AICE 2025: Green transformation in aluminum industry

On April 18, the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Expo, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., and sponsored by Shangli County Keyuan Metallurgical Materials Co., Ltd., Press Metal International Ltd., Delta Metal (Holdings) Limited, Jinqiao Light Alloy Technology (Jiangmen) Co., Ltd., and other entities as forum title sponsors, Sunstone Development Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Jialang Industrial Co., Ltd. as forum co-organizers, and supported by various specially invited supporters, conference supporters, conference acknowledgment units, and media partners, successfully concluded at the Suzhou International Expo Center in Jiangsu!

The summit featured multiple sessions, including the Alumina and Aluminum Raw Materials Forum, Aluminum Melting and Casting Technology Forum, Aluminum Die Casting Industry Development Forum, Supply and Demand Exchange - Domestic and International Aluminum Scrap Supply and Demand Forum, Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil Industry Development Forum, Main Forum, Aluminum Industry Chain Sustainable Development Forum, Global Secondary Aluminum Industry Development Forum, and Industrial Aluminum Extrusion Forum. As the annual pinnacle event for the global aluminum industry, this conference, with the strategic pillars of "Global Vision, Industry Insights, Green Future," brought together over a hundred international authoritative experts, academic giants, leading entrepreneurs, and government representatives to build a platform for intellectual exchange. The conference focused on core topics such as aluminum market trend analysis, price trend forecasting, supply-demand pattern dissection, business opportunity matching, and cutting-edge technology exchanges, conducting in-depth discussions from multiple dimensions to set the direction for industry development. Attendees directly addressed industry pain points, explored paths for industrial innovation, and unlocked new paradigms for clean and sustainable development around key themes such as green and low-carbon transformation and intelligent upgrading. Through innovative drive and cross-industry thinking collisions, the conference fostered consensus, integrated resources, and actively responded to global climate change and environmental governance challenges. This event established a high-end dialogue and resource integration platform, empowering industrial upgrading with wisdom and injecting strong momentum into the high-quality development of the global aluminum industry, jointly drawing a new blueprint for the industry's future.

In addition, SMM meticulously prepared roundtable interview sessions across multiple forums, inviting many renowned industry experts and corporate executives to engage in intense intellectual collisions on various hot topics, including the green transformation of the aluminum industry - the development and outlook of the low-carbon aluminum market, internal and external challenges - exploring new paths for aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil enterprises in the fog, roundtable interview: discussing new models for integrated die-casting cooperation from a supply chain perspective, China's aluminum industry from a global perspective, analysis of factors influencing aluminum prices in 2025 and market forecasts for the second half of the year, building a global green aluminum ecosystem (ESG aluminum prices, CBAM), and the market business models and overseas investment opportunities of global secondary aluminum.

Panel discussion: Green transformation in the aluminum industry - Development and outlook of the low-carbon aluminum market

Moderator: Wang Yanchen, General Manager of SMM London Office

Panelist: Sun Yi, Deputy Chief Engineer, Shenyang Aluminum & Magnesium Engineering & Research Institute Co., Ltd.

Panelist: Shi Xiaoliang, Chairman, Xizhaofeng Aluminum and Power Co., Ltd.

Panelist: Meng Jie, Senior Expert, Aluminum Branch, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association

Panelist: Yu Miao, Carbon Footprint Expert, NIO

Speech topic: Research on aluminum price changes in 2025 under green transformation

Guest speaker: Lin Jinyu, Aluminum Industry and International Trade Researcher, SPIC Aluminum International Trading Co., Ltd.

Speech topic: Optimization of domestic prebaked anode supply structure and demand growth forecast

Guest speaker: Wang Wanting, Market Analyst, Sunstone Development Co., Ltd.

Speech topic: Graphitisation cathode technology and market development trends

Guest speaker: Wang Zhaoyang, General Manager, Luoyang Wanji Carbon Co., Ltd.

