[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Strengthened Signals of Tariff Implementation, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate at Highs amid Low Inventory Support] On the macro front, Trump has clearly stated that tariffs will be imposed on 14 countries (including the EU) starting from August 1st, targeting key industries such as semiconductors and metals, significantly raising market risk-aversion sentiment. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said, "We will meet with the Chinese side in the coming weeks." Although no substantial positive news has been released, it has provided a buffer period for the escalation of trade frictions. On the fundamental front, the casting ingot output of some aluminum smelters in certain regions has increased. As July approaches, the downstream sectors are experiencing a strong off-season atmosphere. Coupled with the high aluminum prices further suppressing production performance, spot market transactions are far from ideal. Aluminum ingot inventory has continued to build up, with spot premiums/discounts weakening significantly. The real-time cost of electrolytic aluminum has continued to decline MoM. Overall, the domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum billet has continued to build up. Coupled with weak demand during the off-season, sluggish orders, and export barriers, the upside potential for prices is suppressed. It is expected that the short-term aluminum prices will face increased pressure risks at highs, with upside potential remaining but relatively narrow. Subsequent attention should be paid to the casting ingot output and inventory changes.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Tight Supply of Aluminum Scrap, High Costs Remain] Aluminum prices dropped back slightly on Tuesday, with SMM ADC12 prices holding steady at 20,000 yuan/mt. After July, factors such as the high-temperature off-season and high aluminum prices have continued to impact downstream orders, prompting some downstream enterprises to initiate production cuts. Although futures and spot traders have been actively inquiring about prices and trading volume of delivery brands has increased, the end-use consumer market remains sluggish, posing a key resistance to price increases.

[Daily Review of ADC12 Prices: Aluminum Prices Drop Back Slightly, Secondary Aluminum Prices Remain Stable] In the spot market, SMM A00 aluminum prices fell by 40 yuan/mt from Monday to 20,600 yuan/mt, while SMM ADC12 prices held steady at 20,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Analysis]Recently, close attention should be paid to raw material circulation and demand-side fluctuations, while continuously monitoring the spillover effects of improved futures market liquidity on the spot market.

[SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review: Spot Premiums Continue to Fall amid Off-Season Atmosphere] SMM reported on July 8: After the SHFE aluminum front-month contract's price center moved down to around 20,630 yuan/mt in the morning session, it experienced a slight V-shaped reversal to around 20,670 yuan/mt. East China continued to see inventory buildup, with market arrivals increasing, resulting in a buyer's market with complete oversupply. Despite the downward movement of the aluminum price center and an increase in downstream inquiries, market transactions still carried a discount of 20 yuan/mt against SMM. Today, SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at 20,600 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with a discount of 50 yuan/mt against the July contract, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[SMM Analysis: The center of cast aluminum alloy futures shifted upward in the first month of listing, with high costs and weak demand putting pressure on and causing fluctuations in the spot price of ADC12] Overall, the strong cost support and weak demand continue to compete, and it is expected that the price of ADC12 will maintain a weak and rangebound fluctuation pattern in July.