Hydrogen Energy Industry To Usher In Rapid Development Thanks To Continuous Cost Reduction

At the Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Forum of the CLNB 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Chain Expo hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Chen Hao, Director of the Hydrogen Energy Research Institute of Risun Group, provided an interpretation of China's low-carbon hydrogen industry policies. He stated that in the future, the cost of the green hydrogen market will continue to decline, and this cost reduction will enhance the market competitiveness of hydrogen energy, promote the rapid development of the hydrogen energy industry, accelerate the promotion and application of hydrogen energy technologies in various fields, and drive energy transformation. In 2025, hydrogen energy storage installations will exceed 2 GW, corresponding to a market size of 30 billion yuan. By 2030, the penetration rate of hydrogen energy in the ESS sector will reach 15%, with the industry chain scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan, leading the energy revolution.

Definitions and Carbon Emission Standards for Low-Carbon Hydrogen

Hydrogen energy is an inevitable choice for the evolution of energy decarbonization.

Concept and Classification of Low-Carbon Hydrogen

It's not just about hydrogen energy, but low-carbon hydrogen energy.

On December 29, 2020, the "Standards and Evaluation for Low-Carbon Hydrogen, Clean Hydrogen, and Renewable Hydrogen," proposed by the China Hydrogen Alliance, was officially released. This standard is the world's first quantitative hydrogen standard and evaluation system established using the life cycle assessment method. It reclassifies hydrogen energy from the perspective of carbon emissions, promoting the green development of the entire hydrogen energy industry chain from the source. Meanwhile, in accordance with the hydrogen source identification requirements of demonstration city clusters, this standard is used for hydrogen energy carbon emission certification and carbon footprint tracing, aiming to regulate industry development.

Costs and Carbon Emissions of Various Hydrogen Production Methods

Clean and Low-Carbon Hydrogen Certification

China has benchmarked against relevant European projects and conducted a systematic survey of China's hydrogen supply situation, innovatively proposing the "Two Lines, Three Zones" paradigm. This paradigm not only aligns with international methodologies and clean hydrogen indicators but also fully considers China's current reality, which is dominated by industrial hydrogen, based on national conditions. It proposes China's hydrogen standards, which are also the world's only standards that propose specific quantitative carbon emission values.

The National Demonstration Application of Fuel Cell Vehicle City Clusters provides an additional 3-point reward for enterprises that meet clean hydrogen conditions (7 points per 100 mt, with 1 point equivalent to 100,000 yuan).

Risun Hydrogen Energy successfully passed the certification of the "Standards and Evaluation for Low-Carbon Hydrogen, Clean Hydrogen, and Renewable Hydrogen" through the National Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Vehicle Demonstration Evaluation Platform, becoming one of the first domestic enterprises to officially obtain clean hydrogen certification in demonstration city clusters.

Interpretation of China's Low-Carbon Hydrogen Policy System

National Top-Level Strategic Layout

1. "Medium and Long-Term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)"

This plan positions hydrogen energy as an important component of the national energy system for the first time, clarifies the strategic direction for the development of the hydrogen energy industry, and provides policy guidance for industry development. It proposes the construction of a "1+N" policy framework, covering multiple aspects such as technology R&D, industrial applications, and standard construction, forming a systematic policy support system.

2. "Implementation Plan for Accelerating the Application of Clean and Low-Carbon Hydrogen in the Industrial Sector"

This plan clearly sets the goal of achieving large-scale application of low-carbon hydrogen in industries such as metallurgy, chemicals, and refining by 2027, promoting the deep integration of hydrogen energy with traditional industries. It supports "hydrogen production + hydrogen utilization" integrated projects, promotes new models such as offshore wind power-based hydrogen production and industrial waste heat-coupled hydrogen production, and facilitates the diversified development of the hydrogen energy industry.

3. "Energy Law of the People's Republic of China"

This law establishes the energy attribute of hydrogen energy from a legal perspective for the first time, providing a legal basis for the development of the hydrogen energy industry and ensuring its long-term stable development. It promotes the inclusion of hydrogen energy in the national energy management system, facilitates the coordinated development of hydrogen energy with traditional energy sources, and enhances the overall efficiency of the energy system.

Implementation Plan for Clean and Low-Carbon Hydrogen Applications in the Industrial Sector

The industrial sector is a key area for hydrogen energy applications. According to forecasts by the International Energy Agency, by 2030, large-scale applications of hydrogen metallurgy can be achieved, with global annual hydrogen demand reaching 6.6-14 million mt. The annual hydrogen demand for green methanol and green ammonia will exceed 48 million mt.

Accelerating the application of clean and low-carbon hydrogen in the industrial sector is an important measure to fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, a crucial path to promoting energy conservation, carbon reduction, and advancing new industrialization, and an important direction for driving the high-quality development of the hydrogen energy industry and cultivating new quality productive forces.

Overall Requirements:

Fully implement the deployments of the National Conference on Promoting New Industrialization, adhere to the new development philosophy, accelerate the construction of a new development paradigm, focus on promoting high-quality development, take expanding the application scenarios of clean and low-carbon hydrogen in the industrial sector as the focal point, strengthen supply-demand matching, accelerate the upgrading of technology, equipment, and products, and promote the integrated development of the industry chain: Create new growth points for industrial transformation and upgrading and form new quality productive forces.

