Overview of China Metal Production in April 2025 and May Forecast

SMM's monthly production data for base metals is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals for industry chain professionals and investors, and providing a clearer grasp of the future direction of the non-ferrous metal market.

Overview of China Metal Production in April 2025 and May Forecast

Copper Cathode

In April, SMM's copper cathode production in China increased by 3,600 mt MoM, a rise of 0.32%, and up 14.27% YoY. The cumulative production from January to April increased by 415,100 mt YoY, a growth of 10.63%.

Copper cathode production in April exceeded expectations by 9,400 mt, primarily due to the following reasons: 1) Despite maintenance plans at four smelters in April, a new smelter in east China commenced production, coupled with a continuous increase in the capacity utilization rate of a smelter in southwest China. 2) Although copper scrap procurement was challenging in April, many smelters indicated that they had purchased sufficient copper scrap in March. Additionally, the volume of imported copper anodes rebounded in April, leading to an increase in production at smelters that do not use copper concentrates (using copper scrap or copper anodes instead), as reflected by the rise in their operating rates (71.9% in April, up 3.7 percentage points MoM). 3) Despite a recent pullback in sulphuric acid prices from their previous highs, they remained at a relatively elevated level, still capable of offsetting smelters' losses. 4) Although the imported copper concentrate index (monthly) fell to -$37.68/dmt in April, down $16.65/dmt MoM, resulting in increased losses for smelters, the inventory of copper concentrates at major domestic ports continued to rebound (from 575,200 mt in mid-March to 835,600 mt at the end of April), increasing the supply available to smelters.

In summary, the sample operating rate of the copper cathode industry in April was 87.79%, up 0.11 percentage points MoM. Among them, the operating rate of large smelters was 91.15%, down 0.28 percentage points MoM; that of medium-sized smelters was 82.76%, up 1.39 percentage points MoM; and that of small smelters was 71.39%, down 0.24 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates was 91.5%, down 0.2 percentage points MoM; while that of smelters not using copper concentrates (using copper scrap or copper anodes instead) was 71.9%, up 3.7 percentage points MoM, reflecting an increase in operating rates due to increased raw material supply.

Entering May, according to our statistics, five smelters currently have maintenance plans, with an estimated affected volume of around 21,000 mt. However, smelters that underwent maintenance in April have resumed normal production, with the volume of resumed production even exceeding the impact of maintenance. Additionally, due to the still abundant inventory of copper concentrates at ports, no significant production cuts have been observed among smelters due to ore shortages. Therefore, total production in May is still expected to increase slightly.

Based on the production schedules of various smelters, SMM forecasts that domestic copper cathode production in May will increase by 4,200 mt MoM, a rise of 0.37%, and up 121,300 mt YoY, a growth of 12.03%. The cumulative production from January to May will increase by 536,400 mt YoY, a growth of 10.92%. The sample operating rate of the copper cathode industry in May is expected to be 88.16%, up 0.36 percentage points MoM. Among them, the operating rate of large smelters is expected to be 91.56%, up 0.41 percentage points MoM; that of medium-sized smelters is expected to be 84.83%, up 2.08 percentage points MoM; and that of small smelters is expected to be 64.60%, down 6.79 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates is expected to be 92.1%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM; while that of smelters not using copper concentrates (using copper scrap or copper anodes instead) is expected to be 71%, down 0.9 percentage points MoM. Finally, we anticipate that production will continue to increase in June, as only a few smelters have maintenance plans in June.

Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in April 2025 (30 days) increased by 2.6% YoY but decreased by 2.9% MoM. The proportion of liquid aluminum in the domestic aluminum industry fluctuated slightly in April, with the monthly industry proportion of liquid aluminum slipping by 0.52 percentage points MoM to 74.0%. This was mainly due to, on one hand, the relocation of new replacement projects, with no output from the new site yet and some ingot casting from the sedimentation liquid at the old plant; on the other hand, some aluminum plants in northwest China and Chongqing reported downstream production cuts, leading to a slight increase in ingot casting at the end of the month. Based on SMM's data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, the domestic aluminum ingot casting volume in April decreased by 0.9% YoY to approximately 944,400 mt.

Capacity Changes: As of the end of April, SMM estimated that the domestic existing capacity of aluminum was around 45.69 million mt (SMM made revisions last month by taking into account capacity replacement and the dismantling of old plants and eliminating some capacity that was calculated twice). The domestic operating capacity of aluminum was around 43.91 million mt, with the industry operating rate rising by 0.3 percentage points MoM and 1.8 percentage points YoY to 96.1%. In terms of new operating capacity, the aluminum plants in Sichuan and Chongqing have basically completed production resumptions, with an increase in operating capacity; a replacement and upgrade project at an aluminum plant in Qinghai has reached full production. In terms of production cuts, individual aluminum plants in Shanxi and Chongqing have successively undergone minor maintenance, resulting in a slight decrease of 20,000 mt/year in operating capacity. Additionally, SMM learned that an aluminum plant commenced the first batch of a 200,000 mt/year aluminum replacement project, relocating from Shandong to Yunnan, within the month.

Production Forecast: Entering May 2025, the domestic operating capacity of aluminum is expected to maintain high-level operation. The second batch of capacity replacement projects from an aluminum plant in Shandong to Yunnan is expected to commence in Q3, with the first batch of projects expected to achieve output in May. Additionally, some enterprises have recently undergone capacity maintenance, with SMM learning that small-batch rotational maintenance is being adopted, causing minimal disruption to the supply side. Subsequent attention should still be paid to the downstream operating situation of aluminum in various regions amidst weakening demand.

Alumina

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in April 2025 (30 days) decreased by 6.17% MoM but increased by 6.31% YoY. As of the end of April, China's existing capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina was around 109.22 million mt, with the actual operating capacity decreasing by 3.22% MoM and the operating rate at 78.76%.

The operating capacity of domestic alumina plants varied in April. On one hand, the commissioning and ramp-up of some new capacities led to an increase in operating capacity; on the other hand, under the pressure of losses, maintenance and production cuts at alumina enterprises occurred in a concentrated manner, causing a decline in operating capacity. Overall, the national operating capacity of metallurgical alumina in April decreased by 2.87 million mt MoM.

By Province:

In April, the operating rate of alumina in Shanxi decreased by 6.5 percentage points MoM; that in Henan decreased by 3.77 percentage points MoM; and that in Shandong decreased by 0.7 percentage points MoM. This was mainly due to production cuts initiated by some enterprises in March, with the impact further reflected in April. Additionally, some new alumina enterprises underwent production cuts or maintenance in April, leading to a decline in operating rates.

In April, the operating rate of alumina in Guangxi decreased by 3.61 percentage points MoM. Although new capacities were commissioned and ramped up in Guangxi in April, there were also production cuts or maintenance at alumina enterprises, coupled with an increase in existing capacity diluting the operating rate. As a result, the operating rate of alumina in Guangxi decreased MoM in April, while the operating capacity increased by 310,000 mt MoM.

