[SMM Survey] Pig Iron Production Declined Significantly in November, Expected to Continue Declining in December

According to SMM's tracking survey data, 21 blast furnaces underwent maintenance in November, reducing daily pig iron production by 99,000 mt, affecting a total of 1.3292 million mt of pig iron production for the month. The maintenance of blast furnaces was mainly concentrated in north China. Meanwhile, 11 blast furnaces resumed production, increasing daily pig iron production by 59,300 mt, raising November's pig iron production by a total of 700,000 mt. The resumption of blast furnaces was mainly concentrated in north and east China. The impact of blast furnace maintenance significantly increased in November. SMM data shows that blast furnace maintenance in November led to a net reduction of 5.8873 million mt in pig iron production, an increase of 489,000 mt compared to October. The average daily reduction in pig iron production was about 16,300 mt.

Entering December, steel mills in Xinjiang began their winter break, coupled with annual maintenance of blast furnaces at some steel mills. According to SMM's tracking survey, 10 blast furnaces are scheduled for maintenance in December, reducing daily pig iron production by 34,500 mt; conversely, 8 blast furnaces are scheduled to resume production, increasing daily pig iron production by 36,600 mt. Based on the current data, it is expected that blast furnace maintenance in December will affect a total of 6.2943 million mt of pig iron, an increase of 407,000 mt compared to November, with an average daily reduction of about 13,100 mt.

SMM expects that, based on the current profitability of steel mills, most steel mills still have marginal profits. Additionally, steel mill finished product inventories are at relatively low levels this year, and production enthusiasm remains moderate. Considering environmental protection-driven production restrictions and the annual maintenance plans of some steel mills' blast furnaces, SMM expects the actual number of blast furnaces undergoing maintenance in December to be higher than the current statistics. Pig iron production in December is expected to continue its slight decline. SMM will continue to track this situation weekly.