ADP employment data came in unexpectedly weak, marking the largest decline in over two years. LME copper broke through the 10,000 yuan/ton mark, with SHFE copper following suit with a price increase.

Published: Jul 3, 2025 08:45

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Macro side, the US ADP employment figure recorded a decline of 33,000, falling short of the expected 95,000 and marking the largest drop since March 2023. The sluggish labour market has shown no signs of improvement, prompting traders to increase their bets on the US Fed cutting interest rates at least twice before the end of this year, which is bullish for copper prices. Additionally, the trade agreement reached between the US and Vietnam has reduced the previously planned tariffs on Vietnamese exports, alleviating market concerns over trade tensions.
Fundamentals side, from the supply side, suppliers had a strong willingness to sell during the day, and there were instances of price-driving purchases at low prices. However, the overall supply in Changzhou was tight, creating a regional supply shortage. From the demand side, copper prices were in a high range, which suppressed downstream demand. Copper rod factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were reluctant to purchase due to maintenance, and although transactions in Changzhou were relatively better due to tight supply, overall downstream purchasing sentiment was low.
Price side, with the increasing downward pressure on the US economy and the continuous expansion of US debt, the US dollar index is weakening. It is expected that c

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