May Forecast: As of now, some alumina plants have reported maintenance plans for May, which are expected to lead to a phased decline in alumina production in some regions. Additionally, new capacities are expected to be commissioned and maintenance capacities resumed in May, which could bring about an increase in operating capacity. Overall, the domestic operating capacity of metallurgical alumina in May may rebound slightly, with the domestic operating capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina expected to be 86.96 million mt/year.

Overseas Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, the total overseas aluminum production in April 2025 increased by 2.7% YoY, with the monthly average operating rate reaching 88.2%, down 1.1% MoM and up slightly by 0.3% YoY.

The growth in overseas aluminum production in April mainly stemmed from increased production resumptions. According to Rusal's 2024 annual report, the Taishet plant had resumed full production by the end of 2024, with an annual production capacity reaching 428,000 mt. However, due to overseas sanctions pressure and high costs, Rusal initiated production cut plans from the end of 2024 and has now reduced production by 10% at seven aluminum smelters in Siberia (with a total capacity of 3.933 million mt). The timing of subsequent production resumptions will depend on market conditions. Despite the production cuts, Rusal still achieved a 3.7% increase in aluminum production in 2024, with an annual output of 3.992 million mt.

It is expected that the expanded production capacity of Vedanta Balco's plant in India will be put into operation this quarter. It is reported that the plant plans to gradually commission the new capacity from Q2 2025.The total capacity after expansion will be 1.015 million mt. If the project is commissioned smoothly, production ramp-up is expected to be completed in Q1 2026.

Looking ahead to May, the total overseas aluminum production is projected to increase by 2.8% YoY, with a capacity utilisation rate of approximately 88.4%, up 0.2% MoM.

Overseas Metallurgical-Grade Alumina

According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in April 2025 increased by 3.8% YoY. The average operating rate of overseas alumina refineries reached 82.2%, up 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY.

The increase in alumina production mainly came from the production ramp-up of PT Borneo Alumindo Prima and PT Borneo Alumina Indonesia in Indonesia. PT Borneo Alumindo Prima, whose major shareholder is Jinjiang Group, commenced production in January 2025 with a capacity of 1 million mt and is expected to reach full capacity in Q2. PT Borneo Alumina Indonesia, whose major shareholders are Inalum and PT Antam, also has a capacity of 1 million mt and is currently approaching full capacity.

Additionally, Vedanta's FY25 4Q report indicated that due to bauxite supply disruptions, its Lanjigarh alumina refinery produced 431,000 mt in the January-March 2025 quarter, a decrease of 11% YoY. However, the issue was resolved by the end of the quarter, and production is expected to return to normal in Q2.

Looking ahead to May, SMM expects overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production to increase by 3.9% YoY. The operating rate is projected to reach 82.4%, up 0.2% MoM and 3.0% YoY.

Primary Lead

In April 2025, the national primary lead production turned downward, declining by 3.95 percentage points MoM but increasing by 9.75 percentage points YoY. The cumulative primary lead production from January to April 2025 increased by 6.55 percentage points YoY.

It is understood that in April, large enterprises in Henan province conducted equipment maintenance as planned, which was one of the main factors contributing to the decline in primary lead production this month. Meanwhile, lead prices fell sharply in April compared to March, with the most-traded SHFE lead contract dropping from a high of 17,805 yuan/mt in late March to a low of 16,165 yuan/mt in early April. The decline in lead prices exceeded 1,500 yuan/mt, dampening the production enthusiasm of lead smelters. Lead smelters in Yunnan, Jiangxi, and other regions voluntarily reduced production or added new maintenance plans. Although some smelters in Yunnan and Hunan provinces resumed production after maintenance, their relatively small capacity scales or limited production increases did not change the downward trend in primary lead production this month.

In May, the relatively concentrated resumption of production by primary lead smelters after maintenance will offset the production decline in the previous month. The resumption of production by large enterprises, represented by those in Henan, combined with the continued production ramp-up by smelters in Yunnan, Hunan, and other regions that resumed production in April, will contribute to this. Additionally, lead smelters in the southwest and east China regions plan to conduct routine maintenance, but the impact on May's production will be limited. Overall, primary lead production in May is expected to increase by over 10,000 mt MoM.

Furthermore, since April, the issue of the US imposing additional tariffs has intensified. According to customs data, approximately 10% of China's lead concentrate imports in 2024 originated from the US. After the tariff hikes this year, the supply of lead concentrates from the US has significantly decreased, exacerbating the tight supply of domestic raw materials. While lead smelters are increasing their production schedules, we need to be vigilant about the impact of raw material supply issues on lead ingot production. If raw material supply becomes even tighter, there is a possibility that the increase in primary lead production may fall short of expectations.

Secondary Lead

In April 2025, the production of secondary crude lead in China declined, decreasing by 4.56% MoM and increasing by 11.04% YoY. The production of secondary refined lead also decreased by 4.26% MoM but increased by 7.46% YoY.

In March, lead prices remained at a relatively high level, resulting in good profit performance for secondary lead smelters and high production enthusiasm. Coupled with the commissioning of new large-scale capacities, production resumptions and ramp-ups at large and medium-sized smelters, the production of secondary lead in March reached a new high in nearly one and a half years. April is the traditional consumption off-season for lead-acid batteries, with downstream battery producers showing weak willingness to purchase lead ingots. Additionally, the low volume of scrap batteries in the market, combined with the high operating rates of secondary lead smelters, exacerbated the sentiment among recyclers to hold back cargoes. Tight raw material supply, high costs, and low selling prices of finished products led to significant operational pressure for secondary lead smelters, with widespread production cuts and suspensions occurring at month-end. As a result, production in April declined significantly compared to March.

In May, due to the Labour Day holiday, downstream battery producers generally have plans to suspend production, resulting in weak demand for lead ingot purchases. Most secondary lead smelters that have cut or suspended production have indicated that they need to observe market conditions in May before deciding whether to resume normal production. SMM expects that the production of secondary lead in May may remain stable or decline slightly.

Refined Zinc

In April 2025, SMM's survey showed that China's refined zinc production increased by 1.6% MoM and approximately 10% YoY. The cumulative production from January to April increased by about 0.3% YoY, falling below expectations. Among them, the domestic zinc alloy production in April increased by nearly 4,000 mt MoM. Entering April, domestic smelters continued to increase production, but the growth rate was lower than expected. This was mainly due to unexpected maintenance in Guangxi, Hunan, and other regions as zinc prices fell, as well as slower production ramp-ups in Hunan, Sichuan, and other areas, resulting in insignificant overall production increases. Overall, the production increases were mainly concentrated in Gansu, Qinghai, Yunnan, Sichuan, Hunan, and Shanxi, while the decreases were mainly in Hunan and Guangxi.

