Antimony prices showed inverted V-shaped trend in H1. What’s the outlook for H2? [SMM Analysis]

SMM July 11 News:

In the first half of 2025, antimony prices experienced a rollercoaster ride: The average price of SMM No.1 antimony ingot started at 140,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the year and surged to 238,000 yuan/mt by late April due to tight spot supply of antimony in mid-to-late February, representing a 70% increase over a period of just over two months. After entering mid-to-late May, the inhibitory effect of high antimony prices on downstream demand gradually emerged, coupled with adjustments in market expectations for exports, causing antimony prices to fall back to 186,500 yuan/mt by the end of June. Although antimony prices had fallen from their peak within the year, they still recorded a 33.21% increase in the first half, exhibiting an overall "rise first, then fall" pattern.

As time entered the second half, the antimony market has temporarily bid farewell to sharp fluctuations since July, with the price range of SMM No.1 antimony ingot remaining stable at 185,000-188,000 yuan/mt, and its average price staying flat with that at the end of June. It is worth noting that the current finished product inventories of antimony raw material manufacturers and the raw material inventories of downstream antimony enterprises are both at relatively low levels. This low-inventory situation has led to a high concentration of market attention on potential turning points in the supply-demand relationship: On the one hand, the current stable antimony price situation keeps downstream enterprises vigilant about possible future price fluctuations, with their stockpiling intentions ready to be triggered at any time; on the other hand, once downstream enterprises start stockpiling, hot money, based on expectations of rising market enthusiasm, is highly likely to follow suit. Therefore, there are hidden variables behind the current stable trend of antimony prices, and its subsequent movements warrant close market attention.

H1 Review

►The average price of antimony in H1 increased by 79.93% YoY

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Reviewing the antimony price trend in the first half of the year, we can see that: Taking the average price trend of SMM No.1 antimony ingot as an example, its average price on December 31, 2024, was 140,000 yuan/mt, and this average price remained stable until January 7. After the average price of SMM No.1 antimony ingot rose to 141,000 yuan/mt on January 8, it generally remained stable. Entering mid-to-late February, with tight raw material supply, suppliers had a strong mindset to refuse to budge on prices and were unwilling to sell at low prices. Supported by a supply deficit and stable demand, antimony prices embarked on an overall upward trend, which continued until April 22. After its average price reached a peak of 238,000 yuan/mt on April 22, it maintained this average price until May 14. After entering mid-to-late May, the inhibitory effect of high antimony prices on end-use demand gradually emerged. Coupled with poor performance in orders for flame retardant, PV, and other antimony end-use consumption, downstream enterprises were unwilling to accept high-priced goods. Some PV enterprises even actively sought substitutes for antimony to reduce their antimony usage due to cost pressures. The weakening of end-use demand led antimony prices to embark on an overall downward trend from May 15, which continued until mid-June, with its average price falling to 186,500 yuan/mt on June 20. As more antimony plants halted production, the previously doldrum antimony prices stabilized and maintained an average price of 186,500 yuan/mt until June 30. Compared with the average price of 140,000 yuan/mt, the average price of 186,500 yuan/mt still represented an increase of 46,500 yuan/mt, with a H1 increase of 33.21%.

The daily average price of SMM 1# antimony ingot in the first half of this year was 187,867.52 yuan/mt, an increase of 83,457.26 yuan/mt compared with the daily average price of 104,410.26 yuan/mt in the first half of 2024, representing a YoY increase of 79.93%.

►Production

According to SMM's assessment, the overall production of antimony ingot (including antimony ingot, crude antimony conversion, antimony cathode, etc.) in China in June 2025 decreased significantly by approximately 21.5% MoM compared with the previous month. From the perspective of antimony ingot production, antimony production in June dropped sharply again after a slight increase in May. Many market participants considered this a normal phenomenon, as the previous sharp decline in antimony market prices had led to significant flexibility in market production. Additionally, as summer approached, a large number of manufacturers entered maintenance and halted production, limiting production, reducing inventory, and alleviating sales pressure. Currently, overseas ore sources still cannot enter the domestic market in large quantities, and market participants indicated that the overall domestic raw material supply remains tight. From late June to early July, some manufacturers announced production halts and cuts. Market participants expected that the national antimony ingot production in July 2025 would likely still decrease compared with June. Affected by the sharp decline in antimony ingot production in June, antimony ingot production in the first half of this year decreased by nearly 1% YoY.

►Imports

Given that the import data for June has not yet been released, based on the data on China's imports of other antimony ores and concentrates from January to May this year released by the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of other antimony ores and concentrates from January to May this year were 16,091.66 mt, a decrease of 5,422.69 mt compared with the import data of 21,514.35 mt for other antimony ores and concentrates from January to May 2024, representing a YoY decrease of 25.2%.

Market Outlook for H2

Supply Side: Long-term ore shortage difficult to change

After long-term mining, domestic antimony ore resources have gradually decreased in reserves, with a significant decline in grade. New mine projects are limited, making it difficult to achieve a substantial increase in production in the short term. Although environmental protection policies may be fine-tuned to a certain extent based on the actual situation of the industry, the mining costs of mine enterprises remain high. Under the current antimony prices, the profit margins of small and medium-sized mines are limited, with some even on the verge of losses, further restricting the domestic antimony ore supply.

From the perspective of imports, China's import data for other antimony ores and their concentrates saw a significant YoY decline from January to May this year. Although the logistics corridor at the China-Myanmar border was once restored, bringing some incremental imports, the Myanmar mining area itself faces issues such as resource integration and infrastructure construction, making the future stability of supply uncertain. Looking at other countries that may potentially supply antimony ores, such as Russia and Tajikistan, they are also affected by factors such as their own production and operations, as well as international geopolitics, making it difficult for them to provide China with a stable and large volume of antimony ore imports in H2. Overall, the long-term tightness of imported antimony raw materials, coupled with domestic mines' unwillingness to sell at low prices, will lead to a continued situation of tight antimony ore supply in H2.

Policy side: The impact of export restrictions will continue

Since the implementation of export controls on antimony-related items on September 15, 2024, there have been significant changes in the international market's antimony supply landscape. After experiencing the initial impact of supply shortages, overseas markets have had opportunities to gradually establish new supply channels, but these come with higher costs and still relatively poor supply stability. In H2, it is highly probable that China's export control policies will continue, which will further restrict the international market's antimony supply, keeping international antimony prices at a relatively high level.

Outlook

Under the dual influence of long-term ore shortages and export restrictions, antimony prices may face a "stalemate" situation in H2. On the one hand, the long-term shortage of raw materials on the supply side provides a floor for antimony prices, and smelters face significant cost pressure. If antimony prices fall excessively, some smelters may choose to continue production cuts or even suspend operations, thereby reducing the market's antimony supply and supporting antimony prices to prevent further declines. On the other hand, the recovery of downstream demand faces numerous challenges, and the situation where high antimony prices suppress demand may be difficult to change in the short term. Additionally, the application scope of antimony substitutes may further expand, which will also limit the upside potential of antimony prices. In summary, it is expected that antimony prices may remain in a stalemate within a certain range in H2. However, if there are sudden supply disruptions or if the demand side achieves large-scale breakthroughs in emerging fields such as liquid metal batteries, antimony prices may break out of the stalemate and change direction.