Uses, processes, and standards for cathodes in aluminum production

Aluminum cathodes: High-graphite cathode carbon blocks and fully graphitised cathode carbon blocks.

Classification of cathode carbon blocks for aluminum production:

Semi-graphite cathode: Uses high-temperature electrically calcined anthracite as aggregate and medium- or high-temperature pitch as adhesive. This product has poor electrical conductivity, poor corrosion resistance, and a short pot life (around 1,000 days). It cannot meet current industrial policies and market demands and has been phased out of the market.

High-graphite cathode: Uses high-temperature electrically calcined anthracite and graphite fines as aggregate and medium- or high-temperature pitch as adhesive. It has average electrical conductivity, slightly better corrosion resistance, and an average pot life (around 1,800 days). It is a good choice for some aluminum companies that are price-conscious, but it is expected to be phased out of the market in the next two years.

Graphitised cathode: Uses calcined petroleum coke as aggregate and medium- or high-temperature pitch as adhesive, with high-temperature (3,000°C) graphitisation heat treatment. It has good electrical conductivity and significant energy-saving effects, with a pot life of over 3,500 days. It is gradually becoming the mainstream in the market.

German KHD cathode vibration molding machine

Main features: 1. Continuous vacuum extraction; 2. Low porosity of products; 3. Uniform texture of products; 4. High bulk density of products.

Ring-type covered roasting furnace

Main features: 1. Good heat preservation effect and uniform heating of products; 2. Stable internal structure; 3. High coking value of products, 2-3% higher than that of open-type furnace products.

Internal heat series-connected graphitisation furnace

Main features: 1. High power-on efficiency; 2. Uniform graphitisation degree; 3. Stable product quality.

U-type internal series-connected graphitisation furnace

Graphitisation process: By combining cathode baked products into a circuit in a conductive manner, the cathode is heated to a high temperature of around 3,000°C using electric energy. Through thermal activation, thermodynamically unstable carbon atoms are orderly transformed from a disordered layer structure to a graphite crystal structure, while impurities such as sulfur, vanadium, iron, and silicon are removed, resulting in high-quality graphite.

Processing unit

Main features: 1. High processing precision; 2. Exquisite product appearance; 3. High automation level and capacity; 4. Good dust collection effect.

It also introduced the standards for cathode carbon blocks used in aluminum production.

The important role of aluminum cathodes in aluminum electrolysis pots

Application of cathode carbon blocks

1. Cathode carbon blocks are an important part of the lining of aluminum electrolysis pots.

2. The performance of cathode carbon blocks has a significant impact on the power consumption and pot life of electrolysis pots.

3. As a container, cathode carbon blocks must resist corrosion from molten aluminum and electrolyte while also ensuring uniform current distribution in the molten aluminum and electrolyte.

Cathode carbon blocks play a crucial role in the pot, often referred to as the "kidneys" of the pot. The quality of the cathode directly impacts the lifespan and economic efficiency of the pot, and is also pivotal for its maintenance.

► Container Function: The cathode, ramming paste, and side carbon blocks together form a container. Molten aluminum and electrolyte are held within this container, where a series of complex processes, such as heating, electrolysis, and aluminum tapping, are carried out.

► Heat Conduction and High-Temperature Resistance: The temperature in an aluminum electrolysis pot can exceed 930°C, necessitating heat-resistant materials to withstand this heat. Simultaneously, good thermal conductivity is required to evenly distribute the heat across various regions of the cathode, preventing significant thermal stress and deformation. Therefore, cathode carbon blocks must possess high thermal shock resistance and thermal conductivity.

► Electrical Conductivity: Electric current enters the pot from the bottom of the cathode after passing through steel bars, distributing relatively uniformly across the pot's floor. After passing through the molten aluminum and electrolyte, it forms a circuit with the anode, meeting the conditions for electrochemical reactions and completing the electrolysis separation process. Cathode voltage drop is an important parameter for assessing the operational status of an aluminum electrolysis pot.