SMM expects that in May 2025, domestic refined zinc production will increase by less than 0.1% MoM and more than 3% YoY. The cumulative production from January to May is expected to increase by nearly 1% YoY. Overall, the production changes at smelters in May will be relatively small, with production decreases mainly concentrated in Henan, Yunnan, Anhui, Guangxi, Qinghai, and Xinjiang, and production increases mainly in Sichuan, Yunnan, Hunan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia. Overall, production fluctuations will be minor.

Refined Tin

According to SMM's market-based processing data, in April 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 0.52% MoM and 8.13% YoY. The continuous tightening of the tin concentrate and scrap tin supply chains imposed rigid constraints on production capacity, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating rate.

Yunnan Production Area: The pressure on the raw material side was prominent, with ore imports from Myanmar remaining below the 10,000 mt physical tonne warning line for several consecutive months. The tin concentrate treatment charge (TC) remained at historically low levels, putting pressure on smelter profits and limiting production enthusiasm.

Resumption of Production: In April, the capacity utilization rate slightly rebounded. However, influenced by the suspension of the Bisie tin mine in the DRC (accounting for 6% of global supply) and the extended preparation period for Myanmar's production resumption, the raw material shortage intensified, and the operating rate remained below the Q4 2024 level.

Jiangxi Production Area: Relying on the scrap tin recycling, the recycling volume of scrap tin decreased after the Lunar New Year. Coupled with the decline in processing fees, the production costs of smelters in Jiangxi continued to rise, leading some smelters to gradually reduce production, making it difficult to restore previous production levels.

Inner Mongolia Production Area: Affected by production disruptions at its own mines, production in April was hindered, resulting in a slight decline in output.

Anhui and Emerging Production Areas: Affected by the shortage of scrap materials and tin concentrates, overall production fell short of expectations, and the operating rate slightly declined.

Based on SMM's estimates, the refined tin production in May is expected to increase by approximately 2% MoM. Driving factors: The resumption of production at some smelters that had suspended operations for maintenance.

Refined Nickel

In April 2025, SMM's refined nickel production increased by 6% MoM and 47% YoY compared to March, with a cumulative YoY increase of 30%. The operating rate of domestic refined nickel enterprises reached 67%. In April, the operating rates of top-tier enterprises remained high, and production remained stable. On the demand side, electroplating alloy demand remained stable, with downstream buying the dip supporting rigid demand. However, the relatively low proportion of electroplating alloy demand made it difficult to reverse the overall weakness. In terms of prices, nickel prices showed a "decline first, then rebound" pattern in April. The US tariff hike policy against China at the beginning of the month triggered market panic. Later, the Indonesian government's implementation of a new nickel ore policy (PNBP) on April 26, which raised royalty rates, pushed up expectations for nickel ore mining costs, and the repair of market sentiment drove nickel prices to rebound. However, given the supply-demand surplus and the current global apparent inventory of 250,000 mt, the rebound space for nickel prices is limited.

It is expected that refined nickel production in May will decrease by 3% MoM and increase by 33% YoY. Affected by the production cuts of high-grade nickel matte and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) in Indonesia by top-tier enterprises, the current market supply of refined nickel raw materials is tight, which will have a certain impact on the production of manufacturers, and refined nickel production will decrease in May.

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI)

In April 2025, the physical content of China's NPI production decreased by approximately 1.59% MoM, while the metal content increased by approximately 0.24% MoM. In April, the total NPI production in China showed a pattern of decreasing physical content but increasing metal content. The main reason was that in April, nickel ore prices in the Philippines remained relatively firm, while finished product prices continued to fall, causing smelters to re-enter a situation of cost losses. Some traditional smelters continued maintenance or maintained low operating rates. On the other hand, due to the increase in port arrivals of nickel ore from the Philippines, the nickel ore inventories of some smelters were replenished, and production increased significantly compared to March, driving up the metal content. From the perspective of integrated smelters, the firm nickel ore prices also imposed a burden on the costs of low-grade and high-grade NPI. The economics of external purchases were better than in-house production, and the NPI production of integrated stainless steel mills declined, leading to an overall MoM decrease in the physical content of China's NPI production in April.

It is expected that in May 2025, the physical content of China's NPI production will increase by approximately 2.45% MoM, and the metal content will increase by approximately 3.15% MoM. According to SMM's survey, traditional smelters undergoing maintenance may end their maintenance, boosting both the overall physical content and metal content. Against the backdrop of continued cost losses, smelters maintaining low operating rates may continue their production loads. Additionally, from the perspective of integrated smelters, with the growth in 200-series stainless steel production, the supply of pig iron from low-grade NPI may increase compared to April, boosting the total physical content of China's NPI.

Indonesian NPI

In April 2025, the metal content of Indonesian NPI increased by approximately 1.22% MoM and 17.23% YoY. In April, affected by Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy, market uncertainties regarding Indonesia's nickel supply increased, and overall market trading sentiment was low. In terms of specific supply increases, the production of some new capacities gradually ramped up, showing a slight increase this month. On the demand side, stainless steel production decreased in April, mainly due to some enterprises entering maintenance periods and the continuous decline in stainless steel prices, resulting in weak trading sentiment among stainless steel enterprises.

It is expected that in May 2025, the metal content of Indonesian NPI will decrease by 0.5% MoM and increase by 16.9% YoY. Affected by the implementation of Indonesia's new tax policy at the end of April, the cost of Indonesia's nickel ore sector is expected to rise, and nickel ore supply remains tight. The metal content of NPI at smelters is expected to decline slightly. According to SMM's survey, the production of Indonesia's main NPI production areas remained basically stable compared to March. However, under the conditions of tight nickel ore supply and rising ore prices, the ramp-up of some production lines was relatively limited. From the perspective of downstream demand, the maintenance of production lines at some stainless steel mills will continue to reduce the demand for NPI. Overall, due to the pressure on costs and volumes in the nickel ore sector and the weakening of downstream demand, overall production is expected to decline slightly.

Nickel Sulphate

According to SMM's data, in April 2025, the production of nickel sulphate is expected to reach approximately 25,900 mt in metal content, corresponding to a physical tonne production of approximately 117,800 mt, a decrease of approximately 0.08% MoM and 24.79% YoY. On the demand side, downstream demand in April did not increase significantly, remaining basically flat compared to March. The demand for nickel sulphate in China's large NEV market remained stable, while the demand in the consumer market showed a slight increase. Due to the impact of tariff policies, the demand for nickel sulphate from precursor plants with export businesses weakened. On the supply side, nickel sulphate plants produced based on sales in April. Since overall downstream demand did not increase significantly, the total supply of nickel sulphate also remained stable.Additionally, due to high raw material prices and limited raw material inventory, some nickel salt smelters have reduced production. It is expected that by May, SMM's nickel sulphate production will rise to approximately 26,000 mt in metal content, with a physical tonnage output of 118,300 mt, up about 0.39% MoM and down about 20.51% YoY.

