Recently, the increase in cost pressure has led to a significant decrease in the purchase of polysilicon, especially N-type polysilicon materials, by downstream polysilicon processing enterprises. This has been followed by a significant increase in polysilicon inventory and a continued decline in market expectations for the price of this round of polysilicon orders.
According to SMM, as of last weekend, the silicon material inventory of domestic polysilicon manufacturers has exceeded 100,000 tons, and some companies' own inventories have even reached around 20,000 tons, and the proportion of N-type silicon materials has increased significantly. As the proportion of downstream investment in popcorn polysilicon and granular silicon increases, the popularity of the N-type market has significantly decreased. According to SMM, the proportion of granular silicon used in some processing companies in raw materials has reached about 40%.
With the increasing cost pressure on processing companies and the increase in polysilicon inventory, this round of expected contract signing prices has dropped again - since last week, some second- and third-tier polysilicon plants have seen a low price of 68 yuan/kg. This week, SMM learned that some processing enterprises stated that it expected the price to be as low as 65 yuan/kg, and polysilicon buyers expected prices fell again! But it is undeniable that leading polysilicon companies are still trying to support the market - without quotations and transactions. The atmosphere of competition between the two sides of the market is gradually rising.
SMM believes that the current round of polysilicon transactions has gradually shifted to the buyer's market, and some polysilicon plants are facing greater inventory pressure, and due to the substantial overlay of silicon wafers in the early stage, they are no longer able to support the "high" silicon material prices - there is a possibility of a sharp decline in polysilicon in this round. At the same time, in Q2 of 2024, key production capacities such as Yongxiang Yunnan Phase II, Daqo Inner Mongolia Phase II, and Oriental Hope Ningxia will be put into production one after another, which will have a certain negative impact on the polysilicon market.