[SMM HRC Daily Review] Futures market first declined and then rose; HRC inventory in many regions is being depleted

Published: Jul 9, 2025 18:10

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Today, HRC futures first declined and then rebounded, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,190, showing a daily increase of 0.09%. In the spot market, spot prices were in the doldrums, with some cities experiencing a slight increase of 10 yuan/mt. Market transactions were regionally differentiated, with robust trading in South China, moderate low-price trading in East China, and average trading in North and North-east China. From a fundamental perspective, the impact from HRC maintenance this week was 2,800 mt, a decrease of 16,800 mt WoW. Next week, the impact from HRC maintenance is expected to be 39,900 mt, an increase of 37,100 mt MoM from this week, with production fluctuating at highs. According to the inventory data released by SMM during the day, inventory in Shanghai slightly accumulated, while inventory in Lecong and Ningbo both decreased by varying degrees. After the continuous upward exploration of the most-traded futures contract in the previous week, it has reached a relatively high level, and the resilience of end-use demand has weakened somewhat. Cost side, iron ore provides moderate support, while coke is generally stable with a slight rise, with expectations of a certain increase. Cost support is relatively resilient. Overall, before the Political Bureau meeting at month-end, it is expected that the most-traded HRC futures contract will fluctuate at highs within a certain range, with the contract fluctuating between 3,150-3,250.

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