Aluminum Fluoride Prices Remain Weak Amid Declining Raw Material Prices and Pressure from Both Costs and Demand [SMM Analysis]

SMM News on July 11:

Aluminum fluoride prices continued to weaken during the period from June 6 to July 7. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt, while SMM cryolite prices were quoted at 7,500-9,500 yuan/mt.

Regarding fluorite, a raw material, the current delivery-to-factory price of 97% fluorite powder for aluminum fluoride enterprises is concentrated in the range of 3,000-3,300 yuan/mt. The fluorite market has remained in a sluggish state during this period, with an overall pattern of loose supply, weak demand, and fluctuating downward prices. On the supply side, the current operating rate of mines in the north is moderate, and combined with the supplement of imported sources, the market supply side is relatively abundant. Terminal consumption has remained weak, with downstream enterprises showing extremely low enthusiasm for procurement. In particular, the continuous decline in hydrofluoric acid prices has become a key factor weighing down on the demand side. Faced with high-priced fluorite, enterprises have adopted extremely conservative procurement strategies, mostly maintaining just-in-time restocking. Some small and medium-sized hydrofluoric acid plants have even suspended fluorite procurement, leading to an increasingly strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The demand side is unable to provide support for prices. Under the supply-demand imbalance, both upstream and downstream enterprises have negative expectations for the market, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment, further exacerbating the market's sluggishness. SMM predicts that in the short term, the fluorite market will continue to exhibit a weak downward trend. SMM data shows that the current average delivery-to-factory price of 97% fluorite powder is 3,242 yuan/mt, down 3.71% from June 6. Meanwhile, as the impact of mine-related factors gradually fades, alumina prices have pulled back from highs, and the price of aluminum hydroxide, another core raw material for aluminum fluoride, has also declined in tandem with alumina prices. The current average ex-factory price, as per SMM statistics, is 2,024 yuan/mt, down 5.02% from June 6. In addition, sulphuric acid prices have remained high, slightly loosening the cost support for aluminum fluoride.

The aluminum fluoride market continues to be in a sluggish pattern characterized by weak supply and demand: On the supply side, affected by profit pressures and high costs, enterprises lack enthusiasm for production, and the capacity utilization rate has been running at a low level for a long time; On the demand side, although the operating rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum is good, procurement sentiment is cautious, with just-in-time demand being the main focus. Both supply and demand sides provide weak support for prices, with the market lacking a clear direction and a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing.

Brief Commentary: During this period, the tender pricing for July by benchmark downstream primary aluminum enterprises was finalized, and aluminum fluoride market prices continued to weaken. The tender price for benchmark enterprises in July decreased by 30 yuan/mt compared to the previous period, with a range of 9,600-9,670 yuan/mt. Currently, the aluminum fluoride market continues to exhibit a pattern of weak supply and demand: After entering July, prices of raw materials and finished products have declined simultaneously, with no improvement in corporate profitability. Most enterprises are experiencing losses, with operating rates remaining low and unlikely to improve in the short term. There is currently no positive support on the demand side, and the market is primarily transitioning with stable prices. Coupled with the expectation of declining raw material prices in July, it is anticipated that aluminum fluoride prices will continue to weaken next month.