Limited support from improvements in fundamentals, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate next week.

At the beginning of the week, ore prices touched new lows before stabilizing and rebounding. From a supply and demand perspective, according to SMM shipping data, this week global iron ore shipments increased significantly by 15.5% WoW, with shipments to China also rising sharply by 27.8%; meanwhile, iron ore arrivals grew by 10.52%. On the demand side, the daily average output of pig iron from blast furnaces in steel mills remained stable. As the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday approached, some steel mills needed to restock, leading to an increase in overall iron ore demand. On the industrial side, this week saw a significant increase in apparent demand for rebar, and the destocking speed of the five major steel products exceeded expectations, indicating some improvement in end-user demand. On the macroeconomic side, there were ongoing rumors about special treasury bonds and reductions in existing mortgage rates. Considering all these factors, iron ore prices rebounded this week. In terms of port prices, the spot price of PB Fines in Shandong fell by 12 yuan/mt WoW. Looking ahead to next week, iron ore supply is expected to remain relatively stable, but the formation of Typhoon No. 13 may impact some domestic ports, potentially reducing arrivals. Although steel mill profits have somewhat recovered, overall profit margins remain low, leading to a slow pace in the resumption of blast furnace production and limited growth in pig iron output. Port inventories might see a slight decrease. However, considering the upcoming National Day holiday, demand for restocking by steel mills is likely to rise, sustaining the growth in iron ore demand. Current market sentiment has improved but remains pessimistic. Next week, key factors to focus on include changes in end-user demand, domestic macroeconomic data, and the impact of the US Fed's rate cuts on ore prices. Overall, the rebound in iron ore prices next week may be limited, with prices likely to fluctuate.