【SMM Weekly Review on Aluminum Downstream Sectors: Aluminum Cable Prices Defy Market Downtrend; Most Downstream Sectors Remain Under Pressure】

**SMM Update April 17, 2025**
This week, China's downstream aluminum processing industry exhibited diverging operating rates, with most sectors operating under pressure.
- Primary Aluminum Alloy: Operating rate declined by 0.6 percentage points (pp) to 55.4%, driven by waning seasonal demand and proactive production controls.
- Aluminum Plate/Sheet: Operating rate fell 0.6 pp to 68.0% amid shrinking export orders and slowing domestic demand growth.
- Aluminum Cable: Operating rate defied the trend, rising 2 pp to 63.6%, supported by accelerated grid project resumptions and restocking incentives from lower aluminum prices. Further upside potential remains.
- Aluminum Profiles: Operating rate held steady at 58.5%, with full solar production offset by planned output cuts and pending Middle East export shipments for construction profiles.
- Aluminum Foil: Operating rate stabilized at 73%, sustained by resilient demand for air-conditioning and battery foils, though a marginal decline is expected as the peak season ends.
- Recycled Aluminum: Operating rate remained flat at 56.1%, but weak terminal demand and cost pressures point to downward risks.

SMM forecasts——a slight 0.6 pp drop in the overall industry operating rate to 61.8% next week.

Sector Details：

Primary Aluminum Alloy
Leading producers' operating rate fell 0.6 pp to 55.4% this week. While U.S. tariff hikes have pressured downstream wheel exports, the direct impact on primary alloy production remains limited. The decline reflects seasonal demand softening and competitive production adjustments. SMM expects further minor declines next week.

Aluminum Plate/Sheet
Operating rate dipped 0.6 pp to 68.0%. Despite stabilizing aluminum prices and easing trade friction concerns, export order contractions and slowing domestic demand growth weighed on output. Weak macro trade dynamics and demand fluctuations will likely keep operating rates range-bound.

Aluminum Cable
Operating rate climbed 2 pp to 63.6%, extending its upward trajectory since March. Grid project resumptions and cost-driven restocking boosted production. Key regional procurement contracts (e.g., East China’s overhead insulated conductors and North China's 10kV power cables) have advanced to the bidding stage, solidifying order visibility. SMM anticipates sustained growth through late April.

Aluminum Profiles
Operating rate held at 58.5%. Automotive profiles saw limited order growth despite lower aluminum prices. Solar profiles maintained full output but plan gradual cuts next week. Construction profiles secured Middle East curtain wall export orders (shipment timing pending), while domestic orders stagnated.

Aluminum Foil
Operating rate stabilized at 73%. Demand for air-conditioning, battery, and brazing foils showed resilience but growth slowed. With the peak season nearing its end, a mild downward adjustment is expected.

Recycled Aluminum
Operating rate held at 56.1%. Narrower aluminum price fluctuations improved downstream purchasing sentiment slightly, but weak terminal demand and profit compression from price concessions continue to pressure the sector. SMM expects a steady-to-weak trend ahead.