In March, the import profit/loss of aluminum narrowed, while the net import of primary aluminum surged MoM

SMM 4.21

Primary Aluminum Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's primary aluminum imports in March 2025 were approximately 222,000 mt, up 10.9% MoM but down 11.0% YoY. The cumulative imports of primary aluminum from January to March 2025 totaled around 563,000 mt, down 21.7% YoY.
Primary Aluminum Exports: Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China's primary aluminum exports in March 2025 were about 9,000 mt, up 153.9% MoM and 643.0% YoY. The cumulative exports of primary aluminum from January to March 2025 reached approximately 21,000 mt, up 857.4% YoY.
Primary Aluminum Net Imports: The cumulative net imports of primary aluminum from January to March 2025 were around 563,000 mt, down 21.7% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.)

From the perspective of import source countries, the main sources of domestic primary aluminum imports in March 2025 were the Russian Federation, India, China, Australia, Iran, and other countries and regions. Among them, the primary aluminum imports from Russia in March amounted to approximately 202,000 mt, up 74.1% YoY, accounting for 90.6% of the total imports in March. In addition, the primary aluminum imports from China in March were about 4,200 mt, down 82.0% YoY. This was mainly due to the export of Chinese alumina to Russia, which was processed into aluminum ingots and then re-imported into the Chinese market. In terms of the origin of the aluminum ingots, Russian aluminum ingots still dominated, resulting in a total import volume of Russian sources reaching 205,000 mt in March, accounting for 92.3% of the total domestic primary aluminum imports. Currently, overseas primary aluminum imports are in a loss-making state, but compared to the earlier import loss of around 3,000 yuan/mt, it had narrowed to approximately 957.9 yuan/mt as of April 18. The narrowing of import profit/loss stimulated overseas sources to ship to China, seeking opportunities to enter the domestic spot market. SMM learned that the import profit/loss narrowed to 1,000 yuan/mt in late March, leading to the frequent appearance of import sources in the domestic spot market. Furthermore, in March 2025, some non-major import source countries increased, such as Jordan and Morocco.

From the trade mode perspective, the import loss of primary aluminum in March gradually narrowed, and suppliers' willingness to clear customs and ship to the Chinese market increased, leading to a rise in overseas supply in the spot market. Additionally, with the commissioning of aluminum smelters in Southeast Asia and other regions, the trade modes of processing with supplied materials and processing with imported materials increased in Q1 2025, accounting for 2.58% of primary aluminum imports, up 0.55% YoY.

SMM Brief: Currently, aluminum prices maintain a trend where the overseas market outperforms the domestic market. The domestic import window remains closed, but the import loss has narrowed to around 957 yuan/mt. Overseas suppliers' willingness to clear customs and ship to China has risen. SMM expects domestic primary aluminum net imports to remain high in April.