Metallurgical alumina production in August increased 1.15% MoM, with output expected to remain high in September.

SMM August 29 news:

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in August 2025 (31 days) increased 1.15% MoM and 7.16% YoY. By month-end, the country's existing metallurgical-grade alumina capacity stood at around 110.32 million mt, with operating capacity up 1.15% MoM and the operating rate at 82.6%.

August saw mixed adjustments in alumina operating capacity, with a net increase of approximately 1.04 million mt. On one hand, the average spot alumina price remained moderate, and daily cost-profit models indicated theoretical industry margins above 300 yuan/mt, sustaining strong production incentives. Some enterprises raised operating capacity, while newly commissioned projects further ramped up output. On the other hand, minor production cuts occurred at certain plants due to raw material issues. Northern facilities reduced calcination loads for the September 3 military parade, and southern plants conducted routine maintenance, collectively tempering production growth.

By region:

Spot alumina prices diverged sharply between north and south China in August, with southern prices remaining relatively firm. This was partly attributed to ongoing maintenance at southern alumina facilities, preventing sustained high operating rates. Annualized operating capacity in the south fell by around 270,000 mt MoM, while the north saw an increase of approximately 1.3 million mt.

Outlook for September:

Spot alumina prices remain in the doldrums, though most producers have yet to face significant losses, limiting voluntary output cuts. Only routine maintenance extending into early September and calcination load reductions for the September 3 parade are confirmed. Metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity is expected to rise slightly to an annualized 91.35 million mt.