The Southeast Asian steel industry stands at a critical historical juncture. On one hand, the region is experiencing an unprecedented wave of capacity expansion, with Chinese capital-driven investments planning to add over 100 million mt of new capacity, and a duopoly between Vietnam and Indonesia has already taken shape. On the other hand, the EU carbon border tax and global decarbonization requirements are compelling industry to undergo a green transformation, posing severe challenges to traditional development models. Key trends indicate that a capacity race and green transformation are advancing in tandem; regional supply chains are being restructured, with self-sufficiency rates increasing, yet high-end products still rely on imports; national infrastructure projects provide solid support for demand, but the risk of overcapacity cannot be ignored. The key to future competition lies in balancing scale expansion with quality improvement, traditional capacity with green transformation, and short-term gains with long-term sustainability. Enterprises that can achieve breakthroughs in low-carbon technologies, product structures, and market positioning will take the lead in the next round of industrial reshuffling. The major transformation in Southeast Asia's steel industry is not only reshaping the regional industrial landscape but also profoundly impact global steel trade and supply chains.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review: SS Futures Struggle to Hold at 13,000 yuan/mt, Spot Prices Follow Decline with Sluggish Trading] SMM, September 17 — SS futures continued to trade in the doldrums. Driven by broad weakness across metal futures, SS futures followed the downward trend, trading below 13,000 yuan/mt throughout the day and even briefly falling below 12,900 yuan/mt. On the spot market, the weakness in SS futures further intensified cautious wait-and-see sentiment among stainless steel end-users. Although traders offered discounts under sales pressure, inquiries and transactions remained sluggish during the day. For futures, the most-traded contract 2511 moved lower. At 10:30 a.m., SS2510 was quoted at 12,910 yuan/mt, down 135 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 360-660 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was 8,150 yuan/mt; the average price for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil was 13,250 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil was 25,750 yuan/mt in Wuxi and Foshan; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil was quoted at 25,150 yuan/mt in both regions; cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,600 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan. Although the market has entered the traditional September-October peak season consumption period, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts are gradually approaching, providing room for domestic moderately accommodative monetary policies, the market's outlook for stainless steel this month...

Iron ore futures held up well today, with the most-traded contract I2601 closing at 804.5, down 0.12% from the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell, while steel mills mainly purchased as needed. Market trading sentiment was moderate.

According to the SMM survey, as of September 17, the blast furnace operating rate among the 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM stood at 86.38%, up 0.22 percentage points WoW.

Looking ahead, as overseas demand enters the peak season, overseas prices are expected to rise further, restoring normal domestic-overseas price spreads. Although tax-free orders may decrease, tax-included prices remain competitive, and orders should steadily return to normal levels. As SMM currently observes, some state-owned steel mills have seen improved orders due to reduced price disruptions from such practices, while traders avoiding them are actively seeking other orders to compensate.  

Forging or purchasing customs clearance documents from other import and export firms refers to an export method where enterprises or individuals without export rights purchase a set of legitimate export declaration documents from import and export companies with operating rights to export goods and declare them to customs

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review: SS Futures Jump Initially and Then Pull Back With Strong Resistance Above 13,000 yuan/mt, Stainless Steel Spot Prices Pull Back and Trading Remains Weak] SMM, September 16: SS futures continued to show a pattern of jumping initially and then pulling back. Although the night session performed strongly overall, successfully breaking through 13,100 yuan/mt, the daytime session opened lower and gradually declined, falling back below 13,000 yuan/mt. In the spot market, morning trading was driven by the strong performance of SS futures, with traders raising their offers accordingly; however, actual transactions were relatively scarce. Subsequently, as futures weakened and agents lowered prices to move inventory, market offers followed suit downward, and sales pressure led to somewhat chaotic pricing. Downstream buyers exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment, and actual transactions remained weak. On the futures side, the most-traded contract 2511 jumped initially and then pulled back. At 10:30 a.m., SS2510 was quoted at 13,045 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 275-575 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,150 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi was 13,300 yuan/mt and in Foshan 13,330 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil, the price in Wuxi was 25,800 yuan/mt and in Foshan 25,800 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, both locations reported 25,200 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled 430/2B coil, both Wuxi and Foshan reported 7,600 yuan/mt. Although the market has entered the traditional consumption peak season of "September-October peak season"...

Iron ore futures held up well today, with the most-traded contract I2601 closing at 803.5, up 0.82% WoW. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in selling, while steel mills mainly purchased as needed. The market trading atmosphere was moderate.

As of September 16, the operating rate of 50 EAF steel mills mainly producing construction materials nationwide was 38.5%, down 1.22% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 39.03%, down 1.79% from the previous period; the daily average production of construction materials was 86,900 mt, down 4,000 mt from the previous period.

[Domestic Iron Ore Brief: Iron Ore Concentrate Prices in Tangshan Expected to Remain Volatile] The domestic iron ore market in Tangshan remains stable with a wait-and-see approach. The current ex-factory price for 66% grade iron ore concentrates on a dry basis, including tax, is 1,000–1,005 yuan/mt. Overall operations at mines and beneficiation plants remain at relatively low levels, and the supply of iron ore concentrates in the market remains tight. Steel mills continue to purchase cautiously, as recent profit margins have narrowed, leading to a predominance of purchasing as needed. Demand weakness is evident, and overall market transactions remain relatively sluggish.