Molybdenum market upstream-downstream output diverges,ore supply tightness may persist

SMM August 29 News:

According to SMM data, in August 2025, the domestic molybdenum concentrate output decreased by 8% month-on-month and 10.8% year-on-year. The total output of molybdenum concentrate from January to August 2025 decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. While according to SMM data, the domestic ferromolybdenum output in August 2025 increased by 4.08% month-on-month and 12.5% year-on-year. The total output of ferromolybdenum from January to August 2025 increased by 9.9% year-on-year. In August, the output data of the upstream and downstream of the molybdenum market diverged. The supply at the upstream ore end continued to be tight, while the downstream demand showed an increase, and the market supply-demand contradiction was prominent. The data also well explained the strong oscillating market trend of molybdenum in August.

The main sources of domestic molybdenum concentrate in August are Shaanxi, Henan, Heilongjiang and other regions. Among them, the output of a mine in Henan after technical transformation was relatively small, and the molybdenum concentrate in Henan decreased by 1,090 metal tons month-on-month in August. The output in Inner Mongolia also showed a month-on-month decline because a certain mine had not resumed production. The output of molybdenum concentrate in other regions fluctuated slightly. In August, the domestic molybdenum concentrate showed a downward trend both month-on-month and year-on-year. In addition to the reasons such as the shutdown and technical transformation of some mines, the decline in molybdenum grade of mines also had a certain relationship. In recent years, with the exploitation of molybdenum resources, the market circulation of molybdenum concentrate was tight within the month. Coupled with the support of increased downstream demand such as ferromolybdenum, the domestic molybdenum concentrate showed an upward trend within the month. Up to now, the mainstream transaction of domestic 45%-50% molybdenum concentrate is concentrated at 4,530-4,560 yuan/ton-degree, an increase of 5.8% from the beginning of the month.

In August, the downstream demand of the domestic ferromolybdenum market was good, and the steel tender price also gradually moved up. The profit of the ferromolybdenum industry improved, driving the improvement of the industry's operating rate. According to data, the operating rate of the domestic ferromolybdenum industry increased by 2 percentage points month-on-month to about 60% in August. Some enterprises were still restricted by the shortage of molybdenum concentrate and had a low operating rate. By province, the output of ferromolybdenum in Shaanxi Province increased by 800 tons month-on-month in August, the output in Liaoning and other regions was relatively stable, and the output in Henan also showed a small increase.

Entering September, the technical transformation of a mine in Henan may still take some time, while the increase in other regions is limited. The operation of domestic molybdenum concentrate is still difficult to recover, and the output is expected to be flat month-on-month. In September, the output of molybdenum-containing iron and steel such as domestic stainless steel is expected to maintain growth. In late August, domestic steel mills entered the market centrally. The steel tender volume of ferromolybdenum in August has reached 13,000 tons, and most of them need to be delivered in September. There is no expectation of a decline in ferromolybdenum output in September. Therefore, it is expected that the pattern of mismatch between supply and demand of molybdenum concentrate will continue in September. Under the expectation that there will be no large increase in overseas imports, it is expected that the price of the molybdenum market in September may still maintain high-level oscillation driven by the tight supply at the ore end. In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to the resumption of production and shipment of domestic mines.