Futures Rebound Drives Higher Delivery Demand, Pushing Up Spot Prices 【SMM Alumina Weekly Review】

SMM July 3 News:
Price Review:
As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at RMB 3,112.73/mt, down RMB 11.94/mt from last Thursday. By region: Shandong was quoted at RMB 3,050-3,110/mt, down RMB 15/mt WoW; Henan was quoted at RMB 3,080-3,120/mt, flat WoW; Shanxi was quoted at RMB 3,050-3,110/mt, down RMB 15/mt WoW; Guangxi was quoted at RMB 3,160-3,200/mt, down RMB 10/mt WoW; Guizhou was quoted at RMB 3,130-3,230/mt, down RMB 10/mt WoW; Bayuquan was quoted at RMB 3,160-3,240/mt, down RMB 50/mt WoW.

Overseas Market:
As of July 3, 2025, the FOB alumina price in Western Australia was $361.6/mt. Freight costs were $21.80/mt. With the USD/RMB selling rate around 7.18, this price equates to approximately RMB 3,112.73/mt at mainstream domestic ports, RMB 78.47/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import arbitrage window remained closed. One spot transaction of overseas alumina was confirmed this week, with details as follows:

1. On July 2, 30,000 mt of overseas alumina was traded at $361.6/mt FOB Western Australia, for August shipment.

Domestic Market:
According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, China's total metallurgical-grade alumina production capacity stood at 110.82 million mt/year, with operating capacity at 88.63 million mt/year. The national alumina operating rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points WoW to 79.97%. By region: Shandong's operating rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points WoW to 86.24%; Shanxi's operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points WoW to 76.60%; Henan's operating rate was flat WoW at 59.17%; Guangxi's operating rate decreased by 0.82 percentage points WoW to 90.91%. Based on current information, individual companies have conducted or plan routine maintenance, which may affect alumina output in the short term but have a relatively minor impact over longer cycles. In the short term, alumina operating capacity is expected to remain high.

Overall:
This week, alumina operating capacity decreased by 340,000 mt/year to 88.63 million mt/year. In the short term, alumina operating capacity is expected to remain high, with only a few plants undergoing routine maintenance. Spot market supply remains relatively ample, exerting downward pressure on spot alumina prices. However, recent futures price increases have brought the alumina spot-futures arbitrage window close to opening. Traders are actively inquiring, leading to a temporary tightening of spot supply and firmer offers from holders. In the short term, spot alumina prices may see a slight rebound. However, the subsequent trend still requires monitoring changes in supply-demand fundamentals, futures prices, and delivery demand.