► Corrosion Resistance: The cathode must withstand erosion from sodium salts in the molten salt and prevent the formation of Al₄C₃. Therefore, the carbon atom structure stability of the cathode lining must be highly reliable.

Speech Topic: How to Achieve Sustainable Development and Enhance Corporate Competitiveness Through ASI Certification

Guest Speaker: Zhou Chu, Senior Technical Manager, Green and Low-Carbon Development Center, Zhongbiao Hexin (Beijing) Certification Co., Ltd.

Current Global Status of ASI Certification

• A total of 220 ASI audits were completed in 2024 (an 8% increase from 2023), covering 61 countries;

• ASI issued 73 certificates, including 51 Performance Standard (PS) certificates and 22 Chain of Custody (CoC) certificates;

• 62 recertification certificates were issued, including 40 PS recertifications and 22 CoC recertifications;

• As of January 10, 2025, a total of 181 ASI Performance Standard certificates have been issued globally, with 69 in China. Additionally, 73 Chain of Custody certificates have been issued, with 37 in China.

01 Industry Status

1.1 Current Status of Aluminum Industry Reserves and Production

As of the end of 2023, it is estimated that global bauxite reserves exceed 30 billion mt, with the majority remaining undeveloped.

1.2 Current Status of Global Market Demand in the Aluminum Industry

►Factors Affecting Global Aluminum Market Demand in the Past Decade

2015: Rising demand from China's infrastructure and automotive lightweighting; 2016: Declining demand in China, stricter property market regulations; 2017: China's environmental protection and capacity reduction policies drove aluminum prices up; 2018: US-China trade friction, tariff hikes hindered China's exports, but demand from China's infrastructure and NEVs remained stable; 2019: Global economic slowdown, manufacturing downturn, China's demand peaked; 2020: Demand in the new energy sector rose against the trend; 2021: Global liquidity surge, EV demand exploded; 2022: European energy crisis suppressed demand, China's real estate downturn; 2023: Global PV and NEV boom, China's old community renovation, demand rebounded; 2024: PV installations and NEV penetration rate increased, old power grid upgrades.

In a nutshell: The shift from "building houses and cars" to "making solar panels and EVs," with environmental policies and energy transition becoming the core drivers, China's demand remains the barometer of the global aluminum market.

►Demand Divergence in the Global Aluminum Market

It elaborates on the demand share of the global aluminum market from China, Europe, the US, Southeast Asia, and India.

►Demand Structure Changes, Emerging Sectors Rise, Traditional Sectors Transform

The rise of emerging sectors, with global aluminum usage in PV reaching 11.4% in 2023, becoming the fastest-growing sector, where EVs use 30%-50% more aluminum per vehicle than traditional cars, and global EV penetration rate is expected to rise to 18% in 2024, driving transportation aluminum demand.

Traditional sectors are actively seeking transformation, with China's real estate sector's building renovations supporting aluminum market growth, and China's construction aluminum usage still accounted for 25% in 2023; additionally, the recovery of aluminum can demand in the packaging industry, with global aluminum can usage returning to growth in 2024.

►Future Development Trends and Challenges

Growth drivers: Before 2030, PV, EVs, and power grid upgrades are expected to add over 7 million mt of aluminum demand (source: Rusal forecast report); China's "north aluminum southward shift" and capacity expansion in Indonesia and other countries will reshape the global supply chain.

Risk factors: Energy cost fluctuations (e.g., European natural gas prices), trade frictions (e.g., Rusal sanctions affecting global circulation); the proportion of secondary aluminum increased (global secondary aluminum production reached 14 million mt in 2023), but primary aluminum still dominates.

