[SMM HRC Daily Review] Fundamental Contradictions Persist; Be Wary of the Risk of HRC Prices Jumping Initially and Then Pulling Back Next Week

Published: Jul 25, 2025 17:00

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This week, HRC prices surged significantly, with an improved market trading atmosphere and an increase in the number of inquiries. In terms of supply, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled production decreased this week, leading to a slight increase in HRC supply. On the demand side, the off-season continued to exert its influence, with weekly HRC demand decreasing in line with the seasonal cycle. In terms of inventory, SMM statistics showed that the social inventory of HRC in 86 warehouses nationwide reached 3.1369 million mt this week, up 102,300 mt MoM, or 3.37% MoM. Social inventory nationwide began to accumulate. By region, except for slight destocking in north-east China and central China, inventory buildup occurred in east China, south China, and north China. On the cost side, the second round of coke price increases (50-55 yuan/mt) took effect this week, and the average price of iron ore rose by 30 yuan/mt, strengthening the cost support for HRC. On the news front, the National Energy Administration will recently conduct inspections on coal mines with excessive production. Coking coal futures led the gains in the ferrous metals series. Additionally, the construction of the Yajiang Dam is expected to drive the total demand for special steel to 4-6 million mt, strongly boosting the demand for finished steel. Moreover, a 4.2-m

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