Battery-grade manganese sulphate

In April 2025, the production of high-purity manganese sulphate achieved both MoM and YoY growth. The main reason is the high production stability of high-purity manganese sulphate smelters. Additionally, some producers increased production and stockpiled inventory in April in anticipation of equipment maintenance scheduled for May, leading to an increase in market supply. From the perspective of downstream demand, the price of cobalt sulphate fluctuated at highs in April, which also had a certain impact on the procurement of sulphates by precursor enterprises, failing to significantly benefit manganese salt smelters. Market activity remained low. Looking ahead to May 2025, it is expected that downstream ternary cathode precursor enterprises will continue to implement long-term contracts, with procurement volumes remaining stable. Meanwhile, due to planned equipment maintenance at some smelters, market production may experience a slight decline.

Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide

In April 2025, the production of electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD) increased slightly MoM and showed a relatively significant YoY increase. This was mainly due to the recovery of the downstream primary battery market, with slightly increased demand driving the production of carbon-zinc and alkaline-manganese dioxide. However, the downstream secondary battery market remained in the off-season, with no significant increase in demand, and the production of lithium manganese oxide (LMO)-type EMD remained stable. It is expected that by May 2025, the LMO market is likely to rebound, thereby promoting an increase in the production of lithium-manganese dioxide. Consequently, the total production of EMD is expected to continue showing a slight MoM growth trend in May.

Mn3O4

In April 2025, the production of Mn3O4 declined slightly MoM but still showed a certain YoY growth rate. This trend was mainly due to the weak performance of the LMO market, with a decrease in production in April and weak market stockpiling intentions, leading to a reduction in demand for Mn3O4, its main raw material. Additionally, electronic-grade Mn3O4 still faces overcapacity issues, resulting in low production enthusiasm among enterprises and a decrease in market supply. It is expected that by May 2025, the LMO market will rebound, with increased procurement demand driving an increase in the production of battery-grade Mn3O4. However, the oversupply situation in the electronic-grade market is difficult to change, and its production is expected to remain stable. Overall, the production of Mn3O4 is expected to increase slightly MoM in May.

High-carbon ferrochrome

According to SMM data, high-carbon ferrochrome prices surged significantly further in April 2025, increasing by 20.3% MoM but still decreasing by 4.17% YoY. Among them, Inner Mongolia accounted for 81.73% of production, with a MoM increase of 10.91%; Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi accounted for 9.1%, with a MoM increase of 156%. In April, the tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome procurement by mainstream stainless steel mills ended three consecutive months of lows, rising by 600 yuan/mt (50% metal content). Losses of ferrochrome producers has improved, and production enthusiasm has increased. Additionally, influenced by the previous tight supply of ferrochrome, the divergence between retail prices and tender prices of steel mills intensified. The average price of high-carbon ferrochrome increased by 500 yuan/mt (50% metal content) in mid-month, reaching 8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content), fluctuating at highs. Ferrochrome producers faced less difficulty in shipping goods, with profits repaired and production resumptions active. Coupled with the high planned production of downstream stainless steel, supporting the demand for ferrochrome, these factors jointly drove a significant increase in ferrochrome production. Looking ahead to May 2025, high-carbon ferrochrome production is expected to increase further. The tender price of mainstream steel mills for ferrochrome will rise by an additional 500 yuan/mt (50% metal content) in May, alleviating the losses of ferrochrome producers under long-term contracts and further stimulating production enthusiasm. Meanwhile, low-priced futures chrome ore before and after the Chinese New Year has arrived at ports successively, and combined with the previous spot chrome ore purchases, most ferrochrome producers have completed raw material stocking. Compared with the current spot chrome ore prices, production costs are relatively low. Additionally, south China is about to enter the rainy season, with advantages in electricity costs, further reducing production costs and leading to frequent production resumptions. Considering the impact of tariff policies on the downward trend of the downstream stainless steel market, the market is cautiously observing. Although there are news of production cuts, the overall planned production of stainless steel in May remains high. It is expected that robust demand will drive further growth in high-carbon ferrochrome production.

Stainless Steel

According to SMM survey data, China's stainless steel production in April 2025 declined slightly by 1.91% MoM and increased by 10.4% YoY. Among them, the production of the 200 series increased by 3.11% MoM, the 300 series decreased by 4.19% MoM, and the 400 series decreased by 2.12% MoM. Following the conclusion of annual routine maintenance and the off-season for consumption in January-February, the stainless steel market entered the traditional peak season of "golden March and silver April," with March production exceeding 3.4 million mt, hitting a record high. Despite a pullback in April production, it remained at a relatively high level. However, in early April, the US significantly increased tariffs on Chinese goods, triggering severe market volatility. Stainless steel futures prices plummeted, with the spot market quickly following suit. Cost-profit margins for some categories severely inverted, leading to significant changes in the market landscape. In terms of the performance of each series, the 300 series was the most severely impacted. Although high-grade NPI prices also pulled back simultaneously, the decline was significantly smaller than that of the 300 series stainless steel prices, exacerbating smelting losses. To cope with losses, multiple enterprises planned to reduce 300 series production and instead increase production of 200 series and 400 series products. In contrast, the 200 series stainless steel experienced a smaller price decline, with the short-process technology using stainless steel scrap as raw material still maintaining profitability, driving an increase in April production against the trend. Although the 400 series stainless steel faced rising costs due to tight supply of high-carbon ferrochrome, some enterprises managed to control costs by leveraging low-cost raw material inventories acquired earlier, with downstream enterprises even planning to increase production.

Looking ahead to May, despite stainless steel mills adjusting production volumes for different steel grades, overall production will remain at a relatively high level. With the conclusion of the traditional peak consumption season of "golden March and silver April," coupled with the ongoing impact of US tariff policies, wait-and-see sentiment in the market has intensified, with downstream customers primarily purchasing to meet immediate needs. Driven by futures prices, stainless steel spot prices continue to operate at low levels. Among them, the issue of cost inversion in the 300 series stainless steel is particularly prominent, driving a clear trend for enterprises to switch to other steel grades. Although prices for high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome have already declined, there is limited room for further decreases, and their price declines are less significant than those of finished stainless steel products. Although stainless steel scrap has certain cost advantages, its supply scale is limited, making it fundamentally unable to effectively alleviate the cost pressures faced by stainless steel enterprises. It is expected that in the future, as pressures from cost inversion and weak demand further intensify, stainless steel enterprises will further optimize their production strategies to better cope with the dual challenges of costs and demand.

EMM

In April 2025, China's EMM production decreased by approximately 2% MoM and increased by over 5% YoY. Although EMM plants in Guangxi and Guizhou, which had previously suspended production, resumed operations in April, leading to an increase in production, EMM plants in Hunan and other regions experienced a slight reduction in production due to shortages of manganese ore raw materials and equipment maintenance. Overall, the production decrease in some regions offset the increase in others, resulting in a net decrease in total EMM production in April.

Entering May, the overall operating rate of EMM plants remains at 70% of capacity. With the completion of equipment maintenance at some EMM plants, production is expected to increase slightly. Coupled with the increase in the number of days in the calendar month of May, the overall supply of EMM is expected to increase. According to the production schedule survey of EMM plants, production in the supply side is expected to increase in May.

