SMM analysis on China June solar cell output and July forecast

In June, China's solar cell production reached 54.79 GW, including 11.89 GW of PERC solar cells, 40.15 GW of N-type Topcon cells, 1.14 GW of HJT cells, and 1.6 GW of BC cells. The supply and demand for PERC cells were relatively balanced, with scheduled production declining in line with demand. Topcon cells experienced inventory accumulation for two consecutive months, and companies were forced to significantly reduce production in June amid losses. The production of HJT cells slightly increased, while that of BC cells stabilised.

Looking ahead to July, the scheduled production of PERC cells is expected to continue declining, while that of N-type Topcon and HJT cells is projected to increase. The total scheduled production for July is estimated to be around 58.41 GW, with the increase mainly coming from major integrated manufacturers for low-price stockpiling. Currently, the transaction prices in the PV wafer market have risen due to market sentiment, prompting module manufacturers to ramp up cell production and accelerate stocking. As the self-sufficiency rate of cells among integrated manufacturers increases, the demand for external procurement weakens, putting pressure on non-integrated solar cell producers, who generally lowered their operating rates in July. However, the overall market still sees an oversupply of N-type cells, leading to continued inventory accumulation.