SHFE nickel prices rebounded, but fundamentals remain bearish

Nickel prices hit bottom and rebounded last week, with a peak daily increase of about 5.2%. By last Friday's close, SHFE nickel prices fell back to 129,380 yuan/mt. On the macro front, the US Labor Department announced on the evening of November 30 that the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 25 were 218,000, compared to the previous value of 209,000, and market expectations of 220,000. Another key data was the US initial jobless claims in the week ending November 18, which were 1.927 million, expected at 1.872 million, and the previous value was 1.84 million. It is worth noting that the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 25 include the Thanksgiving holiday, and there is typically significant volatility in the numbers around holidays. All these data reflect a cooling of the US labor market, leading to increased market expectations for a subsequent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This had a positive impact on commodities in general, but pure nickel was not significantly affected by macro sentiment due to fundamental drag. From a fundamental perspective, according to SMM research, some small electrowinning nickel enterprises reduced output in November. It is anticipated that certain enterprises will resume normal production in December. This has no significant impact on the overall oversupply situation. Additionally, due to the continuous decline in nickel sulphate price and the rebound in SHFE nickel, the premium of nickel sulphate over nickel briquette narrowed to around 1,000 yuan/mt. The production of nickel sulphate from nickel briquette is once again unprofitable. Looking at the downstream demand, alloy orders remained relatively stable overall, with a slight reduction in civilian orders compared to the previous month, leading to a minor decline in pure nickel demand. In summary, the current macro situation continues to improve, but the fundamental pressure on SHFE nickel hinders upward momentum, and there is still downward potential.