SiMn Alloy

In April 2025, China's total SiMn alloy production decreased by approximately 9% MoM and over 12% YoY. The main reason for the decrease in SiMn production in April was that, although regions with relative cost advantages in the north, such as Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, maintained high operating rates compared to the south, severe cost inversions in SiMn plant production led to production cuts and suspensions at plant sites. In the south, due to relatively high prices of raw materials such as manganese ore, production pressures remained significant, with some SiMn plants suspending production. Overall, both northern and southern SiMn plants experienced production cuts and suspensions, resulting in a slight decrease in total SiMn production in April.

Entering May, SiMn inventories remain at a relatively high level. As May approaches the traditional off-season for steel consumption, the oversupply situation in the SiMn market has not changed. SiMn plants still have varying degrees of production cut and suspension plans. It is expected that the SiMn production schedule and transactions will remain under pressure in the coming market, so overall SiMn production in May is expected to continue to decrease.

Silicon Metal

According to SMM market exchanges, silicon metal production in April 2025 decreased by 12% MoM and 16% YoY. The cumulative silicon metal production from January to April 2025 decreased by 12.6% YoY.

Silicon metal production in March decreased significantly MoM, with the reduction mainly contributed by a large-scale production cut by a major plant in Xinjiang in April. Additionally, a small number of silicon enterprises in northwestern Gansu and other regions also reduced production, contributing to a decrease in supply. In terms of production increases, Sichuan's production increased by 6,700 mt MoM, driven by integrated supporting enterprises or silicon enterprises with cost advantages from small hydropower increasing or resuming production. Regarding new production capacity, due to the continuous decline in silicon metal prices, with the main silicon metal contract falling by over 12% in April, some new projects have been postponed.

In May, it is expected that China's silicon metal production will increase slightly by 0.4% MoM, but with significant uncertainty. Sichuan region is expected to see a relatively strong increase in supply due to the release of commissioned production capacity and the resumption of a small amount of production capacity. In Baoshan, Yunnan, silicon enterprises currently in operation have significantly reduced their production schedules for May, with the release of production from new projects being relatively limited. Suspended silicon enterprises have basically no intention of resuming production due to still being in the dry season. Therefore, Yunnan's production in May is expected to decrease MoM. In northern regions, due to silicon prices not yet hitting bottom and costs coming under renewed pressure, there is a possibility of sudden production cuts by northern silicon enterprises, introducing variables into regional supply.

Polysilicon

In April, the actual polysilicon production decreased slightly MoM compared to March, with a decrease of approximately 0.73%. The actual production in April fell short of expectations at the beginning of the month, mainly due to maintenance of some production capacities and delays in the commissioning of new capacities. Currently, polysilicon enterprises have limited production enthusiasm, with some enterprises planning to implement self-regulated production cuts in subsequent production. Although there are individual new capacities expected to be commissioned in May (with a total expected capacity of 150,000 mt), there are also multiple enterprises planning to cut production. Therefore, polysilicon production in May is still expected to decrease slightly MoM, with an estimated operating rate of 30-40%. The overseas polysilicon production is expected to be around 5,100 mt, with no significant fluctuations in production from April to May.

PV Modules

In April, the actual production of PV modules increased MoM compared to March, with an increase of approximately 16.5%. The actual production in April exceeded expectations at the beginning of the month, mainly due to relatively robust end-use demand ahead of the installation rush deadline on May 31st, leading to high production schedules across the board. In mid-to-late April, module prices showed a downward trend, and although enterprises had already planned production cuts, these would be reflected in the following month. Top-tier enterprises all have actual production cut plans, so it is expected that production output will decrease MoM in May.

PV Cells

In April, the production schedule of solar cells increased by 14.36% MoM, with Topcon cells growing by over 17%. The first and second halves of April showed a polarized trend. As the installation rush deadline of April 30th drew close, battery deliveries in the first half of April were gradually completed, and inventory buildup began in the market in the second half of the month.

PV Film

In April, the total production schedule for the PV film industry increased by 25.38% MoM. The main reason was the boost from the installation rush, leading to a surge in demand for distributed PV and an increase in module production schedules. Driven by strong demand from the demand side, film production increased. However, as the installation rush nears its end and demand slows down, it is expected that film production will show a downward trend in May.

PV-grade EVA

In April, the production schedule for PV-grade EVA increased by 15.17% MoM. The reasons include, firstly, some petrochemical enterprises switching to produce PV-grade EVA, and secondly, the boost from the dual policy deadlines of "April 30th" and "May 31st," leading to an increase in demand and consequently in the production of PV-grade EVA. According to SMM, with demand expected to decline in May, some petrochemical enterprises are expected to switch production or conduct maintenance, so it is expected that PV-grade EVA production will show a downward trend in May.

PV Glass

In April, the monthly production of domestic PV glass decreased slightly, with a decrease of 1.39% MoM compared to March. In April, the number of production days for domestic PV glass decreased by one day. Meanwhile, module demand remained high relative to the production schedule for glass, leading to an increased willingness to produce glass. Additionally, some kilns that started production in March slightly increased their output, and some blocked capacities were restored. As a result, the overall production of PV glass continued to increase in April. However, due to the decrease in module demand and the decline in module prices, the growth rate of domestic PV glass production in May is expected to slow down, with the operating rate projected to adjust to 52.55％.

DMC

In April, domestic silicone DMC production decreased by 8.04% MoM from March and 7.25% YoY. The domestic silicone market rapidly deteriorated in April, with prices falling sharply. The willingness of monomer enterprises to produce remained low, and large monomer enterprises entered maintenance periods in both April and May. However, as some monomer enterprises completed their maintenance periods, some production lines resumed operation, reducing the decline in production compared to the previous period. The operating rate is expected to slightly decrease to 56.10％ in May, but the rate of decline will narrow.

Magnesium Ingots

According to SMM data, China's primary magnesium production decreased by 4.9% MoM in April 2025, and magnesium ingot production decreased by 5.5% MoM.

The production of domestic magnesium ingot producers fluctuated in April. Overall, the national magnesium ingot production decreased MoM. The decrease in production this month was mainly caused by the following three reasons: Firstly, magnesium ingot prices fell below the break-even point in March. Under the pressure of losses, some magnesium ingot smelters conducted maintenance in March, affecting the primary magnesium production in April. Secondly, magnesium plants were affected by environmental protection factors such as the storage sites for magnesium slag solid waste. Two magnesium ingot smelters in Shaanxi were affected and underwent maintenance and rectification. Thirdly, two magnesium ingot smelters conducted maintenance or halted production due to sudden production issues, resulting in a production cut of 1,600 mt in April. The increase in production this month was mainly due to the following reasons: As magnesium prices surged past the 16,000 yuan threshold at the end of March, magnesium ingot transaction prices fluctuated rangebound between 16,300-16,800 yuan/mt in April. The profit margins of magnesium ingot smelters were effectively restored, and enterprises that had previously undergone maintenance gradually resumed production.

