Finished product inventories of copper foil declined in March, while the operating rate in the industry continued to rise[SMM Analysis]

According to SMM, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises in March 2025 was 71.82%, up 4.17 percentage points MoM and 11.38 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 75.20%, medium-sized enterprises was 55.35%, and small enterprises was 70.18%. Specifically, the operating rate of electronic circuit copper foil was 76.57%, up 7.36 percentage points MoM and 6.27 percentage points YoY, while the operating rate of lithium battery copper foil was 69.38%, up 2.53 percentage points MoM and 14.28 percentage points YoY. The overall operating rate of the copper foil industry is expected to rise to 72.77% in April 2025.

The operating rate of copper foil enterprises in March 2025 was 71.82%
In March 2025, the operating rates of both lithium battery and electronic circuit copper foil in China increased. In the lithium battery copper foil sector, downstream segments showed recovery, with operating rates of battery cell manufacturers in the power and ESS sectors rising, and consumer battery cell inventories being reduced, leading to an overall increase in raw material procurement demand. In the electronic circuit copper foil sector, 3C electronics consumption saw significant growth driven by the "trade-in" subsidy policies in many regions. Additionally, the average copper price in March rose, boosting downstream stockpiling demand.
Raw material and finished product inventory levels in the copper foil industry declined in March
The finished product inventory/output ratio in the copper foil industry fell 3.04 percentage points MoM to 16.44% in March. After the Chinese New Year holiday in February, enterprises engaged in stockpiling, and downstream orders surged in March, particularly with a notable increase in electronic circuit copper foil shipments, leading to a decline in industry finished product inventory levels. The raw material inventory ratio fell 0.75 percentage points MoM to 17.15%, partly due to increased copper foil production and partly because enterprises reduced stockpiling and focused on just-in-time procurement after significant fluctuations in copper prices.

The operating rate of the copper foil industry is forecasted to climb to 72.77% in April 2025
SMM expects the overall operating rate of copper foil enterprises to reach 72.77% in April 2025, up 0.95 percentage points MoM and 1.86 percentage points YoY. The operating rate of lithium battery copper foil is expected to be 69.77%, up 0.39 percentage points MoM and 2.47 percentage points YoY. The operating rate of electronic circuit copper foil is expected to be 78.60%, up 2.04 percentage points MoM and 1.07 percentage points YoY. SMM predicts that the operating rates of copper foil enterprises will continue to rise across the board in April. In the lithium battery copper foil sector, terminal orders are expected to maintain steady growth, but attention should be paid to the potential slowdown in downstream demand growth due to factors such as tariff policies, which may lead to a decline in production schedules. In the electronic circuit copper foil sector, terminal consumption is in a seasonal peak, and copper foil enterprises will continue to increase production schedules amid rapid growth in 3C electronics-related orders. However, it is worth noting that copper prices plummeted after the Qingming holiday, and if the center of copper prices continues to decline, it may lead to delays in downstream stockpiling demand, resulting in new orders falling short of expectations.