Zinc/Lead Market Weekly Updates - 2025/8/29

The SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index for this week is $93.75/dmt, with a 1.35% WoW increase.

The SMM Imported Lead Concentrate average spot TC for this week is $-90/dmt, unchanged WoW.

Spot Market & Tender Updates

• A smelter reported discussions with a trader on Longxing material, with the final tender price at just over $80/mt. Deliveries are expected to start from late September for 5–6 months, in batches of 1,000 dmt. Recently, concentrates from Ozernoye were reportedly sold at $110/mt, though the smelter was unsure how much volume from Ozernoye will reach China this year. Peruvian Shouxin concentrates are estimated at around $130/mt on a port self-pickup basis.

• Another smelter indicated recent trades at around $85–95/mt for bulk shipments, with September/October loading.

• A different smelter noted transactions at roughly $100/mt for containerized shipments, October loading, with volumes of 5,000–6,000 dmt.

• Market sources said Antamina offers are still heard at around $80/mt. Activity has been subdued, with few reported deals and most participants remaining on the sidelines.

Global Mine & Smelter Insights

• On August 27, Hudbay Minerals announced it has resumed operations at Snow Lake following the lifting of the mandatory evacuation order by the Manitoba Wildfire Service and the Town of Snow Lake. No structural damage occurred to surface facilities, and post-evacuation inspections of the shaft and underground electrical systems have been completed. Milling at New Britannia restarted on August 26, with the full Lalor workforce returning on August 27. Hudbay had initially suspended mining and exploration on June 4 due to wildfires in northern Manitoba. Operations briefly resumed after the evacuation order was lifted on June 14 but were halted again in early July when the order was reimposed. With the evacuation order lifted again on August 22, operations have restarted. Full production at Snow Lake is expected by early September, and Hudbay continues to maintain its 2025 Manitoba production guidance.

• On August 27, Ivanhoe Mines announced that the debottlenecking program at the Kipushi Zinc Mine in the DRC was completed ahead of schedule and under budget. Initiated in September 2024, the program aimed to boost concentrator throughput by 20%, from 800,000 to 960,000 tonnes per year. Following final commissioning in early August, plant efficiency has improved markedly, with DMS circuit availability rising from ~70% to 96% and recoveries exceeding 90%. Since completion, Kipushi has set multiple new records: a single-day output of 1,052 tonnes of zinc in concentrate in mid-August (annualized 340,000 tonnes), and 5,545 tonnes produced in the first week post-shutdown (annualized ~290,000 tonnes). Sustaining this run rate would make Kipushi the world’s fourth-largest zinc mine. The company has reaffirmed its 2025 production guidance of 180,000–240,000 tonnes. In addition, Kipushi has signed a three-year offtake agreement with Mercuria for around one-third of its unallocated high-grade zinc concentrate, complementing existing agreements with CITIC Metal and Trafigura. As part of the deal, Mercuria will provide a $20 million loan facility to Kipushi.

Weekly SMM Data

• This week, zinc concentrate inventories at major Chinese ports totalled 414,000 tonnes, up by 25,500 tonnes from last week. As of Thursday, SMM surveyed social inventories across seven regions in China, totalling 144,500 tonnes, with a weekly build of 6,000 tonnes and a WoW increase of 11,600 tonnes. With price fluctuating within the week, downstream's will of purchasing is still low, ingots are arriving at social inventories, leading to an increase in social inventory within the week.

• This week, lead concentrate inventories at major Chinese ports totalled 26,200 tonnes, staying unchanged from last week. As of Thursday, social inventories across seven regions in China stood at 67,100 tonnes, with a weekly depletion of 1,200 tonnes and a WoW decrease of 2,800 tonnes. This week, due to temporary traffic restrictions in parts of Central and Northern China ahead of the Tianjin SCO Summit and the upcoming military parade in Beijing, lead ingot transportation cycles have been extended. At the same time, several secondary lead producers have entered maintenance, with reduced supply compounded by ongoing losses. As a result, social inventories of lead ingots continued to decline. Although August–September is traditionally the peak season for lead-acid batteries, actual consumption has shown only limited improvement, leading to only a modest drawdown in inventories.

• In August 2025, China’s refined zinc output standed at 626,200 mt, rose by 23,400 mt, or 3.88% MoM, and by 28.77% YoY. Cumulative output for January–August reached 4.469 million mt, up 7.49% YoY and above expectations. Domestic zinc alloy production in August stood at 105,000 mt, up 3,700 mt from July. Production increased as smelters ramped up operations and new capacity continued to come online, pushing overall output to a record high. SMM expects China’s refined zinc production in September 2025 to reach 609,800 mt, down 16,400 mt or 2.61% MoM, but up 22.14% YoY. Cumulative output for January–September is forecasted at 5.079 million mt, an increase of 9.06% YoY.

• In August 2025, China's secondary lead production reached 248,800 tonnes, an MoM decrease of 9,200 tonnes or 3.57%. Continued negative profit margins have led to a series of curtailments with several smelters entering the maintenance period. We are still working on Chinese primary lead production and will bring up a summary on this section early next week.

Author: Yueang He, Zinc & Lead Analyst of SMM UK

Contact: yueanghe@smm.cn | +44 (0)7522 173725