Currently, smelters in the main production areas of magnesium ingots have indicated plans to resume production in May, though the specific timing remains undetermined. SMM will continue to track this development. Overall, domestic magnesium ingot smelter production is expected to rise in May, with a projected MoM increase of 4.2% in raw magnesium output.

Magnesium Alloy

According to SMM data, China's magnesium alloy production in April 2025 increased by 14.7% MoM, with a significant rise in the operating rate of magnesium alloy enterprises this month.

Domestic magnesium alloy manufacturers saw production increase as expected this month, driven by three main factors: First, the impact of the US-China tariff war has led Chinese companies to exhibit a noticeable "export rush" phenomenon, where companies ship goods ahead of the official implementation of tariff hikes to avoid higher future tariffs. This has temporarily boosted April's magnesium alloy production, creating a phase of growth. Second, March and April are peak seasons for downstream magnesium alloy die-casting plants, leading to a significant increase in orders. With new capacity coming online in April, magnesium alloy production is expected to increase slightly in May.

Magnesium Powder

SMM data shows that China's magnesium powder production in April 2025 saw a slight MoM increase. Most magnesium powder enterprises maintained normal production last month, with downstream steel mills sustaining basic procurement needs, keeping magnesium powder production stable. A representative from a major magnesium powder enterprise noted that due to domestic economic weakness and thin steel mill profits, downstream procurement remains cautious. Overall demand remains stable, and domestic magnesium powder production is expected to continue a slight increase in April.

Titanium Dioxide

According to SMM data, China's titanium dioxide production in April 2025 increased slightly MoM.

Due to significant cost increases in raw materials such as sulphuric acid and titanium concentrate, leading enterprises in the industry have issued price adjustment notices, keeping titanium dioxide market quotes firm. Additionally, some titanium dioxide enterprises that previously reduced or halted production have correspondingly increased their operating rates.

In May, due to overall demand falling short of expectations and some foreign trade exports being blocked, enterprises face significant shipment pressure, with some manufacturers' inventories gradually rising. High raw material costs and weak market demand in May are expected to lead to a reduction in titanium dioxide production.

Sponge Titanium

According to SMM data, China's sponge titanium production in April 2025 increased slightly MoM.

In April, the supply-demand pattern in the sponge titanium market reversed, entering a destocking phase. Active transactions in the downstream titanium material market led to a noticeable reduction in enterprise inventories, causing tight spot supply of sponge titanium. The price adjustment strategies of sponge titanium enterprises have gradually been accepted by the downstream market and were reinforced by pre-holiday stockpiling demand from downstream manufacturers. SMM analysis predicts that sponge titanium production will continue to rebound in May.

Light Rare Earth

In April 2025, domestic Pr-Nd oxide production increased slightly, while Pr-Nd alloy production saw a minor decline. Pr-Nd oxide production rose by approximately 1.24% MoM, with a reduction in Shandong offset by a larger increase in Jiangxi. Pr-Nd alloy production decreased by about 0.07% MoM, primarily in Inner Mongolia.

It is understood that the reopening of Myanmar mines ensured ample raw material supply in April, leading to a slight increase in Pr-Nd oxide production. However, due to export controls, downstream demand decreased, resulting in a relatively sluggish market procurement. Some metal plants halted furnaces and cut production, leading to a slight MoM decline in Pr-Nd alloy production.

Given the current market conditions, with reduced US ore supply, weak downstream demand, and insufficient supply of magnetic scrap, Pr-Nd production is expected to continue declining in May.

Medium-Heavy Rare Earth

In April 2025, most medium-heavy rare earth oxide production decreased MoM compared to March, with holmium oxide production remaining flat.

According to SMM surveys, the reduction in medium-heavy rare earth production was mainly concentrated in Jiangxi, as the export restrictions on high-performance magnets in early April significantly increased the difficulty of procuring NdFeB scrap, leading to a decline in the operating rates of some scrap enterprises. Some enterprises reported equipment maintenance this month, causing a slight MoM production decline, though normal production has since resumed.

NdFeB

In April 2025, domestic NdFeB magnet production decreased by approximately 2.3% YoY. According to SMM surveys, magnetic material enterprises, affected by export controls and the trade war, saw orders fall short of expectations, leading to a YoY decline. Weak end-use demand further exacerbated the pressure on magnetic material enterprises, with operating rates declining MoM, resulting in reduced production in April.

As May is the "off-season" for the rare earth industry, end-use demand is unlikely to improve significantly. Considering the impact of export controls and the industry's off-season, NdFeB magnet production is expected to continue declining in May.

Molybdenum Concentrate

According to SMM data, China's molybdenum concentrate production in April 2025 increased slightly MoM.

In mid-to-late April, the domestic molybdenum market continued to show strong upward momentum, with mines and suppliers holding back sales and standing firm on quotes, making market supply relatively scarce. Smelting plants continuously raised their quotes, and the latest round of steel mill tender prices further increased, effectively restoring the profitability of molybdenum concentrate. Molybdenum mine enterprises saw an increase in operating rates. With molybdenum concentrate prices continuing to rise in April, smelting enterprises are expected to further increase operating rates. SMM analysis predicts that molybdenum concentrate production will continue to rise in May 2025.

Ferromolybdenum

According to SMM statistics, China's ferromolybdenum production in April 2025 increased slightly MoM.

In the ferromolybdenum market, despite a significant price increase in late April, high production costs and strong price pressure from steel mills continue to pose significant challenges for intermediate smelting enterprises, with cost-revenue inversion risks unresolved. Due to the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, ferromolybdenum market profits have not turned positive, with some smelting enterprises choosing only a slight increase in operating rates. As downstream demand gradually recovers, ferromolybdenum production is expected to continue a slight MoM increase in May.

Ammonium Paratungstate (APT)

According to SMM data, China's APT production in April 2025 decreased by approximately 1% MoM. The tungsten market overall showed weak supply and demand. Reduced mine supply led to a significant increase in raw material prices, which in turn drove up APT prices. However, despite some improvement in downstream enterprise order demand, it fell short of expected growth, with limited acceptance of high APT prices. Downstream enterprises adopted a just-in-time procurement strategy. Due to worsening cost-revenue inversion and weak downstream procurement demand, APT production declined.

Looking ahead to May, as downstream market demand gradually recovers, just-in-time procurement is expected to increase, potentially leading to some growth in APT production. However, overall demand remains limited, and the growth is expected to be modest.

Silver

In April 2025, silver production decreased by 1% MoM. Due to spring maintenance at some lead-zinc smelters from March to April, silver production also declined. However, after completing maintenance, smelters in Yunnan, Shandong, and Gansu saw increased anode slime production, becoming the main source of silver production growth. Meanwhile, production at two smelters in South and Southwest China declined, leading to reduced supply.

Looking ahead to May, although some copper smelters indicated that declining imported ore TC may affect the recovery expectations of precious and rare metals, production increase plans and resumptions at smelters in North China and Yunnan are expected to offset these reductions. Therefore, silver production is expected to continue a MoM increase in May.

