The cost of the future green hydrogen market will gradually decrease, and the ESS installations for hydrogen may exceed 2GW by 2025 [New Energy Summit].

At the 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Expo - Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Chen Hao, Director of the Hydrogen Energy Research Institute at Xuyang Group, interpreted China's low-carbon hydrogen industry policies. He stated that the cost of the green hydrogen market will continue to decline in the future, which will enhance the competitiveness of the hydrogen energy market, promote the rapid development of the hydrogen energy industry, accelerate the application of hydrogen energy technology in various fields, and drive energy transformation. By 2025, hydrogen energy storage installations are expected to exceed 2GW, corresponding to a market size of 30 billion yuan. By 2030, the penetration rate of hydrogen energy in the ESS sector is projected to reach 15%, with the industry chain scale exceeding 10 trillion yuan, leading the energy revolution. Definition and Carbon Emission Standards of Low-Carbon Hydrogen Hydrogen energy is an inevitable choice for energy decarbonization. Concept and Classification of Low-Carbon Hydrogen Not just hydrogen energy, but low-carbon hydrogen energy. On December 29, 2020, the "Standards and Evaluation for Low-Carbon Hydrogen, Clean Hydrogen, and Renewable Hydrogen" proposed by the China Hydrogen Alliance was officially released. This standard is the world's first hydrogen quantification standard and evaluation system established using the life cycle assessment method. It reclassifies hydrogen energy from the perspective of carbon emissions, promoting green development across the entire industry chain. Additionally, according to the hydrogen source identification requirements of demonstration city clusters, this standard is used for hydrogen carbon emission certification and carbon footprint tracing to regulate industry development. Cost and Carbon Emissions of Various Hydrogen Production Methods Clean Low-Carbon Hydrogen Certification China has benchmarked relevant European projects and systematically assessed the hydrogen supply situation in China. Innovatively, it proposed the "Two Lines and Three Zones" paradigm—aligning with international standards in methodology and clean hydrogen indicators while considering China's current industrial hydrogen reality. This standard is the only one in the world to propose specific quantified carbon emission values. National fuel cell vehicle city cluster demonstration applications provide an additional 3-point reward to enterprises meeting clean hydrogen conditions (7 points per 100 mt, with 1 point rewarding 100,000 yuan). Xuyang Hydrogen successfully passed the certification of the "Standards and Evaluation for Low-Carbon Hydrogen, Clean Hydrogen, and Renewable Hydrogen" on the National Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Vehicle Demonstration Evaluation Platform, becoming one of the first enterprises in China to officially obtain clean hydrogen certification in demonstration city clusters. Interpretation of China's Low-Carbon Hydrogen Policy System National Top-Level Strategic Layout 1. "Medium and Long-Term Development Plan for the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)" For the first time, hydrogen energy is positioned as an important component of the national energy system, clarifying the strategic direction for the development of the hydrogen energy industry and providing policy guidance. It proposes the construction of a "1+N" policy framework, covering technology R&D, industrial application, and standard construction, forming a systematic policy support system. 2. "Implementation Plan for Accelerating Clean and Low-Carbon Hydrogen Applications in the Industrial Sector" By 2027, the plan aims to achieve large-scale application of low-carbon hydrogen in industries such as metallurgy, chemical, and refining, promoting deep integration of hydrogen energy with traditional industries. It supports integrated "hydrogen production + hydrogen use" projects, promotes new models such as offshore wind power hydrogen production and industrial waste heat coupling hydrogen production, and fosters diversified development of the hydrogen energy industry. 3. "Energy Law of the People's Republic of China" For the first time, the law establishes the energy attribute of hydrogen, providing a legal basis for the development of the hydrogen energy industry and ensuring its long-term stable development. It promotes the inclusion of hydrogen energy in the national energy management system, facilitates the coordinated development of hydrogen energy and traditional energy, and enhances the overall efficiency of the energy system. Implementation Plan for Clean and Low-Carbon Hydrogen Applications in the Industrial Sector The industrial sector is a key area for hydrogen energy applications. According to the International Energy Agency, by 2030, hydrogen metallurgy is expected to achieve large-scale application, with global annual hydrogen demand reaching 6.6-14 million mt; green methanol and green ammonia will require over 48 million mt of hydrogen annually. Accelerating clean and low-carbon hydrogen applications in the industrial sector is an important measure to fully and accurately implement the new development philosophy, a crucial path to promote energy conservation and carbon reduction, and a significant direction to drive high-quality development of the hydrogen energy industry and cultivate new quality productive forces. Overall Requirements: Fully implement the deployment of the National New Industrialization Promotion Conference, adhere to the new development philosophy, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, and expand the application scenarios of clean and low-carbon hydrogen in the industrial sector. Strengthen supply-demand matching, accelerate the upgrading of technology, equipment, and products, and promote the integrated development of the industry chain: create new growth points for industrial transformation and upgrading, and form new quality productive forces. Main Goals: By 2027, significant progress will be made in the equipment