[SMM HRC Daily Review] Futures fluctuate rangebound, with regional differentiation in HRC transactions

Published: Jul 8, 2025 17:30

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Today, HRC futures were in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,191, down 0.06% on a daily basis. In the spot market, spot prices fluctuated by 10 yuan/mt. Market transactions were regionally differentiated, with robust trading in South China and average trading in east, north, and north-east China. On the macro front, US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the so-called "reciprocal tariff" moratorium, postponing the implementation date from July 9 to August 1. Supply side, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled production this week was 2,800 mt, a decrease of 16,800 mt WoW. Next week, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled production is expected to be 39,900 mt, an increase of 37,100 mt MoM from this week, with production remaining at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, based on the inventory data of Zhangjiagang and Shenyang released during the day, both regions experienced varying degrees of inventory reduction, indicating strong demand for spot cargoes in the second half of last week. After the continuous upward trend of the most-traded futures contract last week, it has reached a relatively high level, and the resilience of end-use demand is gradually weakening. In the short term, the market focus should still be on the impact of Trump's new tariff rates and domestic anti-cut-throat competition measures on market sentiment, as well as the impact on export sentiment following the recent announcement of anti-dumping measures.

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