Silver Nitrate

In April 2025, silver nitrate production maintained steady growth, with an 18.37% MoM increase. On one hand, solar cell production increased as expected in April, and the PV installation rush boosted demand for silver powder and paste, driving silver nitrate production based on sales orders. As May begins, there may be pessimistic expectations for orders in the PV sector. However, silver nitrate producers generally indicate that there are no plans to adjust production operations for now, and silver nitrate production in May is expected to maintain positive growth, albeit with relatively limited increases.

Antimony Ingot

According to SMM's assessment, China's antimony ingot (including antimony ingot, crude antimony conversion, antimony cathode, etc.) production in April 2025 will decline significantly by approximately 10% MoM compared to the previous month. Specifically, among the 33 surveyed producers evaluated by SMM, 8 producers have halted production, a decrease of 4 from the previous month; 21 producers have reduced their production, an increase of 4 from the previous month; and 4 producers have maintained relatively normal production levels, unchanged from the previous month. From the perspective of antimony ingot production, antimony production in April declined again after rebounding in March. Many market participants consider this a normal phenomenon, as numerous overseas ore sources remain unable to enter the domestic market, coupled with poor mining progress in northern ore sources, with many mines still in the process of gradual recovery or remaining suspended. Currently, many market participants indicate that the overall domestic raw material supply remains tight, and the reluctance of antimony ore suppliers to sell is still evident. Many producers state that their current inventory is still in a de-stocking phase. If future increases in domestic mine raw material supply can alleviate the raw material shortage, production in May may show signs of recovery; otherwise, the market inventory de-stocking trend will continue. Market participants anticipate that national antimony ingot production in May 2025 is likely to still decline compared to April, although there is also a possibility of it remaining flat. Based on the current situation, the likelihood of an increase is relatively small.

Note: Since May 2022, SMM has been publishing its assessed production of antimony ingot (including antimony ingot, crude antimony conversion, antimony cathode, etc.) nationwide. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, SMM has surveyed a total of 33 antimony ingot producers, distributed across 8 provinces nationwide, with a total sample capacity exceeding 20,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Sodium Pyroantimonate

According to SMM's assessment, China's production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate in April 2025 will decline by approximately 1.8% MoM compared to the previous month, remaining basically stable after a significant rebound in the previous month. Many market participants consider this a normal phenomenon, as antimony prices have been rising since late February, leading to an increase in orders from glass factories. The production increases of many producers in March were also related to receiving more orders, and it is reasonable for this situation to continue into April. Regarding other detailed data, among SMM's 11 surveyed producers, 2 were in a state of shutdown or commissioning in April, 4 sodium pyroantimonate producers experienced production growth, and 2 producers saw a significant decline in production, resulting in overall production remaining basically stable with a slight decline. Market participants anticipate that the possibility of a continued decline in national sodium pyroantimonate production in May compared to April is small, with a greater likelihood of it remaining flat or increasing slightly.

Note: Since July 2023, SMM has been publishing its assessed production of sodium pyroantimonate nationwide. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, SMM has surveyed a total of 11 sodium pyroantimonate producers, distributed across 5 provinces nationwide, with a total sample capacity exceeding 75,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of 99%.

Refined Bismuth

According to SMM's assessment, China's refined bismuth production in April 2025 is expected to increase by approximately 2.4% MoM compared to March's nationwide production. After a rebound in bismuth production last month, the overall output has stabilized. Market participants indicated that due to the extended Chinese New Year holiday in February, many enterprises experienced shutdowns, leading to a decline in bismuth production to a low point. Consequently, production rebounded in March. However, given the current tight raw material supply, it is reasonable for production growth to stall. From the perspective of manufacturers' production status, some enterprises are still undergoing equipment maintenance, while the production status of others remains largely unchanged, resulting in relatively stable domestic overall production in April. Detailed data analysis reveals that among SMM's 24 surveyed entities, 2 enterprises saw a significant increase in production in April, while 2 experienced a slight decline, with the remaining enterprises showing minimal changes in output. Many market participants anticipate that production by bismuth manufacturers nationwide will continue to stabilize in May. Despite the Labour Day holiday, the impact is expected to be minimal. There is a higher likelihood of stable or slightly declining refined bismuth production. However, considering the potential continuation of tight raw material supply, it cannot be ruled out that production may experience another significant decline.

Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing its assessed nationwide refined bismuth production. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, the total number of surveyed refined bismuth producers by SMM is 24, distributed across 8 provinces nationwide, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Lithium Carbonate

In April 2025, SMM's total lithium carbonate production decreased by 7% MoM but increased by 40% YoY. Following the record-high total output of lithium carbonate in March, the domestic surplus of lithium carbonate further widened, leading to a continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices. Coupled with the relatively slow decline in ore prices, some enterprises faced cost pressures, resulting in varying degrees of production cuts or suspensions. Domestic total output decreased, although it remained at a high level.

By raw material type, the total production of lithium carbonate derived from spodumene in April decreased by 16% MoM. Apart from the reduction caused by annual routine maintenance at some lithium chemical plants, the output of some non-integrated lithium chemical plants significantly decreased due to cost pressures and a reduction in toll processing orders. Overall, the output of lithium carbonate derived from spodumene decreased significantly. Although some small and medium-sized lithium chemical plants using lepidolite had already reduced production due to the continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices, the strong supplementation from leading lithium chemical plants resulted in a certain increase in lithium carbonate production derived from lepidolite, up 4% MoM. The gradual warming of temperatures in salt lake regions boosted lithium carbonate production, with overall production increasing by 10% MoM. Lithium chemical recycling plants, still facing severe losses, had limited increases in production, mainly relying on integrated recycling plants and toll processing orders for some output support, with a MoM increase of only 2%.

Lithium Hydroxide

According to SMM, lithium hydroxide production remained relatively stable MoM in April, with a decrease of over 25% YoY. From the perspective of raw materials, some enterprises in the smelting sector experienced production line shutdowns or maintenance, resulting in a slight reduction in output. However, some enterprises had a slight increase in output due to carbonisation needs. Overall, with most enterprises maintaining relatively stable production, the total output of the smelting sector remained basically flat MoM. In the causticisation sector, due to overall low production caused by losses and high inventory levels, as well as a pessimistic outlook on the market, some enterprises shifted their raw materials to produce battery-grade lithium carbonate, resulting in a decreasing trend in causticisation sector production, down 8% MoM and 43% YoY. In May, the production situation in the lithium hydroxide supply sector is expected to remain relatively stable, with output basically flat and a decrease of around 30% YoY.

Cobalt Sulphate

In April 2025, cobalt sulphate production increased by 11% MoM. With improved profitability of cobalt sulphate products, enterprises increased their capacity utilization rates, and the release of new capacity brought about a certain increase in output, resulting in a MoM increase in production this month. Entering May, some enterprises may experience production cuts due to tight raw material supply, and overall output is expected to decline. It is anticipated that cobalt sulphate production in May will decrease by approximately 8% MoM.

