AICE 2025: Impact of New Alumina Production in Indonesia and Global Alumina Market 2024-2025

On April 18, the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Expo, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., and sponsored by Shangli County Keyuan Metallurgical Materials Co., Ltd., Press Metal International Ltd., Delta Metal (Holdings) Limited, Jinqiao Light Alloy Technology (Jiangmen) Co., Ltd., and other entities as forum title sponsors, Sunstone Development Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Jialang Industrial Co., Ltd. as forum co-organizers, and supported by various specially invited supporters, conference supporters, conference acknowledgment units, and media partners, successfully concluded at the Suzhou International Expo Center in Jiangsu!

The summit featured multiple sessions, including the Alumina and Aluminum Raw Materials Forum, Aluminum Melting and Casting Technology Forum, Aluminum Die Casting Industry Development Forum, Supply and Demand Exchange - Domestic and International Aluminum Scrap Supply and Demand Forum, Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil Industry Development Forum, Main Forum, Aluminum Industry Chain Sustainable Development Forum, Global Secondary Aluminum Industry Development Forum, and Industrial Aluminum Extrusion Forum. As the annual pinnacle event for the global aluminum industry, this conference, with the strategic pillars of "Global Vision, Industry Insights, Green Future," brought together over a hundred international authoritative experts, academic giants, leading entrepreneurs, and government representatives to build a platform for intellectual exchange. The conference focused on core topics such as aluminum market trend analysis, price trend forecasting, supply-demand pattern dissection, business opportunity matching, and cutting-edge technology exchanges, conducting in-depth discussions from multiple dimensions to set the direction for industry development. Attendees directly addressed industry pain points, explored paths for industrial innovation, and unlocked new paradigms for clean and sustainable development around key themes such as green and low-carbon transformation and intelligent upgrading. Through innovative drive and cross-industry thinking collisions, the conference fostered consensus, integrated resources, and actively responded to global climate change and environmental governance challenges. This event established a high-end dialogue and resource integration platform, empowering industrial upgrading with wisdom and injecting strong momentum into the high-quality development of the global aluminum industry, jointly drawing a new blueprint for the industry's future.

In addition, SMM meticulously prepared roundtable interview sessions across multiple forums, inviting many renowned industry experts and corporate executives to engage in intense intellectual collisions on various hot topics, including the green transformation of the aluminum industry - the development and outlook of the low-carbon aluminum market, internal and external challenges - exploring new paths for aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil enterprises in the fog, roundtable interview: discussing new models for integrated die-casting cooperation from a supply chain perspective, China's aluminum industry from a global perspective, analysis of factors influencing aluminum prices in 2025 and market forecasts for the second half of the year, building a global green aluminum ecosystem (ESG aluminum prices, CBAM), and the market business models and overseas investment opportunities of global secondary aluminum.

Opening speech

Speaker: Logan Lu, SMM CEO

Fiona Solomon, CEO of Aluminium Stewardship Initiative (ASI)

Guest Speeches

April 16

Alumina and Aluminum Raw Materials Forum

Speech Topic: Introduction to Metro Mining and the Potential Impact of Indonesia's New Alumina Production on China's Alumina Market

Guest Speaker: Ding Long, General Manager of the Asian Market Department, Metro Mining Limited, Australia

Speech Topic: 2024 Price Review and 2025 Trend Outlook for the Global Alumina Market

Guest Speaker: Guo Mingxin, Senior Analyst of Bauxite, SMM

Overview of Alumina Price Trends from 2024 to 2025

From 2024 to 2025, alumina prices both domestically and internationally experienced a rare decade-long market trend, with prices surging sharply before plummeting rapidly. Due to a decline in overseas Australian alumina production and restrictions on China's alumina production expansion caused by ore supply constraints, alumina supply tightened globally, leading to price increases. Stimulated by high prices, there was a high level of enthusiasm for alumina production expansion, production resumptions, and new production startups, resulting in an increase in operating capacity and a significant surplus in fundamentals, which in turn led to a sharp decline in alumina prices.

►SMM Analysis:

In 2024, China's alumina prices rose from 3,154 yuan/mt to a peak of 5,769 yuan/mt, marking an 83% increase. In the same year, the FOB price of Western Australian alumina surged from $347/mt to a peak of $810/mt, a 133% increase.

By the end of 2024, the alumina spot market fundamentals shifted significantly towards a surplus, leading to a sharp decline in alumina prices. As of April 15, China's alumina price had fallen to 2,870 yuan/mt, a drop of over 50%, while the Western Australian alumina price had pulled back to $330/mt, a 59% decrease from $810/mt.

Overview of Global Alumina Supply and Demand

Although the alumina market saw a surplus of 1.79 million mt for the entire year of 2024, the fundamentals presented different scenarios at various times throughout the year, creating conditions for significant price fluctuations. From Q1 to Q3 2024, global alumina supply remained tight, with aluminum smelters' raw material inventories declining, pushing alumina prices higher. High profits stimulated enthusiasm for alumina production, and by Q4 2024, the alumina market fundamentals rapidly shifted towards a significant surplus, with a strong bearish sentiment prevailing, leading to a sharp decline in alumina prices.

►SMM Analysis:

On the demand side, in 2024, China's operating capacity for aluminum continued to increase, with annual production up 1.61 million mt YoY. Overseas, different regions saw varying changes in operating capacity for aluminum, with an overall increase in operating capacity and annual production up 400,000 mt YoY.Supply side, China's annual alumina production in 2024 increased by 3.88 million mt YoY, while overseas annual alumina production only increased by 9,900 mt YoY.