Main Objectives:

By 2027, positive progress will be made in supporting equipment and technology promotion for clean and low-carbon hydrogen applications in the industrial sector. Clean and low-carbon hydrogen will achieve large-scale applications in industries such as metallurgy, ammonia synthesis, methanol synthesis, and refining, as well as demonstration applications in fields such as industrial green microgrids, ships, aviation, and rail transit, forming a batch of commercial application models for hydrogen energy in transportation, power generation, and energy storage. A group of leading enterprises with strong industrial ecological dominance and industrial clusters, as well as system solution providers with high professional levels and strong service capabilities, will be cultivated, and a relatively complete industrial chain and industrial system will be initially constructed.

Key Tasks of the Implementation Plan for Clean and Low-Carbon Hydrogen

Support Measures for the Implementation Plan for Clean and Low-Carbon Hydrogen

Local Policy Innovation and Practice

Local Subsidy Policies

In 2024, the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area launched 18 hydrogen energy subsidy policies, with a maximum support of 20 million yuan for a single project and a subsidy of up to 10 yuan/kg for the selling price of hydrogen at hydrogen refueling stations, effectively reducing enterprise costs.

Multiple regions offer preferential electricity prices for renewable energy-based hydrogen production projects, such as 0.25 yuan/kWh, enabling the cost of green hydrogen to be reduced to below 18 yuan/kg and enhancing the market competitiveness of green hydrogen.

Regional Coordinated Development

Regions such as Sichuan and Chongqing and the Yangtze River Delta have planned "hydrogen corridors," constructed hydrogen refueling station networks, promoted the construction of cross-regional hydrogen energy logistics systems, and facilitated the coordinated development of regional hydrogen energy industries.

Through regional coordination, the optimal allocation of hydrogen energy resources is achieved, the overall efficiency of the hydrogen energy industry is enhanced, and the large-scale development of the hydrogen energy industry is promoted.

Highway Toll Exemption Policies

Provinces such as Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and Chongqing, Jilin, and Shaanxi have all issued policies for exempting hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from highway tolls. Calculated based on the full life cycle of fuel cell heavy-duty trucks, it is estimated that each vehicle can save approximately 300,000 yuan. Various regions are exploring the construction of hydrogen energy highways, further enhancing the large-scale application of hydrogen vehicles.

Significance of Local Policy Innovation

Local policy innovation provides diversified support for the development of the hydrogen energy industry, stimulates market vitality, and promotes the localized development of the hydrogen energy industry in different regions.

Through local policy guidance, the deep integration of the hydrogen energy industry with local economic development is promoted, industrial clusters are formed, and the economic competitiveness of regions is enhanced.

Industrial Support and Standard Construction

Financial Support Policies:

In 2024, the central government's demonstration reward funds for fuel cell vehicles reached 1.625 billion yuan, with a cumulative total of 2.767 billion yuan, effectively driving the development of the fuel cell vehicle industry. Financial support policies provide funding guarantees for enterprise technology R&D and market promotion, accelerate the commercialization process of the hydrogen energy industry, and enhance the industry's scale effect.

Standard System Construction:

The release of the world's first green hydrogen standard promotes the accounting and international mutual recognition of hydrogen energy carbon footprints, accelerates the green certification of the industry chain, and enhances China's international discourse power in the hydrogen energy industry. A comprehensive standard system helps regulate market order, ensure product quality, promote the sustainable development of the hydrogen energy industry, and enhance international competitiveness.

Significance of Industrial Support and Standard Construction:

Industrial support policies and standard system construction provide comprehensive support for the development of the hydrogen energy industry, promoting technological innovation and market expansion in the hydrogen energy industry. Through policy guidance and standard specifications, the high-quality development of the hydrogen energy industry is driven, China's position in the global hydrogen energy industry is elevated, and the goal of carbon neutrality is facilitated.

Market Size and Technological Breakthroughs

1. Cost Reduction Trend

The cost of green hydrogen is expected to decrease from the current 20-25 yuan/kg to 15 yuan/kg by 2030. The production capacity of large-scale electrolyzers will reach 250,000 mt/year by 2025, driving the large-scale application of hydrogen energy.

Cost reduction will enhance the market competitiveness of hydrogen energy, promote the rapid development of the hydrogen energy industry, accelerate the promotion and application of hydrogen energy technologies in various fields, and drive energy transformation.

2. Installation Growth Forecast

In 2025, hydrogen energy storage installations will exceed 2 GW, corresponding to a market size of 30 billion yuan. By 2030, the penetration rate of hydrogen energy in the ESS sector will reach 15%, with the industry chain scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan, leading the energy revolution.

Installation growth will drive the large-scale development of the hydrogen energy industry, enhance the position of the hydrogen energy industry in the energy sector, promote continuous innovation and upgrading of hydrogen energy technologies, and provide strong support for achieving the goal of carbon neutrality.

3. Significance of Market Size and Technological Breakthroughs

Cost reduction and installation growth will drive the rapid development of the hydrogen energy industry, enhancing its position and influence in the energy sector.

Through technological innovation and industrial upgrading, the promotion and application of hydrogen energy technologies in various fields will be accelerated, driving energy transformation and sustainable development, and facilitating the achievement of the carbon neutrality goal.

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