On March 11, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Natural Resources jointly issued the "High-Quality Development Implementation Plan for the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027)," aiming to promote high-quality development of the aluminum industry, with many measures aligning with ASI certification principles, providing strong support for enterprises to carry out ASI certification. ASI certification focuses on the sustainability of responsible production, procurement, and management of aluminum, emphasizing best practices in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) aspects.

02 Why ASI Certification Matters

2.1 What is ASI Certification?

Aluminium Stewardship Initiative (ASI): A global, multi-stakeholder, non-profit organization that creates and promotes sustainability standards for responsible production, procurement, and management of aluminum.

ASI certification is a third-party independent verification process that ensures the entire aluminum value chain—from mining to final products—complies with best practices in environmental, social, and governance (ESG).

2.2 ASI Certification Standards

►ASI certification provides applicants with two voluntary standards for audit: ASI Performance Standard (PS) and ASI Chain of Custody Standard (CoC)

Performance Standard: Aims to ensure sustainability in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) aspects throughout the production and supply chain of aluminum; covers the entire aluminum production chain from bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum metal production, to semi-finished product manufacturing and aluminum product recycling.

Chain of Custody Standard: Ensures traceability of aluminum materials from production to final products, ensuring that consumers purchase products sourced from responsible production processes that comply with ASI Performance Standards; voluntary certification for ASI members; responsible procurement policies, anti-corruption, human rights due diligence, and conflict-affected and high-risk areas are cross-referenced with the Performance Standard.

Speech Topic: Supply-Demand Imbalance, Analysis of Calcined Coke Market Trends

Guest Speaker: Zuoyou Wang, General Manager of Jining Jitan Import & Export Co., Ltd.

Calcined Coke Supply and Demand Situation

Calcined Coke Supply and Demand Analysis

►Global Calcined Coke Capacity

Global calcined coke new capacity in 2024 is about 1.54 million mt, up 2.7% YoY;

Global calcined coke new capacity in 2025 is expected to be about 3.1 million mt;

China's calcined coke planned new projects—total capacity of 5.275 million mt;

Global calcined coke production in 2024 is expected to increase by about 1.87 million mt, up 5% YoY.

►Global Aluminum Calcined Coke Demand

Global aluminum calcined coke consumption in 2024 is about 30.09 million mt, up 770,000 mt YoY.

►Global Anode Material Calcined Coke Demand

It elaborates on calcined coke consumption in 2023-24 and calcined coke demand forecast for 2025.

►China Graphite Electrode Calcined Coke Demand

China's graphite electrode calcined coke consumption in 2024 is about 270,000 mt, up about 3.8% YoY.

Summary

Global calcined coke supply in 2024 is slightly surplus, with low capacity utilization, and China's supply surplus is about 280,000 mt according to relevant institutions; both China and overseas have new capacity, especially China; the overcapacity situation may worsen in 2025.

With the resumption of aluminum production overseas (South America and Europe) and new capacity coming online (Southeast Asia) as well as increased aluminum production in China, global calcined coke demand will continue to increase in 2025, but the increase will be relatively small.

The growth in anode material production (especially the future growth potential of ESS anode materials), the proportion of artificial graphite anode materials may further increase, and the demand for calcined coke from anode materials is expected to continue to increase in 2025.

In terms of graphite electrodes, with the increase in electric furnace steelmaking, the proportion of high-power graphite electrodes (all using needle coke) will increase, leading to increased needle coke demand, but calcined coke demand may decrease.

China's Calcined Coke Export Situation

Changes in Aluminum Calcined Coke Export Volume in 2023 & 2024

Export volume in 2024 increased by about 130,000 mt compared to 2023,

with the increase coming from: Indonesia, Bahrain, Russia, Australia

Significant decrease: India

Speech Topic: Domestic Petroleum Coke Status and Import Trend Analysis

Guest Speaker: Huimin Liu, Senior Analyst of Aluminum Auxiliary Materials at SMM

Petroleum Coke Index Classification Standards

She elaborates on the National Standard of the People's Republic of China for the Petroleum and Chemical Industry NB-SH-T 0527-2019.

