[SMM Analysis: Post-Holiday Sluggish Consumption Leads to Varying Degrees of Inventory Buildup Among Enterprises] In February, the operating rate of secondary copper rod reached 26.81%, lower than the expected 31.7%. After the Chinese New Year holiday, copper prices initially rose and then pulled back, climbing to a high of 78,500 yuan/mt before moving sideways within the range of 76,500-77,500 yuan/mt. Following the rapid increase in copper prices after the holiday, the price difference between primary metal and scrap quickly narrowed to 2,800 yuan/mt, while the price difference between primary and secondary copper rods widened to 1,370 yuan/mt. Although the economic benefits of secondary copper rods became somewhat evident, end-user enterprises and traders remained cautious. Due to the further rise in copper prices compared to pre-holiday levels, post-holiday orders from end-user wire and cable enterprises were scarce, and restocking demand has yet to materialize...

[SMM Monthly Outlook: Copper Prices Post Two Consecutive Monthly Gains; Will the "Trump Recession Trade" Weigh on Copper Prices?] Despite frequent "shifts" in external macro conditions, domestic policy support expectations, combined with tight copper concentrate supply and the imported copper concentrate index (monthly) dropping into negative territory, drove copper prices to continue their monthly gains in February. LME copper closed February with a 2.88% increase, while SHFE copper ended the month with a 1.71% gain. Since the beginning of March, the macro sentiment from the Two Sessions has been relatively positive; the market is gradually entering the traditional peak consumption season, and the domestic inventory turning point has arrived, further supporting the rise in copper prices.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 11 Mar, 2025

[SMM BC Copper Commentary: Market Risk Appetite Declines, BC Copper Most-Traded Contract Closes Lower] SMM March 11 News: Today, the most-traded BC copper 2504 futures contract opened at 69,760 yuan/mt, closed with a bearish candlestick intraday, with the lower shadow piercing through the 10-day and 20-day moving averages...

[SMM Spot Copper] During the day, mainstream standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to on-par prices against the front-month contract, while high-quality copper was quoted at on-par prices to a premium of 20 yuan/mt. Downstream orders slightly improved during the day, but finished product inventories at plants still need to be cleared, and sentiment in spot trades remained weak. As the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2403 contract approaches, spot premiums are expected to fluctuate rangebound around parity.

Today, spot copper cathode in North China was at a discount of 170-130 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 150 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Transaction prices were 77,380-77,640 yuan/mt, with an average price of 77,510 yuan/mt, down 580 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,531.5/mt, initially fluctuating upward to an intraday high of $9,574/mt. It then fluctuated downward, hitting a low of $9,488/mt near the close before slightly rebounding to settle at $9,493/mt, down 1.14%.