【SMM Analysis】Current Challenges and Future Directions of the Sodium-Ion Battery Industry Amid the US-China Tariff War

Recently, the US-China tariff war has reignited, with US President Trump announcing "reciprocal tariffs" on trading partners on April 2, and China swiftly responding with equivalent countermeasures. The escalation of this trade friction has had a profound impact on multiple global industries. Although the emerging sodium-ion battery sector has been relatively less affected, it is unlikely to remain entirely unscathed in the long run.

Immediate Impact on Costs and Supply Chains

Currently, the global sodium-ion battery industry is still in its early stages of development and has yet to establish a mature and extensive supply chain system like that of lithium batteries. China has made significant progress in raw material production and battery manufacturing for sodium-ion batteries, with some companies leading globally in technology and capacity. However, the tariff war has significantly increased the import and export costs of sodium-ion battery products. If Chinese sodium-ion battery companies export batteries or related raw materials to the US, the combined tariffs—25% on lithium batteries, an additional 34%, and a further 50%—result in a total tariff rate exceeding 100%. This will undoubtedly lead to substantial price increases, severely undermining the competitiveness of Chinese sodium-ion battery products in the US market.

Take sodium carbonate, a key raw material for sodium-ion batteries, as an example. China is a major producer of sodium carbonate, which is primarily used in the food industry. After the tariff hike, the cost for US companies to import sodium carbonate from China has risen significantly, potentially forcing domestic US sodium carbonate producers to increase their own production.

Meanwhile, Chinese sodium-ion battery companies relying on imports of key equipment, technology, or specialized raw materials from the US will also face increased costs. This may lead to reduced R&D investment, slower new product launches, and adverse effects on the technological advancement of the entire industry.

Market Expansion Faces Obstacles

From a demand perspective, the US is a major global energy consumer, with significant demand for batteries in areas such as new energy vehicles and energy storage. Sodium-ion batteries, with their cost advantages and abundant resources, were poised to gradually capture market share in the US. However, the tariff war has hindered Chinese sodium-ion battery companies' exports to the US, severely disrupting market expansion plans. If Chinese automakers plan to export new energy vehicles equipped with sodium-ion batteries to the US, the exorbitant tariffs will push vehicle prices far beyond the affordability of US consumers, effectively closing the door to the US market for Chinese sodium-ion battery vehicles.

Moreover, the uncertainty brought by the trade war has made US companies more cautious in investing in sodium-ion battery-related projects. Some US companies that had planned to collaborate with Chinese firms or introduce Chinese sodium-ion battery technology may postpone or cancel these plans due to concerns about future policy risks, which is highly detrimental to the global promotion and application of sodium-ion battery technology.

Future Variables in Industry Development

Despite the current challenges, there are some positive variables for the long-term development of the sodium-ion battery industry. On one hand, the potential of the domestic Chinese market is immense. With the continuous promotion of policies such as "trade-in" for new energy vehicles, electric two-wheelers, and energy storage, the demand for batteries in these sectors is growing, providing vast development opportunities for the sodium-ion battery industry.

On the other hand, the global supply chain is undergoing rapid restructuring. Chinese sodium-ion battery companies can seize this opportunity to strengthen cooperation with Europe, other Asian countries, and emerging markets in Africa and Latin America, opening up new market spaces. For example, in Southeast Asia, as local economies develop and the demand for clean energy increases, the application of sodium-ion batteries in energy storage and electric two-wheelers is gradually emerging. Reducing reliance on a single market enhances the ability to respond to trade risks.

Additionally, policy support and market demand remain crucial drivers for the development of the sodium-ion battery industry. The global urgency for clean energy transition is growing, and government incentives for new energy technologies will not change due to the trade war. Sodium-ion batteries, with their abundant resources and environmental friendliness, will continue to receive policy favor. In the future, as technology advances, the performance of sodium-ion batteries is expected to improve further, and costs will decrease, allowing them to occupy a more significant position in the global energy market.

The US-China tariff war has brought severe challenges to the development of the sodium-ion battery industry but has also accelerated industry transformation and adjustment. The sodium-ion battery industry must actively address the uncertainties brought by trade friction by strengthening technological innovation, expanding diversified markets, and improving supply chain systems to achieve sustainable development.