Copper prices fluctuated amid tariff disruptions, with copper billet producers demonstrating resilience amidst diverging operating rates in April.
According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper billet producers reached 54.97% in April 2025, up 0.58% MoM. By scale, the operating rate of large enterprises was 58.19%, that of medium-sized enterprises was 54.45%, and that of small enterprises was 36.38%.
The copper billet market exhibited a complex operational pattern in April. At the beginning of the month, affected by tariffs, copper prices fell sharply. Downstream buyers, adhering to the market psychology of "rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn," generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude, leading to a reduction in order volumes. However, the low copper prices also prompted some enterprises to release order demand, creating a brief purchasing window. As the macroeconomic situation eased, copper prices returned to fluctuating at highs, and the high raw material costs significantly suppressed the stockpiling enthusiasm of downstream enterprises, with purchase willingness weakening again. From the perspective of inventory data, the days of raw material inventories of SMM sample enterprises increased by 0.22 days MoM to 7.48 days, while the days of finished product inventories decreased by 0.36 days MoM to 8.95 days. Overall, despite a decline in order volumes for copper billet producers in April, the market remained relatively balanced through dynamic adjustments on both the supply and demand sides, roughly equivalent to the operational level in March.
Amidst high copper prices and weak demand, the operating rate of brass billet producers may experience a significant decline in May.
According to SMM, the market expects the operating rate of copper billet producers to decline in May. Some enterprises have reported that current order volumes are approximately 20%-30% lower YoY. Therefore, SMM forecasts that the operating rate of copper billet producers will decrease by 5.05% MoM to 49.92% in May. The specific reasons are as follows:
Firstly, the raw material side is under significant pressure. Copper prices continue to fluctuate at highs, and the price spread between domestic and overseas markets is inverted. Given the high reliance of brass billet production on overseas raw materials, the current supply of spot cargo resources at various local yards is tightening, and enterprises have exhausted their previously stockpiled raw materials. With the cost transmission mechanism obstructed, enterprises find it difficult to pass on the soaring raw material costs to downstream buyers, thereby suppressing both their willingness and ability to accept orders.Secondly, seasonal demand has weakened. Entering Q2, the brass billet market has entered the traditional off-season for sales. Coupled with the suppression of downstream purchase willingness by high copper prices, market demand has remained sluggish, and the outlook for subsequent order growth is not optimistic. In addition, adjustments to international trade tariff policies have significantly impacted the export of end-use products such as valves and home appliances in the downstream brass billet market, causing the operating rate of some export-oriented enterprises to drop to a cyclical low.
Overall, under the dual pressures of high copper prices and weak demand, the short-term industry sentiment is expected to continue its downward trend.