China's Petroleum Coke Market Supply Landscape

Domestic delayed coking unit capacity has increased year by year, with growth slowing significantly after 2023

SMM Analysis:

ØFrom 2020 to 2024, the compound annual growth rate of China's delayed coking unit capacity is about 2.6%, especially in 2022, the growth rate increased to 7.15%, the highest in five years, mainly due to the commissioning of a 6 million mt/year unit at mainstream refineries in 2022.

ØAccording to SMM, as of 2024, China's refinery delayed coking unit capacity is about 151 million mt/year, up 1.28% YoY, continuing the growth trend.The delayed coking capacity of mainstream refineries remained stable, while two enterprises in Shandong province, which are local refineries, added a combined new capacity of 1.9 million mt/year, bringing the total delayed coking capacity to 71 million mt/year, accounting for 47% of the overall capacity. As of now, there are no new eliminated capacities planned for 2025, and the capacity of refinery delayed coking units is transitioning smoothly.

Ø In recent years, the total capacity of delayed coking units in China has maintained an expansion trend. The continuous development of downstream enterprises of petroleum coke and the increasing domestic demand have laid a solid foundation for the expansion of delayed coking capacity in refineries. Moreover, the life cycle of delayed coking units has been extended, and the pace of their retirement has slowed down, maintaining the growth trend of domestic petroleum coke supply.

Capacity Distribution of China's Petroleum Coke Delayed Coking Units

SMM Analysis:

Ø By regional distribution: east China, south China, north-east China, and north-west China rank among the top four. East China and south China are close to coastal ports, facilitating the loading and unloading of crude oil tankers, enabling efficient and low-cost transshipment of overseas crude oil, and providing stable and sufficient raw materials for delayed coking units. North-east China and north-west China are important domestic crude oil-producing regions, allowing for the use of local resources. Crude oil is transported over short distances to refineries, significantly reducing transportation costs and risks, and effectively driving the growth of local delayed coking unit capacity.

Ø By provincial distribution: Shandong province ranks first with a total delayed coking capacity of 55.09 million mt/year, accounting for 36% of the overall capacity. The capacity distribution in Dongying, Zibo, and Binzhou is relatively concentrated.

SMM Analysis:

Ø By group distribution: local refineries have the largest total delayed coking capacity of 71 million mt/year, accounting for 47%. Sinopec ranks second with a total delayed coking capacity of 46.75 million mt/year, accounting for 31%. PetroChina ranks third with a total delayed coking capacity of 24.5 million mt/year, accounting for 16%. CNOOC ranks last with a total delayed coking capacity of 8.8 million mt/year, accounting for 6%.

Ø The delayed coking capacity of local refineries is mainly distributed in Shandong, Liaoning, and Zhejiang provinces. In particular, Shandong province accounts for 65% of the capacity of local refineries. There are a large number of local refinery enterprises, with significant industrial cluster effects. They are close to crude oil import ports and domestic crude oil-producing regions, facilitating the acquisition of raw materials, reducing transportation costs, and having a well-developed industrial supporting system.

China's petroleum coke supply is mainly dominated by high-sulphur petroleum coke, with No. 4 coke accounting for as much as 57%.

SMM Analysis:

China's petroleum coke production in 2024 has increased to over 32 million mt, up 1% YoY. The supply of petroleum coke in China is mainly high-sulphur coke, with 4# accounting for as high as 57%, followed by medium-sulphur coke at a combined 28%, and low-sulphur coke making up only 7% of the total.

The share of high-sulphur petroleum coke produced by local refineries is 73%, with 4# and 5# coke accounting for 68% and 5% respectively. Medium-sulphur coke, 2# and 3#, account for 3% and 20% respectively, while 1# accounts for only 4%. High and medium-sulphur coke still dominate, with low-sulphur coke being relatively scarce.

