2025 Q1 Global Zinc Concentrate Supply in a Glance - EMEA

In recent years, zinc prices have fluctuated largely around the supply-demand imbalance between mining and smelting. With a significant increase in zinc concentrate supply expected for this year, prices may face downward pressure as we expected at the beginning of this year. This is the first report of two, which reviews Q1 production data from major overseas zinc mines from the EMEA region, which covers Europe, Middle East and Africa.

According to SMM data, Q1 2025 zinc concentrate production totals 2.79 million tonnes — down 6.2% quarter-on-quarter but up 2.6% year-on-year. Here China production accounts for 0.775 million tonnes, suggesting a 10% quarter-on-quarter decrease due to traditional Chinese off-season, and a slight year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. Meanwhile, ex-China regions contributes the rest 2.015 million tonnes, that's a 4.5% quarter-on-quarter drop but also a 5.7% increase year-on-year.

Output increases were observed at certain mines due to higher ore grades, improved milling volumes, zinc-favoured mine sequencing, new production ramp-ups and suspended mine restarts. At the same time, however, some operations experienced declines due to weather conditions, natural disasters, falling grades, or maintenance activities.

Breakdown EMEA production by regions:

• Russia & Caspian: Production in this region totals up to 237 ktonees, down 10.5% quarter-on-quarter but up 3.8% year-on-year. The major source of the decrease comes from Zhairem zinc/lead mine in Kazakhstan, which produced 21 ktonnes of zinc in concentrates, lower by 9% year-on-year but 56% quarter-on-quarter, but that's actually in line with their normal production level in Q1. According to SMM's recent communications with the market, concentrates from Ozernoye has already been arriving at Chinese ports from both land and sea in Q2, which were produced in 2025 Q1 and then shipped to China. Based on the volume of shipments we can confirm with the market, at least 10 ktonees of zinc in concentrate has already been produced by this giant zinc/lead mine in 2025 Q1, with more coming in the later months, contributing to an upcoming quarter-on-quarter production increase. Ozernoye is belived to start its ramp-up, with the whole year zinc in concentrate production expected around 100 kt.

• Africa: Production in this region totals up to 171 ktonees, up by 9% quarter-on-quarter and 79% year-on-year. Majority of the improvement in production comes from Kipushi operated by Ivanhoe, the quickly-ramping-up mine located in DRC. In this quarter, Kipushi produced 42.7 ktonnes of zinc in concentrates, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32%. The Kipushi concentrator processed approximately 151.4 ktonnes of ore with an average feed zinc grade of 32.5% and an average flotation recovery rate of 87.9%. Recoveries continued to improve during the period, averaging close to 90%, and efforts are underway to reach the design recovery rate of approximately 95% later this year. By the end of Q1, high-grade and medium-grade surface stockpiles near the Kipushi mine totaled approximately 307 ktonnes of ore, with an estimated average zinc grade of 23%, representing approximately 70 ktonnes of contained zinc. Following the completion of the debottlenecking and capacity expansion activities expected to deliver in Q3 2025, Kipushi aims to increase its annual zinc-in-concentrate production to over 250 ktonnes by 2026. Vedanta's South Africa assets Gamsberg is also ramping up according to its phase-II production plans. Together with Vedanta's another local asset Black Mountain Mine(BMM), South Africa produced 50 ktonnes of zinc in concentrate, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 51.5%.

• Middle East: Production of zinc in concentrate from Middle East is around 7 ktonnes, which is steady comparing with previous quarter results. Khnaiguiyah mine project in Saudi Arabia is projected to start its construction in 2025 Q2, with production expected in 2027. The nameplate capacity of its flotation system is around 4 million tonnes a year. In a steady state, the mine is anticipated to bring 105 ktonnes of zinc in concentrate annually.

• Europe: Production in this region totals up to 198 ktonees, up by 3.2% quarter-on-quarter and 11.4% year-on-year. Boliden's Tara mine in Ireland produced 21.6 ktonnes of zinc in concentrate, 239.5% of quarter-on-quarter increase compring with 2024 Q4, when it first restarted its operation after completing the care and maintenance ever since July 2023. The mine is projected to produce around 90 ktonnes in 2025. Swedish mine Garpenberg produced 24.6 ktonnes, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.55% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.52%. The mine is still applying to revise its annual carbon emission limit, with a proposed increase from 3.5 to 4.5 million tonnes per year. The Boliden Area produced 11.7 ktonnes of zinc in concentrates, still in line with the production guidance. Vares zinc-silver mine operated by Adriatic Metals is also ramping-up, but the amount of ore milled in 2025Q1 is around 40 ktonnes lower than budget, mainly due to weather conditions and a delay in start of a TSF operation which is now solved. The mine is projected to start commercial production in Q2, with whole year production now anticipated around 20-25 kt. Zinkgruvan and Neves-Corvo (Somincor) have been purchased and merged into Boliden's portfolio since 16th April, ever since then till the end of the year, the production guidance for these two mines are 80 ktonnes for Somincor and 60 kt for Zinkgruvan.

Author: Yueang He, Zinc & Lead Analyst of SMM UK

Contact: yueanghe@smm.cn | +44 (0)7522 173725