According to SMM statistics, as of June 19, the inventory of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas stood at 449,000 mt, down 9,000 mt from Monday this week and 11,000 mt from last Thursday on a WoW basis. On a YoY basis, it was down 307,000 mt compared to the same period last year and 69,000 mt compared to the same period in 2023, remaining at a low level for the same period over the past three years and just shy of the year's low inventory level of 440,000 mt. Low inventory continues to provide strong support for aluminum prices.
SMM believes that in June, there is still an expectation for a slight increase in the proportion of liquid aluminum in China. Supported by the overall still low domestic casting ingot volume in the short term, inventory is expected to maintain a destocking trend. However, due to the expectation of a slight increase in casting ingot production at a small number of aluminum smelters, there have been signs of a slight increase in supply and shipments from north-west China recently. Additionally, due to price spreads and inter-regional transfers, the increase in arrivals this week has exerted significant pressure on east China, potentially alleviating the tight supply situation in the market. Looking ahead, with aluminum prices holding up well at high levels recently, it is expected to have a certain inhibitory effect on domestic demand during the off-season. Outflows from warehouses are expected to weaken, putting downward pressure on th