In 2024, the total imports of petroleum coke turned downward, with high port inventories rapidly declining.

SMM Analysis:

Since 2,019, China's petroleum coke imports have surged, jumping from 8.05 million mt in 2,019 to 16.02 million mt in 2,023, doubling in volume, with an increase of 99% during this period. The substantial imports of petroleum coke provided ample replenishment for port inventories. From the perspective of inventory changes at Shandong's petroleum coke ports, there was a significant increase in port inventories in H1 2,023, with an increase of 108%, closely related to the continuous rise in imports, which pushed up inventory levels.

In 2024, due to consistently high domestic port inventories of petroleum coke, traders' purchasing sentiment remained subdued, leading to a noticeable contraction in annual petroleum coke imports, totaling 13.4 million mt, down 16% YoY. With the decline in imports, destocking continued, and by the end of 2024, Shandong's petroleum coke port inventories had fallen by 41% to around 1.93 million mt.

Entering 2025, Shandong's port inventories of petroleum coke fluctuated slightly around 2 million mt.

In 2024, US remained top petroleum coke supplier to China, with high-sulphur coke dominating the import mix.

SMM Analysis:

In 2024, the Chinese petroleum coke import market exhibited distinct characteristics, with the US playing a key role. In terms of import sources, the US accounted for 3.8614 million mt, representing 28.82% of total imports. Russia ranked second, with 18% of imports, demonstrating its strong presence in the export of petroleum coke. Saudi Arabia accounted for 12%, Canada 7%, and both Colombia and Venezuela 6%, collectively forming important suppliers to China's petroleum coke imports.

In terms of imported varieties, high-sulphur coke dominated throughout the year. Data for 2024 showed that high-sulphur coke accounted for 71%, medium-sulphur coke 19%, and low-sulphur coke 10%. Compared to 2,023, although the share of high-sulphur coke decreased slightly, it still held the dominant position. The share of medium-sulphur coke rose from 14% to 19%, while that of low-sulphur coke fell from 12% to 10%.

With escalating tariffs on US coke, rising costs are expected to lead to a significant decline in US coke imports.

SMM Analysis:

Starting from April 2025, trade tensions between China and the US intensified, with multiple adjustments to tariffs on goods originating from the US. As of April 11, 2025, the additional tariff on US-origin goods increased from the initial 34% to 125%, with the effective tariff rate rising to 128%.

Cargo shipped before 12:01 PM on April 10, 2025, and imported between 12:01 PM on April 10, 2025, and 11:59 PM on May 13, 2025, will not be subject to the additional tariffs.

As the world's largest producer of petroleum coke, the US, with its stable supply capability and reasonable pricing system, has been highly competitive in the Chinese market. Based on current landed prices, the cost of US petroleum coke is expected to increase by at least 1,100 yuan/mt, a rise of over 20%, significantly reducing the cost-effectiveness of importing US petroleum coke. SMM expects US coke imports to decrease by more than 30%.

In 2025, multiple factors intertwine, exacerbating the operational cost challenges for refineries.

Rising raw material costs and increased maintenance activities will reduce domestic petroleum coke supply in 2025.

SMM Analysis:

Against this backdrop, since Q1 2025, the frequency of delayed coking unit maintenance at domestic refineries has notably increased. According to SMM data, by the end of March, 32 sets of delayed coking units were under maintenance, up about 78% YoY, involving a capacity of 35.9 million mt, up 69% YoY.

For the full year, it is expected that an additional 20 sets of delayed coking units will undergo maintenance, involving a capacity of approximately 28.8 million mt. Based on the information available so far, major refineries will dominate the shutdowns, accounting for about 70% of the involved capacity. Local refineries will see the largest scale of maintenance, involving a capacity of 34 million mt. The maintenance primarily affects high-sulphur coke, with 4# petroleum coke accounting for the largest share, 54% of the total capacity.