【SMM Analysis】In-depth Observation of the Sodium-ion Battery Industry in H1 2025: Material System Reconstruction and Market Structure Evolution

In the first half of 2025, all segments of the sodium-ion battery industry chain demonstrated significant growth. However, the industry also faced concurrent challenges of technological route changes, cost pressures, and market challenges, marking a critical turning point amid rapid development.

I. Cathode Materials: Structural Innovation and Price Competition

In the first half of 2025, the sodium-ion battery cathode material market exhibited dual characteristics of technological route differentiation and intensified cost competition. Total cathode material production from January to June increased by 14% YoY. Among them, the polyanion route (primarily NFPP) emerged as the absolute mainstream with a 60% market share, while the layered oxide route's share declined to 33%, and the Prussian blue route maintained a niche position at 7%.

The explosive growth of the polyanion route became the highlight of the first half. In Q2, NFPP production surged by 400% MoM, a breakthrough attributed to the concentrated commissioning of enterprise-level 10,000 mt production lines. The scale effect drove a significant cost reduction. SMM data showed that the average price of NFPP in June dropped nearly 30% from the beginning of the year, approaching the 25,000 yuan/mt threshold.

The layered oxide route faced strategic dilemmas. Squeezed by NFPP, downstream battery cell manufacturers accelerated their technological route switches, leading to a YoY decline of over 20% in layered oxide demand. To compete for market share, enterprises were forced to initiate a price war. SMM data indicated that the average price of layered oxide O3 cathode in June dropped by 16% from January, with some enterprises even taking orders below cost. Notably, the Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences successfully suppressed P2-O2 phase transitions and activated oxygen/manganese synergistic redox through anti-site structural design (Li/Mn self-locking structure), enhancing the layered oxide's cycle life to 159.6 mAh/g (20 cycles), preserving technological potential for this route.

The Prussian blue route explored differentiated breakthroughs. Despite remaining niche, this route stood out in specialized scenarios due to its low cost (below 15,000 yuan/mt) and excellent C-rate performance.

II. Anode Materials: Dependency on Biomass Coconut Shell Charcoal and Cost Breakthrough

Hard carbon anodes continued to exhibit a strong growth trend, with production from January to June surging 47% YoY. Among them, biomass-based hard carbon accounted for 85%, with coconut shell charcoal remaining the primary raw material. However, since Q2, the import price of coconut shell charcoal from Indonesia has continued to rise, increasing by 20% compared to the beginning of the year, creating a sharp contradiction with the cost reduction needs of sodium-ion batteries. Enterprises are accelerating their shift towards low-cost alternative solutions:

Fossil fuel-based hard carbon R&D accelerates: Guoke Carbon Beauty's hard carbon products prepared from coal-based pitch have a specific capacity exceeding 300mAh/g and a compaction density of 1.0g/cm³. The raw material cost is only one-third of that of biomass-based hard carbon, with a production yield exceeding 50%. Top-tier enterprises such as BSG and BTR have initiated the construction of 10,000 mt-scale pitch-based hard carbon production lines.

The industry presents a dual-track development pattern of biomass-based materials maintaining market share and fossil fuel-based materials competing for the future. It is expected that in H2, pitch-based hard carbon will penetrate into the energy storage and start-stop battery sectors, driving down anode material prices.

III. Electrolyte: Lithium Battery Capacity Integration and Cost Reduction

Sodium-ion battery electrolyte production increased by 27% YoY, but the industry structure exhibits significant dependency characteristics, with 90% of the capacity derived from lithium battery enterprises' retrofitted production lines. Customized demand dominates product development, with differences in requirements for sodium salt concentration and additive formulations (such as FEC, VC) among different battery cell manufacturers exceeding 30%, making it difficult for small and medium-sized producers to achieve large-scale production.

The cost side is characterized by solvent-driven fluctuations and additive-constrained profits. The average price of sodium hexafluorophosphate (NaPF₆) has fallen by 14% compared to the beginning of the year, driving down electrolyte costs. Specialty additives (such as sodium bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide) are priced as high as 150,000 yuan/mt, accounting for a significant portion of electrolyte costs and becoming a key factor in cost reduction.

