year-end rush to meet deadlines, with improved issuance and allocation speed of some investment funds. Demand is expected to improve, but the recovery still requires continuous monitoring. Looking ahead, after the military parade, steel mills' blast furnaces will gradually resume normal operations, leading to a rebound in hot metal production and stronger cost support. Overall, the most-traded HRC futures contract is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.
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