Rare Earth Prices Jumped Initially and Then Pull Back Amid Intense Back-and-Forth Negotiations Between Upstream and Downstream [SMM Analysis]

Published: Sep 14, 2024 11:36
Source: SMM
Entering September, with the listing prices of rare earths released by China Northern Rare Earth up MoM, market confidence was greatly boosted.

Entering September, with the listing prices of rare earths released by China Northern Rare Earth up MoM, market confidence was greatly boosted. Meanwhile, news of customs clearance issues for auxiliary materials in Myanmar spread rapidly, exacerbating the already tight supply of Myanmar minerals, leading to a rapid increase in rare earth oxide prices. As of September 9, the price of Pr-Nd oxide had risen by 8.6% compared to August 30, dysprosium oxide by about 9%, and terbium oxide by an astonishing 15.5%.

Against the backdrop of rapidly rising rare earth prices, the order situation for downstream magnetic material companies did not meet expectations. Some magnetic material companies reported that since entering September, end-user order volumes had not significantly increased, despite frequent positive news from upstream and continuous price hikes from holders. However, this also led to a growing market fear of high prices.

Starting from the afternoon of September 9, due to the low purchase willingness of downstream buyers, reduced shipments from traders fearing high prices, and the comprehensive impact of large producers' bidding for metal products, rare earth prices began to pull back. Even so, the quotes from upstream separation plants remained relatively firm, resulting in a slow decline in rare earth prices. Under these circumstances, SMM expects that rare earth prices will gradually stabilize in the future.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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[SMM Rare Earth Daily Review: Rare earth market prices in the doldrums, actual transactions struggle to gain traction] Overall, the market shifted from yesterday's consolidation to a weaker trend today, with declines concentrated mainly in the terbium and Pr-Nd series. The transaction side remained sluggish, with downstream demand dominated by small rigid orders and actual negotiations centered around low-priced cargoes, while inquiries for other varieties stayed steady. In the short term, with the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday approaching, pre-holiday stockpiling expectations still exist, but both the cost side and transaction side have weakened, and Pr-Nd prices may move sideways within a narrow range. Whether the upward momentum can follow through still depends on the pace of stockpiling demand release from magnetic material enterprises.
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[SMM Rare Earth Morning Meeting Summary] Pr-Nd oxide consolidated on a subdued note in the afternoon with more seller concessions, dysprosium remained stable while terbium held steady at low levels, and magnetic material activity was moderate.
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[SMM Rare Earth Morning Meeting Summary] Pr-Nd oxide consolidated on a subdued note in the afternoon with more seller concessions, dysprosium remained stable while terbium held steady at low levels, and magnetic material activity was moderate.
[SMM Rare Earth Morning Meeting Summary] Pr-Nd oxide consolidated on a subdued note in the afternoon with more seller concessions, dysprosium remained stable while terbium held steady at low levels, and magnetic material activity was moderate.
[Pr-Nd oxide consolidates on a subdued note in the afternoon with more seller concessions, dysprosium stable while terbium holds at lows, magnetic material activity moderate] Yesterday, Pr-Nd oxide was affected by fluctuations in futures prices. In the afternoon, seller concessions increased somewhat, while magnetic material enterprises showed weak willingness to enter the market. Low-priced sources remained the mainstay of transactions, with actual shipments limited. Dysprosium oxide quotes held steady, with limited inquiries and sporadic deals. Terbium oxide high-level offers still struggled to find takers, and suppliers made slight price concessions to facilitate shipments, with actual negotiated prices on the lower side.
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