SMM Morning Comment For SHFE Base Metals (July 24)

SHANGHAI, July 24 (SMM) -

Copper

Futures market: LME copper opened at $9,940/mt overnight, fluctuated downward to $9,914.5/mt in early trading, then fluctuated considerably to a high of $9,946.5/mt before consolidating sideways and finally closing at $9,933.5/mt, up 0.36%, with trading volume at 15,000 lots and open interest at 265,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2509 contract opened at 79,880 yuan/mt overnight, touched a high of 80,020 yuan/mt initially, then gradually moved downward with its price center approaching the session low of 79,660 yuan/mt near the close, finally settling at 79,680 yuan/mt, down 0.16%, with trading volume at 30,000 lots and open interest at 175,000 lots.

Prices: Macro perspective, trade policy disturbances persisted. The White House denied the EU's statement about the "US setting a 15% benchmark tariff," emphasizing that all claims before Trump's official announcement were speculative. Meanwhile, the EU plans to impose 30% tariffs on 100 billion euros of US goods in retaliation. Trump announced a new trade agreement between the US and Japan, significantly improving market risk appetite and boosting LME copper prices. The market began to focus on the potential for a US-China trade deal. Trump further declared plans to impose tiered tariffs of 15%-50% on multiple countries but promised to cancel the clauses if major countries open their markets. Regarding the US Fed, White House economic advisor Kudlow clarified that Trump has no intention of firing Powell, temporarily easing policy confrontation pressure. On the supply side, smelters were shipping, replenishing domestic supply and slightly loosening availability. Demand side, high copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment. Considering macro policy uncertainties and marginally weakening fundamentals, copper prices are expected to encounter resistance today.

Aluminum

Futures Market: On the previous trading day's night session, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2509 contract opened at 20,780 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,815 yuan/mt, a low of 20,725 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,750 yuan/mt, down 0.19% from the previous close. LME aluminum opened at $2,648.5/mt, with a high of $2,659.0/mt, a low of $2,632.5/mt, and closed at $2,639.0/mt, down 0.49%.

Summary: Overall, in terms of macro factors, overseas tariffs have been successively confirmed and are lower than previously, reducing uncertain risks and facilitating the recovery of overseas demand. Domestically, policies related to "combating rat race competition" have driven industrial metal prices higher, with the long-term tone of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth" remaining unchanged. On the fundamental side, amid the release of supply increments and the suppression of the off-season consumption, expectations for inventory buildup remain strong. Additionally, recent market sentiment toward policies such as "anti-'rat race' competition" and "high-quality development" has cooled, with futures initially jumping and then pulling back. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to experience a high-level pullback. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in inventory and capital sentiment.

Lead

Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,013/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session to a low of $2,000.5/mt. It rebounded and gained ground in the European session, reaching a high of $2,036/mt in the closing session, and finally closed at $2,028.5/mt, up 0.69%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2509 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,910 yuan/mt, touching a high of 16,945 yuan/mt in the early session. However, dragged down by the fundamental situation of lead, it fluctuated downward and finally closed at 16,850 yuan/mt, down 0.44%.

With macro tailwinds exhausted, the upward momentum of non-ferrous metals, especially lead prices, has been frustrated, and the lead price trend has quickly returned to fundamentals. After the lead price fell, the inquiry enthusiasm of some downstream enterprises improved. However, lead smelters were not enthusiastic about shipping goods, and due to limited spot order cargoes, quotations remained firm. It is reported that most downstream battery producers currently have raw material inventory exceeding seven days, so their willingness to purchase lead ingots is not urgent, and they are still observing the price trend. Overall, the trading activity in the lead market is average, and lead prices may still fluctuate in the short term.

Zinc

Futures Market: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,858/mt. Initially, LME zinc extended its downward fluctuation along the daily average line, reaching a low of $2,842/mt. Subsequently, bulls increased their positions, driving LME zinc to fluctuate upward, touching a high of $2,875/mt during the night session. It finally closed up at $2,860/mt, gaining $6.5/mt or 0.23%. Trading volume decreased to 10,757 lots, while open interest increased by 3,299 lots to 188,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2509 contract opened at 23,000 yuan/mt. During the session, SHFE zinc fluctuated around the daily average line, with the center slightly moving downward at the end of the session. The fluctuation range did not exceed 100 yuan/mt. It finally closed up at 22,940 yuan/mt, gaining 35 yuan/mt or 0.15%. Trading volume decreased to 57,871 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,889 lots to 136,000 lots.

Zinc Price Forecast: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a five-day winning streak, with various moving averages below providing support and the upper Bollinger Bands forming resistance. Recently, the US has reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and Sino-US trade negotiations have also been scheduled, leading to a cooling of market risk aversion. LME inventory continues to decline, with bullish funds mainly increasing their positions, and zinc prices remaining high. Overnight, SHFE zinc stopped rising and started to fall, with the KDJ indicator narrowing. Overnight, zinc prices briefly broke through 23,000 yuan/mt again, but lacked the strength to break higher. Market sentiment has somewhat eased, and zinc prices in the spot market are running weakly at a premium at high levels. Attention should be paid to the entry of hedging positions amid high zinc prices.

Tin

Futures market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) opened higher during the night session driven by LME and maintained high-range consolidation, closing at 273,200 yuan/mt, up 1.62% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) AMD (AMD.O) CEO Lisa Su stated at an AI event in Washington that chips obtained from TSMC's Arizona facility would be more expensive. Compared to similar components produced at TSMC's Taiwan plants, chips from the US facility would cost "5-20% more." (2) Tariffs—①EU officials claimed the US baseline tariff on EU goods is 15%, while the White House responded that all statements are speculative until Trump announces specifics. ②The EU is preparing to impose 30% tariffs on US goods worth 100 billion euros if no agreement is reached. ③US federal prosecutors are reportedly laying groundwork for criminal charges against companies and individuals attempting to evade US tariffs. ④The US is entering the final phase of anti-dumping investigations on certain steel imports. ⑤US Commerce Secretary: The Japan agreement could serve as a model for a trade deal with the EU. Major economies face difficulties in securing lower tariff rates. ⑥Trump: A simple tariff of 15-50% will be imposed on most countries. He remains willing to drop tariff provisions if major countries agree to open their markets to the US.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightens in major production regions like Yunnan. Some smelters may maintain maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in July (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV sector: After the installation rush, tin bar orders declined in east China, with some producers reducing operating rates. Electronics sector: End-users in south China entered the off-season, compounded by high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment and only essential orders. Other sectors: Demand remains stable in tinplate and chemical applications without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Overall spot market transactions were weak, with most traders reporting single-digit deals. Downstream enterprises exhibited high wait-and-see sentiment amid the traditional solder consumption off-season, resulting in low order volumes.