According to SMM statistics, as of May 15, the inventory of aluminum ingots at major domestic consumption hubs stood at 581,000 mt, a decrease of 20,000 mt from this Monday, down 39,000 mt WoW from last Thursday, and 166,000 mt lower YoY, remaining at a low level compared to the same period in the past three years.
However, it is noteworthy that aluminum prices surpassing the 20,000 yuan/mt threshold have somewhat suppressed downstream restocking demand. In the past week, there have been noticeable signs of a decline in domestic outflows from warehouses, which may gradually return to off-season levels. SMM expects that despite the relatively low inflows expected to persist in China during the mid-to-late May period, allowing domestic aluminum ingot inventory to maintain a destocking trend in the short term, with the low point likely hovering around 550,000 mt, under normal circumstances, due to the overall smooth domestic transportation in May, coupled with the anticipated weakening of outflows from warehouses during the off-season, the liquidity at major domestic consumption hubs is expected to gradually ease from late May to early June. Nevertheless, close observation is still needed regarding the positive or negative impacts of macro factors, such as the progress of Sino-US tariff negotiations, on downstream consumption and outflows from warehouses to confirm the critical period when domestic aluminum ingot inventory will transition to inventory buildup.