[SMM HRC Daily Review] HRC futures prices may continue to fluctuate at highs in the short term

Published: Jul 24, 2025 17:23

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Today, HRC futures first declined and then rose, with the most-traded contract closing at 3456, up 0.34%. In the spot market, domestic quotes increased towards the end of the trading day. In terms of supply, SMM production increased by 11,600 mt MoM this week, and the supply pressure of HRC remained at a moderate level. Demand side, with the current price increase, speculative and calendar spread demand was robust, and the overall trading atmosphere was good. However, it was more about the mutual transfer of cargo ownership. Terminal procurement was mainly on an as-needed basis and was not effectively stimulated. Cost side, the sustained high level of hot metal provided support for ore prices, and the third and fourth rounds of coke price increases were poised to occur, with overall strong cost support. Looking ahead, the characteristics of the off-season for terminals have become prominent. This week, SMM's total HRC inventory has accumulated, increasing by 75,700 mt MoM. However, it is not enough to drag down the market. SMM expects that before the macro narrative is disproven, the most-traded HRC futures contract will continue to fluctuate at highs in the short term, driven by sentiment, but the inventory buildup pattern may limit its upward trend.

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