IV. Battery Cell Manufacturing: Shipment Pressure and Scenario Breakthrough

Sodium-ion battery cell shipments increased by 44% YoY from January to June, but fell short of achieving 50% of the annual 5GWh target, mainly constrained by delays in energy storage project tenders and the lack of market demand in the two-wheeler sector. Insufficient price competitiveness remains the core pain point: the current average price of sodium-ion battery cells ranges from 0.5 to 0.6 yuan/Wh, more than double that of lithium iron phosphate battery cells, with a significant gap in energy density.

Meanwhile, enterprises are accelerating their exploration of differentiated paths (compiled from news media reports):

ESS Sector Focuses on Low-Temperature Scenarios: BYD's 20MWh sodium-ion battery magic cube cabinet was put into operation at the Nanning Industrial Park, maintaining a 90% capacity retention rate at -20℃ and exceeding 6,000 cycles in cycle life. East Group's 50kW/100kWh industrial and commercial ESS power station adopts long-life sodium-ion battery cells, with an annual discharge capacity of 60,000 kWh and a cost per kWh that is 0.12 yuan lower than that of lithium batteries. The feasibility of sodium-ion batteries in the power grid frequency regulation field was verified by the hybrid energy storage project of China Energy Investment Corporation Ningxia Power (including 200kW/400kWh sodium-ion batteries).

Breakthroughs in Overseas Markets: Guangdong Highstar's sodium-ion battery star secured a 1GWh overseas order, with products intended for household ESS systems in Europe and the United States. The requirements include a discharge capacity of ≥85% at -40℃ and a cycle life of ≥6,500 cycles, marking the certification of China's sodium-ion batteries in the high-end market.

Technological Innovations Push Performance Boundaries: CATL's "Sodium New" battery achieves an energy density of 175Wh/kg through anode-free technology, supporting 5C ultra-fast charging and cold start at -40℃. Chilwee Group's developed 24V heavy-duty truck start-stop battery cell has a cycle life exceeding 8 years, with costs reduced by 61% compared to lead-acid batteries, and has been mass-produced for Shaanxi Automobile Group's heavy-duty trucks.

V. Industry Outlook: Technological Iteration and Scenario Deepening

In the first half of the year, the sodium-ion battery industry exhibited characteristics of accelerated material system reconstruction, strong downward momentum in costs, and layered breakthroughs in scenario applications. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, three major trends are worth noting:

Material Prices Continue to Decline: It is expected that the average price of NFPP will fall to 20,000 yuan/mt, the price of hard carbon anodes will continue to decline, and the price of NaPF6 will further approach 50,000-60,000 yuan/mt, driving the cost of sodium-ion battery cells into the 0.4 yuan/Wh range.

ESS Becomes a Growth Engine: The 100MW-level sodium-ion battery energy storage projects of central state-owned enterprises such as SPIC and China Huaneng Group will be connected to the grid in a concentrated manner. Coupled with the increase in European household ESS orders, this will drive an increase in sodium-ion battery shipments for ESS in the second half of the year.

The Final Outcome of Technological Routes Approaches: The market share of the polyanion route in the sodium-ion battery ESS sector is expected to continue to break through, with the layered oxide route becoming more high-end, Prussian blue focusing on special scenarios, and the hard carbon anode gradually transitioning from reliance on imports to localisation of raw materials, while accelerating the R&D of fossil fuels. In the first half of 2025 (H1), the sodium-ion battery industry chain witnessed a full-line rise in production. The explosive growth of polyanion cathode materials (especially NFPP) and the increasing volume of hard carbon anodes stood out as highlights. However, challenges such as cost pressure from raw materials (e.g., coconut shell charcoal), market squeeze and price competition faced by layered oxides, as well as the need to improve the overall cost-effectiveness of sodium-ion battery cells, cannot be overlooked. In the second half of the year (H2), cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the industry chain (including a decline in material prices and the development of new raw materials) and battery cell enterprises' pursuit of differentiated technological breakthroughs will be crucial in determining whether sodium-ion batteries can establish a firm foothold in the fiercely competitive new energy market.