In 2024, global alumina demand increased by approximately 3.87 million mt, and supply increased by 3.89 million mt. The global alumina surplus margin slightly expanded by 20,000 mt, but different patterns emerged in different periods throughout the year, with supply remaining tight from Q1 to Q3.

Overview of China's Alumina Supply and Demand

Starting from Q2 2024, the supply of imported alumina significantly decreased, leading to a seven-month consecutive period of tight alumina supply in China. The inventory of alumina raw materials at aluminum smelters declined, laying the foundation for a sharp increase in alumina prices.

►SMM Analysis:

Demand side, in 2024, new aluminum smelting capacities were commissioned in regions such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, China. As the dry season approached, power supply in southwest China was better than expected, and power rationing-induced production cuts did not reoccur. As Q4 approached, some aluminum smelters had a demand for winter alumina reserves. The combination of these factors resulted in strong alumina demand.

Supply side, due to the decline in domestic bauxite supply, slower-than-expected production resumptions, and difficulties in temporarily supplementing imported bauxite supply, the capacity utilization rate of alumina in Shanxi and Henan was constrained, and operating rates were significantly lower than those in other provinces during the same period. Under these circumstances, the increase in alumina production was limited, and it was difficult for the alumina market fundamentals to shift towards a surplus.

In terms of imports and exports, in 2024, alumina production in Australia declined, and the overseas alumina market shifted from a supply surplus to a tight balance, with prices rising sharply. China's alumina import window closed. Starting from Q2 2024, China maintained a net alumina export position. In 2024, China's net alumina exports reached approximately 370,000 mt.

China's alumina price increases far exceeded cost increases, expanding profit margins

From August to early December 2024, alumina prices surged by nearly 2,000 yuan, and alumina profits expanded to over 2,500 yuan/mt by the end of 2024.

Driven by high profitability and the lifting of bauxite supply constraints, China's operating alumina capacity significantly increased

Under high profitability, alumina refineries became more accepting of high-priced bauxite. Encouraged by high ore prices, the supply of imported bauxite increased, and the constraints of insufficient bauxite supply gradually weakened and were eventually lifted. Meanwhile, driven by significant profitability, alumina refineries increased their enthusiasm for production increases, production resumptions, capacity expansions, and new project construction. From the end of 2024 to early 2025, China's operating alumina capacity exceeded 90 million mt/year at its peak. High operating capacity persisted until March 2025, with operating alumina capacity increasing by 8.93 million mt/year YoY in March.

The concentration of new project commissionings may further contribute to a continuous surplus in China's alumina market fundamentals

In 2024, high alumina prices also stimulated enthusiasm for the commissioning of new alumina projects. In 2025, China is expected to commission 13.4 million mt of new alumina capacity. With the boost from new capacity, China's alumina production in 2025 is expected to increase by nearly 5%.

Demand growth lags behind supply growth, leading to a continuous surplus of alumina

In 2025, China's operating aluminum capacity is expected to rise further, but due to the ceiling on compliant capacity, the YoY growth in monthly operating capacity is expected to fluctuate around 2%, which is lower than the growth in alumina supply. China's alumina market is expected to remain in a surplus situation throughout 2025. However, alumina prices have fallen from a high of 5,769 yuan/mt to 2,870 yuan/mt, a cumulative decline of 2,899 yuan/mt, or over 50%, pushing alumina capacity into large-scale losses. Under the pressure of losses, the alumina surplus is expected to narrow.

Under the pressure of losses, China's operating alumina capacity is expected to fluctuate around demand

In H1 2025, the alumina market fundamentals showed a severe surplus, with operating alumina capacity facing widespread losses. As of April 14, except for a small profit margin in alumina production using domestic bauxite from Guizhou and Guangxi, alumina production entered a state of comprehensive losses. Under the pressure of losses, there are strong expectations for production cuts in operating alumina capacity (especially high-cost alumina capacity). In this context, operating alumina capacity is expected to fluctuate around the production demand for aluminum. According to SMM estimates, in 2026, China's aluminum production is expected to reach 44.68 million mt, with alumina demand expected to be around 86 million mt. Considering some alumina export demand, China's alumina surplus in 2026 is expected to be within 1 million mt.

Cost side: Under optimistic expectations for growth in imported bauxite supply, ore prices are expected to fall to around $70/mt

In 2025, the core of bauxite supply growth remains in Guinea. In Q1 2025, Guinea's bauxite shipments reached a high for the same period in the past three years, with a 37% increase compared to Q1 2024. Considering the impact of the rainy season, and extrapolating from Q1 2025 shipments to the full year, Guinea's bauxite shipments in 2025 are expected to reach 186 million wmt, an increase of about 40 million wmt compared to 2024, shifting China's bauxite market fundamentals towards a relatively loose supply situation. In 2025, bauxite is expected to have a surplus of about 12.38 million mt for the full year, with bauxite prices expected to fall to around $70-75/mt. In 2026, the production release from commissioned projects and new investments are expected to further increase China's imported bauxite supply, shifting China's bauxite market towards a surplus, with prices expected to oscillate around $70/mt.

Cost side: Under pessimistic expectations for growth in imported bauxite supply, bauxite may show a tight balance in 2025

Guinea's bauxite supply accounts for nearly half of China's total bauxite supply, but it is subject to a large number of uncertainties, such as the rainy season, strikes, and government policies. Under pessimistic expectations, the increase in Guinea's bauxite shipments is expected to be around 25 million wmt, with a full-year bauxite surplus of about 5.4 million mt. Considering the stocking demand for new projects, China's bauxite market may show a tight balance for the full year in 2025, gradually shifting towards a surplus in 2026. In this context, bauxite prices are expected to remain relatively firm. In 2025, Guinea's ore prices are expected to fall to a minimum of around $75-80/mt, further declining to around $70/mt by 2026.