In July, China's NPI+FeNi imports reached 820,800 mt, up 18.3% MoM [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, in July 2024, China's NPI+FeNi imports reached 820,800 mt, up 18.3% MoM and 7.8% YoY. In terms of metal content, the imports in July amounted to 114,000 mt (Ni contained), up 19.6% MoM and 8.6% YoY.

By category, the main increase in July imports was concentrated in NPI, with NPI imports reaching 792,600 mt, up 19.9% MoM and 8.5% YoY. In July, there were no new quotas from Indonesia's RKAB, and the tight supply of raw materials for smelters continued. The total volume of nickel ore imported from the Philippines continued to rise, pushing up nickel ore premiums and increasing smelter costs. During the month, NPI prices fluctuated upwards due to stable demand from stainless steel mills and high NPI costs. Some traders secured low-priced July supplies in June, which arrived in ports successively, and the increase in new capacity also contributed to the significant increase in NPI inflows to China. According to SMM, although there will be new Indonesian NPI capacity in August, the sluggish stainless steel market and continued low demand for raw materials have led to a pullback in raw material prices, highlighting market panic. Trading volume may be lower than expected, and it is expected that Indonesian NPI inflows to China in August will pull back slightly compared to July.

Regarding FeNi, July FeNi imports amounted to 28,200 mt, down 14.2% MoM and 8.6% YoY. In terms of metal content, it was 6,200 mt (Ni contained), down 16.8% MoM and 21.1% YoY. The total volume from countries other than South Korea declined in July. Due to geopolitical impacts, New Caledonia's Koniambo and Doniambo projects maintained low operating rates, and it is expected that H2 production will remain low, with limited inflows to China. In July, FeNi imports from New Caledonia decreased by approximately 26.46% MoM. Due to low LME nickel prices, overseas FeNi smelters experienced varying degrees of losses. It is expected that the operating rates of major FeNi-producing countries such as Colombia, the Dominican Republic, North Macedonia, and Brazil will be lower than expected, and total imports may remain low. FeNi imports in August are expected to continue to decline.