support and technology promotion of clean and low-carbon hydrogen applications in the industrial sector. Large-scale applications will be achieved in industries such as metallurgy, synthetic ammonia, synthetic methanol, and refining, with demonstration applications in industrial green microgrids, ships, aviation, and rail transit. A batch of commercial application models for hydrogen energy in transportation, power generation, and ESS will be formed. A group of leading enterprises and industrial clusters with strong industrial ecological dominance, as well as system solution providers with high professional levels and strong service capabilities, will be cultivated, initially building a relatively complete industry chain and industrial system. Key Tasks of the Clean and Low-Carbon Hydrogen Implementation Plan Guarantee Measures for the Clean and Low-Carbon Hydrogen Implementation Plan Local Policy Innovation and Practice Local Subsidy Policies In 2024, Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area introduced 18 hydrogen energy subsidy policies, with a maximum support of 20 million yuan per project. The subsidy for hydrogen sales prices at hydrogen refueling stations reached 10 yuan/kg, effectively reducing enterprise costs. Many regions provide preferential electricity prices for renewable energy hydrogen production projects, such as 0.25 yuan/kWh, reducing the cost of green hydrogen to below 18 yuan/kg and enhancing the competitiveness of the green hydrogen market. Regional Collaborative Development Regions such as Chengdu-Chongqing and the Yangtze River Delta have planned "hydrogen corridors," building hydrogen refueling station networks and promoting cross-regional hydrogen logistics systems to foster regional hydrogen energy industry collaboration. Through regional collaboration, optimize the allocation of hydrogen energy resources, enhance the overall efficiency of the hydrogen energy industry, and promote the large-scale development of the hydrogen energy industry. Highway Fee Reduction Policies Provinces such as Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan-Chongqing, Jilin, and Shaanxi have issued policies to reduce highway fees for hydrogen vehicles. Based on the full life cycle calculation of fuel cell heavy trucks, it is estimated that each vehicle can save about 300,000 yuan. Various regions are exploring the construction of hydrogen highways, further promoting the large-scale development of hydrogen vehicles. Significance of Local Policy Innovation Local policy innovation provides diversified support for the development of the hydrogen energy industry, stimulating market vitality and promoting the development of the hydrogen energy industry in different regions according to local conditions. Through local policy guidance, promote the deep integration of the hydrogen energy industry with local economic development, form industrial clusters, and enhance regional economic competitiveness. Industrial Support and Standard Construction Financial Support Policies: In 2024, central government financial support for fuel cell vehicle demonstration rewards reached 1.625 billion yuan, with a cumulative total of 2.767 billion yuan, strongly promoting the development of the fuel cell vehicle industry. Financial support policies provide funding guarantees for enterprise technology R&D and market promotion, accelerating the commercialization process of the hydrogen energy industry and enhancing the scale effect of the industry. Standard System Construction: The release of the world's first green hydrogen standard promotes hydrogen carbon footprint accounting and international mutual recognition, accelerates green certification of the industry chain, and enhances China's international discourse power in the hydrogen energy industry. A sound standard system helps regulate market order, ensure product quality, promote the sustainable development of the hydrogen energy industry, and enhance international competitiveness. Significance of Industrial Support and Standard Construction: Industrial support policies and standard system construction provide comprehensive support for the development of the hydrogen energy industry, promoting technological innovation and market expansion. Through policy guidance and standard norms, promote the high-quality development of the hydrogen energy industry, enhance China's position in the global hydrogen energy industry, and contribute to achieving carbon neutrality goals. Market Size and Technological Breakthroughs 1. Cost Decline Trend The cost of green hydrogen is expected to decrease from the current 20-25 yuan/kg to 15 yuan/kg by 2030. The large-scale electrolyzer capacity is projected to reach 250,000 mt/year by 2025, driving the large-scale application of hydrogen energy. Cost reduction will enhance the competitiveness of the hydrogen energy market, promote the rapid development of the hydrogen energy industry, accelerate the application of hydrogen energy technology in various fields, and drive energy transformation. 2. Installation Growth Forecast By 2025, hydrogen energy storage installations are expected to exceed 2GW, corresponding to a market size of 30 billion yuan. By 2030, the penetration rate of hydrogen energy in the ESS sector is projected to reach 15%, with the industry chain scale exceeding 10 trillion yuan, leading the energy revolution. Installation growth will promote the large-scale development of the hydrogen energy industry, enhance its position in the energy sector, and drive continuous innovation and upgrading of hydrogen energy technology, providing strong support for achieving carbon neutrality goals. 3. Significance of Market Size and Technological Breakthroughs Cost decline and installation growth will drive the rapid development of the hydrogen energy industry, enhancing its position and influence in the energy sector. Through technological innovation and industrial upgrading, accelerate the application of hydrogen energy technology in various fields, promote energy transformation and sustainable development, and contribute to achieving carbon neutrality goals. Click to view the special report on the 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Expo.