Co3O4

In April 2025, the production of Co3O4 increased significantly, with both MoM and YoY growth. The main reason is that downstream LCO manufacturers had low inventory levels and, to maintain normal production, had strong procurement demand for Co3O4. Additionally, some manufacturers, concerned about a potential future increase in spot prices of Co3O4, engaged in purchasing in advance, further enhancing market activity and boosting the planned production of Co3O4 by enterprises. It is expected that in May 2025, due to the depletion of downstream LCO manufacturers' inventory to a low level and the stockpiling demand brought about by the launch of new car models, a new round of procurement peaks may occur, further increasing the order volume of Co3O4 enterprises and achieving continuous MoM and YoY growth.

Ternary Cathode Precursor

In April 2025, China's ternary cathode precursor production increased by 0.36% MoM but decreased by 5.55% YoY. In terms of series proportion, 5-series accounted for 22%, 6-series accounted for 39%, and 8-series accounted for 29%, with the proportion of 6-series precursors showing a relatively significant increase. In the domestic market, consumer and small power precursors benefited from good downstream demand and a large number of orders, driving an increase in supply. The operating rates of enterprises mainly producing consumer precursors also increased. In contrast, the increase in EV-oriented precursors was relatively limited, mainly relying on existing projects to maintain production, lacking the driving force of new demand. In the overseas market, affected by recent adjustments in US tariff policies, some Japan and South Korea ternary cathode material enterprises reduced their orders, leading to a decrease in orders for some domestic precursor plants mainly serving the overseas market. For these reasons, the overall market supply of precursors remained basically flat compared to the previous month. Looking ahead to May, it is expected that the increase in demand will still be limited. Additionally, with downstream ternary cathode material plants generally in the destocking phase, the supply of precursors may decrease by 1.01% MoM.

Ternary Cathode Material

In April 2025, the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 7.38% MoM but decreased by 4.77% YoY. The overall operating rate of the industry was 41%, showing a rebound compared to March. In terms of series proportion, 5-series accounted for 20%, 6-series accounted for 31%, and 8-series accounted for 37% in April. Among them, the proportion of 6-series materials further increased due to their increasingly significant cost advantages. The overall trend towards high-nickel ternary cathode materials continued, although the pace slowed down. In the domestic market, the recent good demand in downstream applications such as power tools and robots drove the growth in demand for consumer and small power ternary cathode materials, and the supply also increased significantly. In contrast, the EV-oriented ternary cathode material market lacked the driving force of new demand. In the overseas market, some NEV sales performed well, and some brands' new car models were in the pre-launch preparation stage, bringing about certain new demand. Looking ahead to May, the demand for consumer and small power materials is expected to continue to climb, while the increase in demand for EV-oriented materials will still be relatively limited. It is anticipated that the overall market supply will increase by 2.61% MoM.

Iron Phosphate

In April, the domestic iron phosphate market exhibited a "high YoY growth, stable MoM" trend, with production increasing by 60% YoY and remaining stable MoM. On the supply side, multiple factors intertwined. Some iron phosphate enterprises experienced a phased reduction in supply due to maintenance plans, while orders for integrated large plants declined, leading to a corresponding decrease in self-supplied iron phosphate production. However, enterprises with price advantages significantly increased their order volume and production due to market competitiveness. Under the dynamic balance of reduction and increase, the supply of iron phosphate ultimately remained flat compared to the previous month. On the demand side, there was no significant growth in downstream LFP market demand in April, and procurement demand remained generally stable, failing to form a strong boost for the iron phosphate market. On the cost side, the price of industrial-grade MAP remained high in the first half of April and only slightly pulled back in the second half. Despite the reduction in raw material costs, the current iron phosphate price still struggles to fully cover costs. Coupled with the ongoing intense market price competition, corporate profit margins are continuously compressed. Some iron phosphate enterprises have planned to conduct maintenance or production cuts on their production lines in May. In May, the planned production increase in the iron phosphate market is expected to significantly slow down, with the increase mainly concentrated in enterprises with new capacity and those with price or resource advantages. It is anticipated that iron phosphate production will increase by 4% MoM and 40% YoY in May, and the market competition landscape may be further reshaped.

LFP

In April, China's LFP production increased slightly by 2% MoM and surged by 93% YoY. Supply side, a few leading producers experienced lower-than-expected production, partly due to industry-wide supply chain restructuring, and partly due to power rationing, production line upgrades, or maintenance at some material plants. However, production at the second and third tiers remained relatively active. In terms of RC, iron phosphate raw material prices began to decline slightly in the second half of April, leading to a slight pullback in raw material costs for material plants. Additionally, some battery cell manufacturers are expected to restart tenders from June, so LFP processing fees will remain unchanged before this period, with little room for an increase. Demand side, end-use demand for NEVs performed well in April, though some ESS orders were affected. However, overall demand saw a slight increase driven by NEV demand. Looking ahead to May, ESS market demand is expected to continue to be impacted by US tariff policies and the domestic cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation, leading to a slight decrease. However, the NEV market is still expected to perform well, with overall battery cell production schedules and LFP material production both projected to increase slightly in May.

LCO

In April 2025, LCO production increased by 27% MoM. On the demand side, new 3C consumer electronics devices will be released in H2, and stockpiling began in April, with the market in peak demand season and downstream demand significantly increasing. On the supply side, LCO prices are mainly influenced by upstream cobalt tetroxide and lithium carbonate prices. Recently, cobalt prices surged due to policy changes in the DRC, and the market generally expects cobalt prices to rise in the future, leading to relatively low long-term contract willingness and a preference for spot purchasing.

In May, the downstream consumer market is expected to grow steadily, and downstream battery cell manufacturers will increase their purchase volumes of LCO materials. LCO producers' production schedules are also expected to rise accordingly, potentially increasing by 15% MoM.

LMO

In April 2025, LMO production decreased slightly MoM, but YoY growth remained significant. This decline was mainly due to the drop in lithium carbonate prices, leading to a synchronized decline in LMO prices and increased losses. Some small enterprises lacking cost advantages faced difficulties, resulting in partial production cuts or shutdowns, and a slight decrease in market supply. However, leading LMO producers maintained stable production, and market concentration increased. By May 2025, with the recovery of downstream demand, stockpiling demand for LMO materials is expected to increase, boosting market activity and inquiries, which will positively drive LMO production. Therefore, LMO production is expected to increase slightly MoM in May, with YoY growth rate remaining stable.

*Survey Methodology

SMM's production survey is conducted by professional analysts through phone calls, field surveys, and other methods, regularly tracking monthly production of Chinese metal producers and issuing China's metal production reports.

During the survey process, the basic coverage ratio of samples is ensured and continuously expanded. At the same time, factors such as capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature are considered to reasonably select and allocate samples, ensuring the representativeness of each sub-item data.

At the end of each month, the reports are released through official channels such as the SMM official website (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account, and mobile site (m.smm.cn).