Will There Be a "Heaven and Hell" Scenario for the Import of Secondary Copper Raw Material in 2025?

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap in January 2025 were 189,200 mt, down 13.03% MoM and up 1.48% YoY. In February, imports slightly increased to 193,400 mt, up 2.22% MoM and up 26.77% YoY. The cumulative imports for January-February 2025 were 382,500 mt, up 12.86% YoY. (HS code 74040000)

US Imports Show Significant Fluctuations, Trump's Tariff Expectations Have Far-Reaching Impact

In terms of import sources, there were notable fluctuations in secondary copper raw material imports during January-February 2025, with the US factor being particularly prominent. Customs data shows that in January, US exports of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap to China were 39,400 mt, down 10.32% MoM but up 17.66% YoY, accounting for 20.81% of China's total imports, ranking first. In February, US exports to China plummeted to 31,400 mt, a significant drop of 20.35% MoM, and only a slight increase of 0.55% YoY. Although the US remains the largest source of secondary copper imports for China, its share has significantly declined to 16.22%.

This change was anticipated by the market. Since November 2024, many domestic traders have suspended receiving shipments from the US due to expectations of tariffs on imported copper by Trump. Based on shipping schedules, it is expected that imports of secondary copper raw materials from the US will see a noticeable decline in January-February 2025. The expectation of Trump's tariffs not only affected copper trade between China and the US but also led to changes in the global copper supply chain.

Raw material supply is tight for secondary copper, import losses exacerbate supply pressure. According to SMM, the current market supply of secondary copper raw material is extremely tight, with both domestic and imported sources in short supply. An importer in Ningbo revealed that after the Chinese New Year, as downstream enterprises released their restocking demand, market supply further decreased, intensifying the supply tension.

In terms of import profit/loss, the expectation that Trump may impose tariffs on imported copper has prompted the flow of copper cathode to the US. As a result, COMEX copper prices surged, and the price spread between COMEX and LME copper continued to widen, reaching new highs, which also drove up LME copper prices. This series of chain reactions led to comprehensive import losses for secondary copper raw materials in 2025, significantly reducing traders' purchase willingness.

Some secondary copper processing enterprises stated that due to severe import losses, they have suspended import operations. Recently, factory production has been entirely dependent on domestic sources. However, the domestic supply of secondary copper is also tight, further increasing the production resistance for these enterprises.

In summary, in the short term, the tight supply of secondary copper raw material is unlikely to ease. Affected by the anticipated Trump tariffs and high global copper prices, the situation of import losses may not improve, and traders' purchase willingness is likely to remain low, leading to weak growth in imports. Therefore, it is expected that US exports of copper scrap to China in March 2025 may continue to decline, further squeezing import sources. In the medium and long term, if global copper prices pull back, the supply chain stabilizes, and China increases its policy support for renewable resources, imports of secondary copper are expected to gradually rebound. Meanwhile, the growing demand for copper from downstream industries such as new energy and electronics could also drive a recovery in import volumes. However, the import landscape may undergo structural changes, with an increased share of supplies coming from Southeast Asia, Europe, and other regions, to diversify dependence on the US market.