SMM July Indonesian NPI Production and August Forecast

【U.S.-Backed Consortium Eyes $500M-$600M Investment in Tanzania's Kabanga Nickel Project】 U.S.-backed investment consortium Orion CMC is in talks with Lifezone Metals to invest approximately $500 million-$600 million in Tanzania's Kabanga nickel project and acquire a sizable minority stake in Kabanga Nickel, while Lifezone Metals would retain control. Kabanga is one of the world's major high-grade nickel sulfide deposits, with the first phase expected to produce about 350,000 tonnes of nickel concentrate annually alongside copper and cobalt by-products. A downstream refinery is also planned to produce nickel sulfate for battery applications.

DAILY PRICE UPDATE Daily Price Update — August 21, 2026 Indonesian nickel ore CIF average prices increased across all three grades, with the strongest gain recorded for 1.6% Ni ore. • 1.4% Ni: CIF average price stayed the same $53.3/wmt. • 1.5% Ni: CIF average price stayed the same $60.8/wmt, • 1.6% Ni: CIF average price stayed the same $65.8/wmt, • Premium: Market players verified that the premium remained stable compared with the first half of August, with no significant change in the prevailing premium level. =================================================================== Indonesia Latest Policy Update — August 21, 2026 Indonesia’s planned Mineral and Strategic Commodities Exchange remains the main recent policy development relevant to nickel. The government said the exchange is expected to cover nickel, coal and palm oil, with operations targeted for January 1, 2027, aiming to establish domestic reference prices for strategic commodities. • Nickel impact: The exchange could strengthen Indonesia’s influence over nickel price formation and domestic benchmarks, potentially giving Indonesian prices a greater role in the international market. • Latest development: State Secretary Minister Prasetyo Hadi said on August 17 that preparations are underway for the exchange, tentatively referred to as Icomex. Morowali, Central Sulawesi: August is generally a relatively favorable period, and the current forecast indicates minimal rainfall, so mining, hauling and port operations should remain largely normal. • Indonesia: ESDM has begun approving revised 2026 RKAB applications, with some previously suspended nickel miners allowed to resume operations. The additional nickel ore quota remains undisclosed, leaving the supply impact unclear. The revision is expected to focus on addressing smelter ore shortages rather than broadly increasing mining quotas. • Halmahera: Higher seasonal rainfall risk than Morowali. Halmahera has a humid climate even in August, with rainfall occurring on many days. However, the current weekly forecast indicates limited rainfall, so no major disruption is expected this week. • Therefore, for Indonesia, Halmahera is the region to watch for rain, rather than Morowali.

[SMM Nickel Flash] According to customs data, China's high-grade NPI imports continued their downward trend in July 2026, declining for the third consecutive month and hitting a new low for the year.